Monthly Archives: November 2009

Anatomy of a useless trade

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Paul Vargas at Section Five Twenty-Eight rounded up some free-agent first basemen the Mets should avoid a couple of weeks ago, and noted that Ross Gload was traded from the Rockies to the Mets as part of the monstrous Jeromy Burnitz trade in January of 2002, then sold back to the Rockies five days later.

This is particularly hilarious, because the Mets traded cash to the Rockies as part of the original deal, so basically it was the Major League equivalent of backsies. “You know what? Never mind on this Gload kid. We don’t have as much money in the bank as we thought we did; Mo Vaughn is eating us out of house and home.”

The whole saga must have been a rollercoaster ride for Gload, who grew up a Mets fan in the Hamptons and had only been picked up by the Rockies off waivers from the Cubs that September.

When you think of it, really, baseball’s whole system of roster management is pretty savage. I understand that it’s the system in place, and that I kind of make my living off of it, plus it’s probably something young players are prepared for. And the Major Leaguers are certainly well-compensated.

But man, could anything be worse than to have to pick up your whole life and move just because Steve Phillips says you have to?

Which brings me to the real point about the Burnitz deal. It was a pretty amazing example of the plain redirection of unspectacular players in bulk. Check it out:

The Mets traded Lenny Harris, Glendon Rusch, Todd Zeile, Benny Agbayani and cash and got back Burnitz, Lou Collier, Jeff D’Amico, Mark Sweeney, Craig House and five days of Ross Gload.

The Rockies traded five days of Gload, House and former Met Alex Ochoa and got back Zeile, Agbayani and cash.

The Brewers traded Burnitz, Collier, D’Amico and Sweeney and got back Harris, Rusch and Ochoa.

Burnitz was the only player involved who had been better than average in the preceding season and Zeile, Agbayani, Rusch and Ochoa were the only others who had been Major League regulars.

Collier, Sweeney and House were all gone from the Mets by Opening Day of that season. D’Amico did yeoman’s work in the back of the Mets’ rotation in 2002 and was gone before the next season. Burnitz struggled in 2002 then got off to a hot start in 2003 and was dealt for, among others, Victor Diaz.

Agbayani fell apart in his first year with the Rockies and was picked up off waivers by the Red Sox in August. Zeile played one unspectacular year as the Rockies’ third baseman then left to free agency after the season.

Harris did a nice job as the primary pinch-hitter for the 2002 Brewers, enough to earn him a free-agent contract with the Cubs the following season and keep him stumbling around the league for three more years. Ochoa got off to an uninspiring start with the Crew and was traded for Jorge Fabregas at the 2002 trade deadline.

Rusch, one of my favorites from his Mets days, essentially pitched like a much shorter and left-handed version of D’Amico in 2002, then completely tanked in 2003.

Rusch and Burnitz were the only players of the 11 involved in the deal that were still with their new club by the start of the 2003 season, and only Rusch finished out that year with his team. He left for free agency that offseason.

The teams combined to go 204-281 in 2002. Only the Rockies avoided last place in their division, finishing in fourth place with a 73-89 record.

Obviously there were reasons for the deal at the time. The Mets, for example, had just obtained Mo Vaughn and Roger Cedeno, so they didn’t need Zeile or Benny anymore, and Burnitz was another power bat to add to the lineup.

But man, how much time and effort must have gone into a deal that ultimately didn’t help any of the teams involved? Oh, the best-laid plans of Steve Phillips.

For what it’s worth, the Rockies would later obtain Sweeney, Burnitz and Rusch in 2003, 2004 and 2009, respectively. Rusch and Gload were the only players remaining in the Majors last season, and Agbayani retired from playing in Japan a few weeks ago.

Items of note

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My brain says that, as a fan of another Big East basketball team, I should actually be rooting for Syracuse in non-conference matchups with ranked opponents. After all, more respect for the conference should mean more NCAA berths. My heart says screw that, and that Syracuse should burn in hell.

With one Cy Young Award already on his shelf, Tim Lincecum can go about fashioning a bong out of his second.

Chicago’s year-long nightmare is over.

Talk about a sell-Lowe deal! Am I right?

First off, the poll there is hilarious: Would you trade for Derek Lowe? A) Absolutely, B) No way. There is no gray area, and terms of the deal are immaterial. It’s not “Would you trade Milton Bradley for Derek Lowe?” (yes) or “Would you trade a really good sandwich for Derek Lowe” (not unless the Braves ate a huge part of his contract along with my sandwich).

Also, it’s funny how the Derek Lowe vs. Ollie Perez free-agent debate from last season worked out. Lose-lose so far. At the Perpetual Post, Howard Megdal and Chris Pummer discussed which pitcher is a better bet moving forward. Howard won’t give up on Ollie until someone pries his baseball-reference sponsorship from his cold, dead hands.

For no reason at all, here’s some guy’s video for Ween’s The Mollusk:

From the Wikipedia: Old Faithful

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Sometimes you end up so deep into the Wikipedia web that you don’t even remember what started it. That’s what happened today.

From the Wikipedia: Old Faithful

Old Faithful is a geyser in Yellowstone National Park in Wyoming. It was named by explorer Nathan P. Langford because its eruptions happen so regularly, and because, presumably, it is quite old.

In a guide to Yellowstone Park written in 1883, Henry Winser wrote:

Old Faithful is sometimes degraded by being made a laundry. Garments placed in the crater during quiescence are ejected thoroughly washed when the eruption takes place. Gen. Sheridan’s men, in 1882, found that linen and cotton fabrics were uninjured by the action of the water, but woolen clothes were torn to shreds.

I don’t really see how that’s degrading the geyser. The geyser couldn’t care less if you threw some clothes down there. It’s just good use of a natural resource, that’s all.

I’ve been to Old Faithful and I was a bit disappointed. Not by the eruption — that part was cool — but by the geyser’s relative lack of faith.

When you get to Yellowstone, you’re all, oh man, I’ve got to get to Old Faithful in a half hour, she’s about to blow. And then there’s a buffalo on the road in your way, and at first you’re like, “Oh, hey, cool! Buffalo!”

But then in a couple of minutes you’re all, “hey, get out of the road you stupid buffalo, I got places to be.”

Because you think you need to get to Old Faithful right quick.

Not the case. You get to Old Faithful and they tell you the estimated time of eruption, and then say, essentially, “give or take 45 minutes.”

45 minutes! What is this? I came for Old Faithful, not Old Every So Often. I had been led to believe by too many science teachers to count that this thing went off every 90 minutes, like clockwork. But that’s not even close to the case.

Yellowstone Park is really cool, I should add, and there are plenty of sights to see that are way more awesome than Old Faithful. Like the big smoking puddle of yellow stuff, for example, because what is that stuff?

Did you know that Yellowstone Park is really just a giant volcano?

Actually, that understates the case. It’s often considered a supervolcano.

Supervolcanos = Awesome. Less awesome would be said supervolcano exploding. Really not awesome, actually. Like “maybe we all die” not awesome.

And it turns out, the Yellowstone Supervolcano generally erupts about once every 600,000 years, and it hasn’t erupted in about 640,000 years. So that’s a little bit frightening.

But luckily, based on what I know of Yellowstone Park’s sense of timing, it’s probably really 600,000 years plus or minus 300,000 years, so we could have up to 260,000 years left. And unless I somehow unlock the secret of immortality, I probably only need about 80, tops. My kids can deal with the whole thing with the ash blocking out the sun for years.

Some things about Bengie Molina

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You know what two words keep coming up around the Mets this offseason that really scare me?

Bengie Molina.

In his latest epic for MLB.com, Marty Noble, after firing off a few shots at out-of-touch bloggers, writes:

Bengie Molina and Rod Barajas are available and the Mets have their eyes on both. Barajas is younger and has more power. Molina has been a productive hitter with the Giants, but his thick body is 35.

OK, let’s define “productive hitter.”

In his three years with the Giants, Molina produced a 90 OPS+ over 1606 plate appearances. Over those same three years, the average National League catcher produced a 91 OPS+.

Does that make Molina a productive hitter? No. It makes him an average hitter for a catcher, which is kind of like being an average musician for a member of Nickelback.

Molina’s reasonable .742 OPS over that time is mostly fueled by his .440 slugging percentage. On one hand, it’s tempting to say that’s nice for a team that clearly lacked power in 2009. On the other hand, as Sam at Amazin’ Avenue pointed out today, a big part of the reason OPS is not a perfect stat is that it overvalues slugging in regards to on-base percentage.

And Molina’s OBP with the Giants was a miserable .302.

Not productive.

The good thing about how infrequently Molina reaches base, though, is that in the rare event he gets there, he’s an utter embarrassment. To the eye, he’s about the slowest player in the history of Major League Baseball. Statistically, he has regularly cost his team about 20 bases per season, according to BillJamesOnline.net.

Plus he’s 35, like Noble said, so he’s not getting any faster.

Defensively? Well, he moves about as well behind the plate as he does on the basepaths. Catcher defense is a tough thing to gauge statistically, but Driveline Mechanics recently put him right near the bottom of all Major Leaguers.

Here is one interesting tidbit about Bengie Molina: Five of the six players named Molina to ever play Major League Baseball have been catchers, and only three of them — The Cathing Molina Brothers — are related. The only non-catching Major League Molina was Gabe, a pitcher who wasn’t very good.

Joe Posnanski on Jeff Francoeur

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In the middle of a typically awesome blog post about the LVP (Least Valuable Player) award, Joe Posnanski discusses Jeff Francoeur’s candidacy:

I unfairly include him because:

1. He was so legendarily bad with the Atlanta Braves — .250/.282/.352 — that he was well on his way to winning the award before getting traded to the Mets.

2. He was so good with the Mets — .311/.338/.498 — that the Mets undoubtedly believe that he is back to being the guy who was on the cover of Sports Illustrated. They will now be inspired to spend considerable money and effort to keep him in New York. And, hey, they could be right. He could be the player he was in the second half … and from everything I know about Francoeur, I hope that is what happens. He seems to be a great guy.

However, I would be remiss if I did not point out: They also could be wrong — after all, over his last 2,500 at-bats Francoeur has an 89 OPS+ and the defensive numbers seem to indicate that he has regressed into a below average outfielder. Francoeur could be a Riddler-like trap, and the Mets could be just about ready to fall in.

What he said.

Not that they shouldn’t bring him back for next year. They’re going to and it’s fine. It’s the locking him up for the future thing that’s concerning.

Read the post, I think I cited more of it than blogger integrity permits. Actually, subscribe to his RSS and read everything he writes.

Strong men also cry

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Man, could a bigger deal have been made over reports that Rex Ryan cried after Sunday’s loss to the Jaguars?

Look: I’m all in with Tom Hanks and “there’s no crying in baseball.” Baseball is a measured game, and features a 162-game season, so it’s certainly best the players and coaches not get too emotionally caught up in any one event.

Football, though? I don’t know. It’s different.

Maybe it’s something about the adrenaline that comes from the sheer physicality of the sport, the fact that 11 men on the field are, at any given time, trying their best to hurt another 11 men on the field. Or maybe it has something to do with how many fewer games there are, which renders each contest much more important.

Either way, I know this: I’m not a crier, but I’m certain that the hardest I’ve cried in the last 20 years was after my final high-school football game. That was a massively different circumstance than the one that prompted Rex to blubber, but there’s something about the sport, I think, that facilitates tears.

Heck, I even found coaching football — at the JV level, no less — to be a wildly emotional experience. Players used to joke about my sideline behavior when we watched the game films; I often tore down the sideline with on pace with the play if we had a long gain, and even more often blew up in the faces of referees.

And I’m really not a demonstrative guy.

It wasn’t about putting on a show or drawing attention to myself in any way, I was just caught up in the game. The players dug it, I think, because clearly I cared.

Sounds like the Jets felt that way about Ryan’s outburst, at least.

“It’s an emotional game and that just showed his passion,” linebacker Calvin Pace said. “If I was in that situation, I would’ve cried, too, man.”

“You want to win for a coach like that,” [Damien] Woody said. “Whatever the perception is outside is irrelevant. It means nothing. We know how Rex feels about this team and what he was saying.”

Members of the media can call it a sign of weakness or whatever, but, well, whatever. Let a dude show emotion over something he cares about.

Honestly, could this city’s media shoot itself in the collective foot with any more frequency? Does everyone really want to make it so that athletes and coaches never say or do anything interesting, just to avoid the nonsense that inevitably follows?

Items of note

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This is one of the most interesting things I’ve read about baseball this offseason. I have no idea who to believe — smart money says no one here is entirely accurate with his figures — but it’s certainly an important and concerning topic.

Friend of TedQuarters Eric Simon weighs in on inefficiencies in the pitching market, and saves me a lot of legwork the post I was planning on Jon Garland. Garland’s not great, mind you, but he stays healthy enough to pitch 200-some passable innings every year, and that’s a valuable thing.

The debate over whether steroid users belong in the Hall of Fame continues. My stance? Consider their achievements in context of the era’s offensive outburst, but let the deserving guys in. I outlined this here, in a column that got very few eyeballs because it came the morning of the Jeff Francoeur deal:

There’s talk that four of the very best players of this or any era — Manny, Alex Rodriguez, Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds — should be excluded from the Hall of Fame. I like the Hall of Fame, and I fear if those men don’t make it in, the honor will someday seem like the Gold Glove Award or something, like some sort of pageant that bears little correlation to actual accomplishments within the game.

Frank Isola says Donnie Walsh might just be waiting on James Dolan’s go-ahead to sign Allen Iverson. Do it.


Culture Jammin’: The Prisoner

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Did anyone watch The Prisoner miniseries on AMC? It’s a remake of a series from the 1960s, presented in three two-hour installments, or, depending on how you like to divide things, six one-hour installments. It aired Sunday, Monday and Tuesday of this week, but it will be re-aired starting on Sunday.

Anyway, it’s pretty awesome.

It starts with Jim Caviezal waking up amnesiac in a desert to the sounds of gunfire as a militia hunts down an unarmed old man.

He soon learns that he’s been somehow transported to the outskirts of a creepy little town run by Ian McKellen and known as The Village, kind of like in the M. Night Shyamalan movie, only this time I wasn’t able to predict the plot twist from the trailer.

Residents in The Village cannot escape, and many don’t want to, as they are unaware that anyplace besides The Village even exists. But Caviezal — known as 6, since everyone in The Village is numbered — remembers living in New York, and suspects at least a few other villagers have pre-Village memories, too.

I’m not finished watching it yet plus I don’t want to spoil anything, so I won’t recap the plot any further. The narrative itself, though, is disjointed and nebulous, so the viewer — through the first two hours at least — feels a bit like 6 must: confused and without foundation.

The show appears to be thematically and aesthetically similar to Lost, one of my favorite TV shows of all-time. Some of the parallels are so striking that it seems like Lost might be borrowing heavily from the original — which I haven’t seen — or, alternately, that the AMC remake was made with Lost in mind.

One advantage it has over that series is its abbreviated format. Though I’ve invested countless hours watching and rewatching the first five seasons of Lost, I’m still a bit skeptical that it the narrative will conclude in some satisfying way, as — despite claims to the contrary — it’s always unclear whether the writers and producers had an ending in mind at the series’ outset.

With a miniseries there are no such concerns. Clearly everyone responsible for The Prisoner knew exactly when and how the story would wrap from the start of the project, so the plotline should be tighter and more clearly defined.

That’s cool, and with scripted serial sci-fi dramas all the rage these days, I hope that the industry trends toward more programs with planned end-dates, as is more common in Europe.

I recognize that there are some pretty huge differences between the American and British television industries and that ratings have long determined the length of series in the States. But since shows like Lost bank on viewers making long-term investments in solving their mysteries and trusting the writers to end them well — leaps of faith, if you will — it strikes me that, after a few disappointing or dragged-out series finales, it might become a better business strategy to assure audiences that the storyline is fully crafted from before a show’s premiere.

Housekeeping: Sharing is Caring

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Here is a blog post about blog posts:

Thanks to the tireless work of Matt Cerrone, there are now buttons at the bottom of every post to allow you to share said post as you see fit.

And — and I’m completely unbiased here — you should do that all the time. In the words of the great Ron Howard, “Please tell your friends about this [blog].”

Also, I’ve added categories to the far right column. I’m trying to keep them as general as possible to keep the widget from growing unwieldy, but I figure there’s no reason naming series of posts if I’m not going to have someplace to aggregate them.

That meant I had to go through all 160-some posts in the history of the blog and add categories, which was tiresome. But it’s done now, so please feel free to use them and justify my last several hours.

Reese’s piece

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Toby Hyde, just returned from a trip to the Arizona Fall League, provides a great scouting report with video on Mets’ prospect Reese Havens. He writes:

The game film validates, to some degree, the power he showed in St. Lucie, and his approach was plenty patient.   Add a few more singles to his batting average in the FSL (where he struck out just 73 times in 97 games) and his .247/.361/.422 line would look a lot better.   I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see Havens hittin .280/.380/.450 by July of next year for AA Binghamton.

Havens will likely continue his transition from shortstop to second base with the B-Mets this year, under the watchful eye (or maybe the watchful shimmying hips) of Timmy Teufel.

If you recall, Havens was a guy expected to move quickly through the Mets’ system when they drafted him in 2008. On paper, his stats with Port St. Lucie in 2009 weren’t overwhelming, but it’s important to keep in mind that the Florida State League is generally considered a pitcher-friendly one.

According to MinorLeagueSplits.com, Havens’ line, when neutralized for park and luck, becomes a much more impressive .280/.387/.465, far more in keeping with the one Toby predicts for him at Double-A.

I’m far from sold on Havens, but his plate discipline and power — even at a low level — are promising signs. If he can continue progressing and successfully make the positional switch, he could be ready for regular play at Citi at some point in the 2011 season.

That’s a long way off, but it’s an important factor to consider while rumors abound about the Mets dealing Luis Castillo and signing Orlando Hudson to a multi-year deal.

Havens almost certainly won’t help the Mets in 2010 and it’s  silly to plan the team around a guy who’s still a couple of years away. The Mets will have a much more accurate sense of Havens’ longterm value to the team after he faces higher-level competition this season, though, so it might be imprudent to sign any second baseman on the backside of his prime for multiple years when they could have — in either Havens or Ruben Tejada — a good, inexpensive, young, homegrown solution ready midway through that player’s contract.

Again, if I was certain the Mets could compete in 2010, I’d be all about finding an upgrade over Castillo. But that’s not really the ticket to building a sustainable winner, and since the Mets frequently demonstrate no willingness to move on from sunk costs, it’d be a shame to see a guy occupy precious payroll and a starting spot just because the team made a misguided attempt to win immediately.

One quick note on Toby, for what it’s worth: He’s an excellent guy and does a tremendous job, plus he recognizes how I’m killing it, but he might be a vampire. We e-mail with some frequency, and I’m not certain I’ve ever received a message from him that didn’t arrive between 2 a.m. and 5 a.m.