No country for old men

According to David Lennon at Newsday, the inevitable has come to pass: The Mets have offered Bengie Molina a two-year, $12 million contract.

If Molina signs, the Opening Day age of the average Mets’ offseason acquisition so far will hold steady at about 35 years old. That figure includes Alex Cora, Chris Coste, Henry Blanco and Mike Hessman, but not Elmer Dessens, whose deal isn’t official yet.

Look: I realize that doesn’t mean much. It’s still very early in the offseason, and the Mets will almost certainly bring in a couple of guys to drag that average down.

What’s troublesome about it, though, is that all those guys were offered deals before the Dec. 12 deadline for teams to non-tender arbitration-eligible players in this, a year in which the economy is expected to make more young, role-playing free agents available than ever before.

So while I recognize that the players the Mets have signed and pursued so far are mostly role players, I wonder why they were so eager to lock down so many old role players. Do they really value experience so highly that it’s worth the greater injury risk, greater chance of an erosion of skills, and the much, much smaller chance of a breakout performance?

Maybe. Who am I to say how the Mets should value experience? Clearly there’s some reason they felt Cora was worth $2 million and a vesting option, and it’s not something I can identify on any of these spreadsheets.

Early in my tenure writing for SNY.tv, I was accused by several posters on that site’s message boards of ageism. I complained so much about Omar Minaya’s apparent campaign to reunite the 1991 AL All-Star Team in Port St. Lucie in 2007 that people became certain I had some sort of agenda against older players.

I really don’t, though. I recognize that older players can offer value to a team, beyond just their experience. Players who were good in their mid-30s are likely to remain at least useful in their late 30s, and so, if the price is right, teams that appear on the verge of contention can and should turn to veterans for help.

For a team in the Mets’ current situation, though, I’m less certain it’s a good idea.

It can reasonably be argued that these Mets have uncertainty — due either to injury or recent performance — at every single position. Even David Wright showed chinks in his armor for the first time in his career in 2009.

That’s not to say the Mets should scrap everything and rebuild in 2010. They’ve still got a slew of great players, and so, with decent team health and a few key acquisitions, they should be competitive.

But with so many question marks, the Mets would be foolish to go all-in on 2010. They must reinforce their current crop of players with guys who might actually help the team beyond the upcoming season.

Bengie Molina is not one of those guys. Not many 35-year-old catchers are. And with the Rays appearing primed to part with Kelly Shoppach (whom they just acquired for a player to be named later) or non-tender Dioner Navarro, it’s easy to wonder why the Mets are instead ready to commit two years to someone with so many more behind him.

Items of note

Greg Monroe had an awesome game last night for my Hoyas, but not nearly enough credit has been given to sophomore guard Jason Clark, who probably hasn’t even grown into his frame yet. “Big paws on a puppy,” as Chris Partlow might say.

Something actually happened at the Winter Meetings, and it’s been branded a “megadeal.” I guess you don’t see young All-Stars like Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson dealt every day.

Rich Cimini says the Jets need to let Mark Sanchez rest. If that’s the case, they need to also find someone who’s not Kellen Clemens to learn their offense in four days.

Courtesy of a real-life Taco Bell manager, some common-sense tips on proper drive-thru etiquette.

Gone to Sheets

According to Joel Sherman’s Twitter, the Mets will meet with Ben Sheets’ agent at some point during the Winter Meetings.

Good.

Sheets could be a great pickup for the Mets. He’s always a huge injury risk — he’s coming off flexor tendon surgery and hasn’t pitched since 2008, plus was injury prone before that — but he’s also always good.

I have no idea what Sheets is looking for in a contract, and it sounds like no one does. He’s certain to have a ton of suitors, but likely the team that lands him will be one that offers him some intriguing combination of guaranteed cash and performance incentives.

The Mets probably should be that team. If he’s healthy, Sheets will better than everyone in the Mets’ rotation besides Johan Santana.

For what it’s worth, in 2004, Andy Pettitte endured the same surgery that made Sheets miss all of last year. Since 2005, Pettitte has average 210 innings a season.

Of course, Pettitte was a lot healthier than Sheets before he had the surgery, so it’s not a fair comparison. I only mean to say that it’s reasonable to expect Sheets to return to full health, or at least as close to full health as he can ever be.

Plus, Sheets represents a reasonable opportunity for the Mets to leverage the perception of their home park to their advantage. If, as has been reported, sluggers are shying away from Citi Field because of its dimensions, shouldn’t pitchers be more eager to sign on with the Mets?

And then wouldn’t it make sense for Sheets, who will likely be pitching for his next contract in 2010, to throw half of his games in Queens?

Again, it’s all about the cost. If some team is willing to give him two guaranteed years and $20 million, the Mets should bow out gracefully. If Sheets is presented with a slew of similar, incentive-laden one-year contracts, though, the Mets should do their best to make sure theirs is the most favorable.

Reasons to like John Maine

John Maine’s name has come up in trade rumors today. Chris M made a good point in the comments section earlier on how Maine appears to be regressing since 2007, and it’s true: Maine has posted higher ERAs and lower strikeout rates in each season since his best one.

But, as a Mets fan, I’m prone to hoping Maine can bounce back and finding reasons for optimism: He did, after all, pitch well in a very small sample after returning from injury in 2009.

Moreover, I root for Maine because, from everything I read about him and the few times I’ve spoken to him, he seems like a pretty funny guy, or at the very least an interesting one. Two examples:

1) In February, 2008, John Maine told Marty Noble he had never visited the Internet.

I can’t imagine how this could possibly be true. Maine was born in 1981, like me, and would have been in my class in school. That means he went to college — UNC-Charlotte, specifically — from 1999 until he left for the Orioles farm system in 2002. That was the peak of the supposed dot-com boom, not to mention the peak of the Napster era.

Maybe Maine somehow missed all of that, in which case, he’s certainly fascinating. More likely, Maine made some sort of sarcastic comment in the clubhouse that was taken seriously, then decided to run with it to mess with a reporter.

And that’s awesome. I probably shouldn’t say this, but if I were a professional athlete I would make stuff up to mess with reporters all the time.

2) In September 2008, when the Mets were toying with the idea of bringing Maine back from injury and into a bullpen role, he told reporters he had already selected his closer music: Sir Mix-A-Lot’s “Posse on Broadway.”

That’s cool for a variety of reasons. For one, players rarely go on record discussing their choice of intro music, and when they do, it’s usually something like, “Aw, shucks, that’s just what my teammates thought would be fun” or something lame.

Maine thought about it enough to confidently select his own, meaning he’s clearly aware enough to recognize how awesome closer music can be. As someone with a whole lot to say on the subject, I hugely appreciate that Maine cared enough to consider his song, even if it was just in passing, and even if he’ll never really be a closer.

In both parts of my aforelinked closer-music epic, I wrote, “hip-hop is woefully underrepresented in closer music.” Apparently John Maine recognizes this too, and so picked Sir Mix-A-Lot (you know, the “I like big butts” guy).

It’s not a bad choice, either. It’s funny because, though Mix-A-Lot is referring to the Broadway in his native seattle, it conjures images of John Maine and an entourage rolling down Broadway in Manhattan. And Maine’s posse almost certainly includes Mike Pelfrey, and Pelfrey just seems like a hilarious person to be part of a posse.

Here’s the song:

A clue on No. 2

The back page of today’s Daily News features the headline, “GET A CLUE ON NO. 2” with a big picture of John Lackey and a small picture of Omar Minaya. In smaller font, it reads, “Harper: Mets need to realize they need big name like Lackey.”

Let’s go to the article!

Who exactly is the Mets’ No.2 starter?

The question is especially troubling because Mike Pelfrey took a major step backward last season, to the point where baseball people are whispering about him as a head case.

OK, first of all, about the whole “No. 2 starter” thing: That’s meaningless, you know. The only time the presence of a “true No. 2 starter” matters even a little bit is in the playoffs. The order of a team’s starting rotation does not matter.

It doesn’t. Think about it: Would you rather have a team with a “true No.1” and a “true No. 2” and three replacement-level starters, or a team with five pretty decent starters? I’ll take depth. I understand that labeling guys by their theoretical place in some non-existent rotation is convenient, but it’s pointless. Find me a team that has one “No. 1,” one “No. 2,” one “No. 3” one “No. 4” and one “No. 5.”

Harper continues on a long tangent about Mike Pelfrey and how he’s obviously crazy and terrible, but fails to mention — unsurprisingly — that there’s a good deal of evidence to suggest Pelfrey, a pitcher who relies on the players behind him, got a little bit lucky in 2008 and a lot bit unlucky in 2009. Sure, Pelfrey had his yips and balks and everything else, but who wouldn’t get anxious pitching in front of that defense?

Anyway, Harper knows “the Mets don’t seem willing to spend [the] kind of money” required to net Lackey even though “a tough-minded pitcher like Lackey almost cetainly would have a comforting effect on Peflrey, Maine and Perez” (obviously Johan Santana is not tough-minded enough), and despite the fact that “they were expected to meet with Lackey’s agent [at the Winter Meetings] last night.”

There’s plenty in the article I could pick apart, but it mostly boils down to Harper’s opinion that the Mets need a starting pitcher and so should sign Lackey. It’s hard to argue that, because the Mets do need a starting pitcher.

But it seems like a whole lot of people are hell-bent on this logic:

The Mets need a starting pitcher, and John Lackey is the best available starting pitcher, so the Mets need John Lackey.

And that’s just not how it works.

The object of baseball is to score more runs than the other team. You can attempt to do so by stockpiling the best pitchers, or the best hitters, or the best defenders, or, most likely, some combination thereof.

The Mets, dealing with finite resources, need to find the most efficient way to spend their offseason capital. John Lackey is a good pitcher, but at 31 and with some history of minor arm trouble, he’s probably not the best longterm investment.

And the Mets absolutely must consider the years beyond this one. Harper learned this less than two months ago.

Of course, a potential Lackey acquisition should depend, like everything else, on the cost. Maybe Lackey’s demands in dollars and years will drop and the Mets can scoop him up at a reasonable rate.

But rewarding Lackey simply for being the best pitcher in a weak class of free-agent pitchers is foolish, especially when there’s a chance several better pitchers — Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Brandon Webb, to name a few — could be available next offseason.

It’s a shame about Roy

Update, Dec. 8:

You want lazy? This is lazy. I’m bumping this post, originally published on Nov. 11, because I feel the same way today and Mets fans keep going on about getting Roy Halladay:

Original post, Nov. 11, 2:04 p.m.:

In a subscriber-only post to Newsday that I am not able to read, Ken Davidoff compares the trade market for Roy Halladay with the one for Johan Santana before the 2008 season and explains that “the Mets believe they have at least a chance” to land the Blue Jays’ ace.

OK, here’s the thing: Roy Halladay is a stud. He’s thrown over 220 innings in each of the last four seasons, he strikes out a decent number of guys and he rarely walks anyone. Plus, he pitches in the uber-tough AL East, meaning he’s certainly been one of the three or four best pitchers in baseball over that time.

But Halladay’s situation is not exactly like Santana’s situation for a number of reasons.

For one, it’s important to remember that the Mets didn’t exactly trade four prospects for six seasons of Santana. They traded four prospects for the right to sign Santana to a six-year deal at market rate.

Given Santana’s excellence, it’s difficult to put a price tag on the exclusive negotiating rights the Mets acquired when they traded for him, but it’s reasonable to say the deal was a good one.

Still, as great as Santana is, he has already missed part of a season with an arm injury. And though all reports say Santana will return to full health, it’s not a safe bet he’ll stay that way through 2012 and 2013, when he’ll make a total of $49.5 million.

Theoretically, a deal for Halladay would either be a trade for one year of Halladay — he’s due to be a free agent after this season — or an arrangement like Santana’s, wherein the Mets would gain a negotiating window in which to sign Halladay.

And that’s where the situation differs massively from Santana’s. Halladay would certainly require a long-term deal, probably similar to the one Santana signed. But Halladay will be 33 in May, and Santana was about to turn 29 when the Mets locked him up.

Santana won’t be as old as Halladay until before the 2012 season, when he’s entering the final years of his contract with the Mets. Locking up Halladay for that long would mean committing big money to a pitcher while he’s in the back half of his 30s, and that’s a way, way riskier proposition.

Of course, Halladay hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down in the past couple of years. His average fastball velocity, according to Fangraphs, was actually higher than his career mark in 2009.

So maybe Halladay is the rare breed of dude who can remain effective deep into his 30s, and the Mets would be well-suited to lock him up for the long-term, even if it meant committing around $50 million a year to two starting pitchers.

Still, Halladay did miss nearly half the 2004 season with a shoulder injury, so it’s not like he’s impervious to pain.

Of course, analysis of any potential deal cannot be separated from the cost, and since we have no idea what it will take to land Halladay, it’s difficult to say for sure whether the Mets should or shouldn’t pursue him.

If the Blue Jays are randomly smitten with Anderson Hernandez and want to do a straight swap, well then, you know, yeah. But way more likely, any package strong enough to net Halladay would start with several of the Mets’ best remaining young players or prospects, further depleting an already shallow system.

And moreover, when the Mets dealt for Santana, they were coming off a season in which they missed the playoffs by a single game, so it was reasonable to assume Santana alone might push them over the edge.

This year, obviously, that is not the case. And though having Halladay would probably mean about eight more wins for the Mets than trotting Tim Redding out every fifth day, it’s unclear if he alone could make the difference between the 2009 Mets — even assuming full health — and a playoff team.

And that’s an important distinction, because by trading prospects for Halladay then signing him to a big contract, the Mets would likely be committing nearly all of their available offseason resources to a single 33-year-old pitcher.

That just doesn’t strike me as a good idea.

Items of note

In the time since my last post, a Corey Hart for John Maine rumor has been developed and debunked. Good. I recognize that Maine gets hurt all the time, but I’d take my chances with him over a guy who a) is basically redundant with Jeff Francoeur on the team and b) appears to be getting worse.

Scientists have deciphered monkey language, and just in time to help us follow the Winter Meetings on Twitter.

Here’s what Whitey Herzog looks like now.

I have it on a solid source that at the GM meetings, the NL East clubs decided that this year’s division champion will be determined not by the standings, but by which team hands out the worst multi-year deal to an old catcher. The Nationals’ outlook got a whole lot brighter yesterday.

For no reason at all, here’s Funkadelic:

Winter Meetings officially jump the shark

Many would have argued that the Winter Meetings jumped the shark a couple of years ago, specifically whenever MLB.com first came up with a special logo to brand their Winter Meetings coverage.

But I’m pretty certain the shark was actually jumped about a half hour ago, when AOL Fanhouse writer Ed Price tweeted that he heard a rumor the Mets had acquired Edwin Jackson.

Twitter nearly imploded. Every Mets fan and blogger weighed in, and numerous perplexed members of the New York media scrambled to find out if it was true.

I know this, of course, because they were all Twittering about it, too.

Then Price himself, only a few minutes later, clarified his Tweet, writing:

To be clear: #Mets and Edwin Jackson not confirmed. Heard in the lobby

Ah yes. It was Ed Price in the lobby with the cell phone.

But you can’t really blame the guy, I mean, after all, he had a reliable source: He heard it in the lobby.

Now, I have no idea who broke the news to Price, but I’m enjoying imagining that it was some guy who recognized how funny it would be to loudly spread false gossip.

My friends and I used to do this all the time: One time we had a loud discussion at a basketball game about Clyde Drexler’s mysterious death (note: No disrespect to Clyde the Glide, it was completely made up), and by the time we exited the arena, we overheard other people discussing it.

So if you’re in Indianapolis this week, I strongly urge you to consider standing in the lobby of the convention center, loudly forwarding nonsense. If anyone calls you on it, say it’s performance art. Trust me; that excuse always works.

To be fair to Price, it’s not really his fault that he desperately Tweeted the rumor from the lobby without investigating further. That, much like Tiger Woods’ extramarital affairs, should be blamed on the relentless news-media environment.

Shinjo succeeds where Norm MacDonald couldn’t

Reader Takashi sent in a couple more links to video of Tsuyoshi Shinjo doing stuff, and since my post containing Shinjo video from early November remains one of this site’s most popular, I figured I’d give the people what they want.

Here’s what it looks like when Tsuyoshi Shinjo wins the Japanese version of Who Wants to Be a Millionaire?:

And here’s… I don’t know what this is. It appears to be some sort of game show focusing on batting cages. The Shinjo reveal at about 3:00 in is pretty magical. If someone speaks Japanese and can explain to me why he’s wearing a surgical mask on his chin, I’d be hugely appreciative.