The John Harper column I weighed in on yesterday is making its way around the Internet, and now everyone’s getting on board the Mike Pelfrey-is-a-headcase train.
Good lord.
OK, Mike Pelfrey does some weird things. He got the yips one night, he fell down while pitching on another, and one time, after a rough start, he blew off some steam by running laps of Coors Field.
Whatever.
The issue of whether Mike Pelfrey actually regressed in any significant way was addressed during the season by both Howard Megdal and Sam Page. I won’t go into any great detail, but read those pieces.
Basically, as a ground-ball pitcher Pelfrey relies on his defense. In 2008, he pitched in front of a decent defense. In 2009, he pitched in front of a terrible one.
Or, he succumbed to his obvious mental weakness.
Truth is, something did appear to go wrong for Pelfrey in the last month of the 2009 season. In his first 24 starts of the year, he allowed nine home runs in 140 2/3 innings. In his last seven, he allowed nine home runs in 43 2/3 innings.
Maybe his arm was tired, or maybe he made some sort of adjustment that didn’t work out so well, or maybe he really did get a touch anxious.
In any case, if the Mets can improve the defense behind Pelfrey, I wouldn’t bet on it continuing. Again, and for like the millionth time, professional athletes are professional athletes because they can triumph over mental hiccups.
Repeat after me: You do not make the Major Leagues if you are mentally weak.
You don’t.
Certainly, there are guys who’ve gone crazy, guys who’ve needed help, and guys who couldn’t be helped. There’s a mental aspect of the game, for sure.
But let’s not all pile on Pelfrey for a few on-field idiosyncrasies and an unlucky season. Remember that his weird mouth/tongue thing was just a lovable little quirk after 2008. Even up until midway through this season, everyone was certain John Maine was the second biggest headcase in the Mets’ rotation, not Pelfrey.
Check it out — I even joked about it in this column, which touched on a lot of the same topics as the blog post you’re reading now:
I’m confident that I know enough about baseball to analyze most of what the players do on the field. I’m not confident that I know enough about people to analyze what happens in their heads. Who am I to say that John Maine is a head case and Mike Pelfrey is not? Who is anybody? For all I know, Maine is just a guy who beats himself up after a bad day and Pelfrey is quietly a madman.
Look: Mike Pelfrey is the least of the Mets’ problems. He’s a 26-year-old pitcher who has managed to stay mostly healthy for two full Major League seasons. That alone is a valuable commodity, and combined with his 50 percent career groundball rate, makes Pelfrey a good bet to remain a solid part of a big-league rotation for the next several years.
Let’s not run him out of town for perceived mental weakness.
Tedquarters 
good piece. im hoping for big things from him this season.
I don’t think Pelfrey will be starting for the Mets in 2 years. He’ll either be a setup man or included in a deal for a better starter. His low K rate, his trouble with lefties, and most of all his inability to deep into games lead me to these conclusions.
Pelfrey is a great prospect. He is developing very well in his first two years and as the blog states, staying healthy for two years is a nice accomplishment in itself. If he is not the Blue Jays choice of top young pitcher available to them, I would be shocked. There are some guys with good stuff in the minors but this guy has hung in there at the major league level. The Mets for once, have some young (read affordable) guys that have proven something at the highest level. Pelfrey, Maine, Murphy and Pagan are a nice group of young baseball players.
Awesome entry. I agree completely.
I don’t get this whole incredible desire to increase Pelfrey’s K rate. He is a sinkerballer… he doesn’t need an incredible pitch that will blow hitters away. He needs to pitch to contact and have a strong infield defense behind him.
Random stat:
Derek Lowe, during his 21 win season in 2002 had a K/9 of 5.20.
Mike Pelfrey, during his 2009 “regression” season had a K/9 of 5.22.
If anything, he’s doing worse trying to blow hitters away. His 2008 breakout season K/9 was 4.93.
Pelf will be fine with a strong defense. Don’t even consider trading the only starting pitcher to stay off the DL (maybe I’m making that up?!)
Keep the kid. He’s got some good stuff, and I think with a decent defense around him, he’ll be doing just fine. He needs to forget about strikes-outs and just worry about getting people out.
I heard Omir Santos talking about the hand-licking this morning on WFAN on my way to work. Hilarious . . .
Ted, Well put article, however doesn’t any one remember mr. Turk Wendall, you talk about a head case. I enjoyed the beating a rosin bag took every night, but isn’t baseball suppose to be entertaining also? I’m not giving up on big Pelf or Maine, because they are still young and the mechanics are there, they just over analyze to much. I feel a viewing or two of Bull Durham, or For the love of the game and they will be on there way. Perez, he’s a head case, he’s the worst of the three and unless some one teaches him how to pitch properly he will never live up to his potential. Just go with a regular wind up. I hoped and still do the Mets trade that guy for a rosin bag or a water cooler.
I love big Pelf.
I am not sure why any Met fan would read John Harper’s columns and that them as a solid critique of their favorite team. The man has an inability to shoot straight. I always get the feeling when reading his articles that he is basing much of what he is saying on footnotes from games. Almost like he watched these games on fast forward after being Tivo’d. Maybe an intern is passing him notes and he is writing articles that potentially a million people can read? that would make the most sense.
I guess what I am saying is that I hope Mets fans recognize the places they can get fair opinions on their favorite team. It is certainly not from hired gun writers like Harper, Sherman, Madden or Hubbuch who make it their mission to cut down the Mets organization at every level.
If you like bashing John Harper, you’ll love Tedquarters.net.
I don’t mean to blast post here but a perfect example of what i just stated above is clear in Mark Hales article in the NY Post this morning. The headline? “Mets Lose Out to Brewers in Pursuit of Wolf.” Really now? The Mets lost out on overpaying for a number 3 starter? Oh, the horror.
You are damned if you do and you are damned if you…do! “Don’t is not an option.
For all of the talk of Pelfrey being a groundball and sinker pitcher he has never actually generated ground balls in his career. For his career his ground ball to fly ball ratio is 1.05 and his best single season ratio is 1.10.
This is interesting and comes up with some frequency. That stat actually varies pretty widely depending on where you get it, and depending on how it’s compiled. ESPN.com’s GB/FB ratio includes line drives as fly balls and generally has Pelfrey around 1:1. Fangraphs.com, which uses a more accurate system to show percentages of groundballs, flyballs, and line-drives, showed Pelfrey with a 51.3% groundball rate, 11th highest in the bigs. Fangraphs also doesn’t include line drives in it’s GB/FB ratio, and so has Pelf at 12th in the Majors:
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=y&type=2&season=2009&month=0