If you’re familiar with my work at SNY.tv, you know that I don’t believe anything I read in the offseason with regards to player movement.

But I do like weighing in on potential moves, which launched the Wireless Calling series last offseason. So this is that, I suppose, updated for the blog format.

Wireless Calling: Randy Wolf

Tim Dierkes at MLBTradeRumors.com sees the Mets signing Wolf to a three-year deal in excess of $30 million dollars. Tim admits he’s guessing, of course, but there have been reports linking the Mets to Wolf.

Most of those reports focus on the fact that the Mets feel they “missed out” on Wolf last offseason.

That, my friends, is a terrible reason to sign Randy Wolf.

Wolf had a great year for the Dodgers. He threw over 200 innings for the first time since 2003 and posted a career-best 129 ERA+ and 1.101 WHIP.

He turned out to a terrific signing for Los Angeles, who took advantage of the market and inked him to a one-year, incentive-laden deal that ended up costing them around $8 million.

That’s not the situation now. Now, Randy Wolf is as valuable a commodity as he has been in a long, long time, and Dierkes is right to expect him to land a deal similar to the one Oliver Perez got last year.

But before 2008, Wolf hadn’t stayed healthy for a full season since 2003 and before 2009, he hadn’t been appreciably better than average since 2002.

So to sign him, at age 33, to a three-year deal befitting the second-best free agent pitcher would be foolishness of the highest order.

The chances of Wolf repeating his 2009 success are slim. This season, he yielded a .254 BABIP (batting average on balls in play), well below his career .294 mark. That means he probably got a bit lucky and benefited from good defense behind him, neither of which is likely to repeat itself with the Mets in 2010.

If Wolf’s stock drops and it appears likely he’ll sign for far less than the deal Tim suggested, then sure, the Mets should be a player. He’s not a bad pitcher, and he’s coming off two straight healthy years.

But signing him to a longterm deal coming off a career year could be an epic buy-high mistake. And if the Mets did that just because they felt they missed out on him last year, it’s an inexcusable example of operating in hindsight rather than foresight.

This year is not last year. Randy Wolf is no longer a good bargain-bin pickup. Signing Wolf to a three-year deal because he’s coming off a couple of good seasons would not undo their mistake. More likely, they’d be signing him instead of someone better and less expensive, and so they’d just be making the same mistake again.