The Mets picked up Jose Reyes’ $11 million option yesterday, a no-brainer. Mike Lupica seems to think otherwise, as does at least one reader of this site. But Fangraphs valued Reyes at slightly over $11 million even last year, when he straight-up sucked for the better part of two months after returning from his thyroid issue.
People seem to think shortstops who can adequately field the position and hit a little bit grow on trees. They don’t. Even in 2010 — undoubtedly a down year statistically — Reyes ranked fifth among Major League shortstops in OPS and fourth in wOBA.
Reyes is worth $11 million even if he performs only as well as he did last season, and way, way more if he produces like he did from 2006 to 2008. Certainly there exists the risk of injury, and if Reyes is going to post a .322 on-base percentage he shouldn’t be hitting leadoff.
But the investment now buys the Mets time to determine how much they’re willing to offer on a long-term extension, plus it’s not like there are any better in-house options laying in wait.
The more interesting roster move, I think, is a minor one: The Mets added Minor League reliever Manuel Alvarez to the 40-man roster, presumably to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft.
That’s good. I mentioned Alvarez a couple times here while wading through the Mets’ bullpen issues. I can’t say I know a damn thing about the guy except that he absolutely dominated High-A and Double-A hitters in 2010.
For the season — including a six-inning stint at Triple-A — the 24-year-old Venezuelan posted a 2.17 ERA and struck out 84 batters in 78 2/3 innings while walking only 12. That’s a near Cliff-Leeian 7:1 K:BB ratio, the type of performance that suggests he could probably contribute to a Major League bullpen soon.
Alvarez did not pitch well at all in his first four Minor League seasons, but the stats suggest he made some sort of adjustment before his 2010 campaign. Toby Hyde described him as a four-pitch pitcher in a post in July, so I wonder if Alvarez added or improved one of those offerings in the offseason. Whatever it was, it worked.
Perhaps Alvarez succumbs to the same fate as Carlos Muniz, drifting between Triple-A and the Majors for a little bit before suffering the inevitable injury setbacks, but if the Mets are hoping to be more careful about letting valuable arms like Heath Bell slip away, protecting Alvarez is a nice first step. Bell’s Minor League peripherals — especially once he hit age 24 — were about as impressive as Alvarez’s, but, of course, he lacked Jon Adkins’ Major League pedigree.
Tedquarters 
Lupica is so insufferable. Not only is he a moron, but he peppers his articles with faux-tough-guy talk like “show some stick,” which annoys me to no end.
He writes this in the 1st paragraph:
There was a time when you thought he would be making a lot more than that by now, thought he might be a $20 million shortstop the way Capt. Jeter of the Yankees is… you look at what Reyes has given the Mets lately and think he is overpaid at a whole lot less.
Then this in the 8th paragraph:
There was a time when we thought Reyes would be a $20 million shortstop by now. He isn’t close. He will be overpaid at $11 million.
I posted my thoughts on Reyes in the Metsblog comment section too so I’ll just cut and paste it here as well. It goes right along the lines of what you are saying Ted, in that I think Mets fans tend to undervalue this guy, and not realize how good he really is:
The thing I dont get is, why do Mets fans have this idea that something like $11M is to mcuh to pay Reyes? Do Mets fans realize what Reyes value would be on the open market?
Go to baseball-reference and compare the 162 game averages for Carl Crawford and Jose Reyes for thier careers, its staggering how nearly identical thier stats are, with Reyes even having a very slight edge in many categories. Bottom line, these guys are almost mirror images offensively.
And I understand Crawford is comming off a career year, and Reyes isnt right now, but that Career year by Crawford is nearly identical and no better than the best years Reyes has put up, coming in 2006 and 2008. Plus Reyes plays a premium position (SS) at a very high level, while Crawford plays left field. While he plays it very well, LF is one of the least valuable positions on the field.
So basically if Reyes gets healthy and returns to being the Jose Reyes we all know, he should be looking at Carl Crawford type money, up in the $100M contract range, there’s no reason he shouldnt be.
I think it would be highly in the Mets best interest to try and lock him up in the 5 years/65M range if they belive he is going to be healthy. If they play the waiting game and Jose gets it together like I expoect him too, its could cost the Mets alot of $$$$.
I’m convinced Jose Reyes already peaked. He’s not getting any younger, his speed is his most valuable asset, and he’s already slowing down.
His 2011 season will be his opportunity to show otherwise.
No problem with his option being picked up for one more season, though I don’t believe a new long-term deal is warranted barring a miraculous comeback and no more injuries.
I have to disagree here about the speed. You make a point here that alot of Met fans try to make and imply that Reyes whole game is based on speed.
As if hes some guy that just bunts and slaps the ball and beats out infield hits. If you watch Reyes play you’d know that just not that case. The guy hits the ball with a good amount of power.
You arguement works for a player like Luis Castillo who has nothing if he cant leg out slap hits and steal bases, but not a player like Reyes who can drive the ball all over the ballpark and even give you 15-20 HRs.
1. I didn’t say his whole game was based on speed, merely that it is his most valuable asset, which if you watch him play, you would know as fact.
2. While he can drive the ball far, he is not a power hitter. He will never break .500 SLG, not that anyone expects him to.
3. 15-20 HRs? 19 was the peak in ’06. 10-15 is more his typical range, which will probably continue.
My point is that he’s peaked. His best years (2006-2008) are behind him. He’s still a very good shortstop, though not an elite one.
I’m not convinced that the Mets should be backing up the Brinks truck to keep him well into his 30’s, which is still 3 years away.