But to me, the biggest contingency plan for the 2010 Mets is the 2011 Mets. Because if things go horribly awry this season — and after 2009, we’d be foolish to dismiss that possibility — the team at least won’t have to look far to see the future. Top prospects Ike Davis, Fernando Martinez, Josh Thole and Jon Niese — should he not earn the fifth starter’s role in Spring Training — should all start the year in Triple-A….

And so I’m hoping that the Mets’ biggest failure this offseason was not in roster construction, but merely in communication when they threw around terms like “unacceptable” and “change” and “spend” and “trade.” Maybe they would’ve been better off starting with the slogan I suggested back in September:

“The 2010 Mets: Please Be Patient While We Get Our S@#$ Together”

– Me, here, Feb. 10, 2010.

I’m wrong about enough stuff that it doesn’t really pay to start going back and quoting myself. Heck, I was hardly right about everything in that post — little did I realize the Mets were about to turn their top starting-pitching prospect into a middle reliever.

I just stumbled onto it today and thought it was funny how my proposed slogan for last offseason seems to be pretty close to the actual slogan for this offseason. So that part of the post, at least, appears prescient.

I was probably wrong, though, in assuming that one year of development time for the Mets’ crop of upper-level prospects would be enough to return the Mets to contention in 2011. Yes, Ike Davis, Jon Niese and to a lesser extent Josh Thole seem primed to be (and continue being) valuable and cost-effective Major League contributors. But I was probably at least a bit guilty of the standard fan practice of overrating prospects. Clearly 2010 did not go as we would have hoped for Martinez, Reese Havens, Brad Holt or Jenrry Mejia.

James Kannengieser at Amazin’ Avenue recently took a stab at projecting the 2011 Mets’ win totals based on the current roster. He based the post on WAR and took an admittedly conservative approach, assuming that none of Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran and David Wright return to the forms they showed from 2006-2008 and that neither Davis nor Thole provides more to the club in 2011 than he did in 2010.

Still, despite all that, Kannengieser puts the Mets — these Mets, without any offseason additions — at 79 wins. With some reasonable, inexpensive roster tweaking, a couple of high-upside plays that pay off, a return to peak form from at least one of the stars, and some improvement from Davis, Thole and Niese, it’s not too hard to imagine an 87-89 win team.

Maybe that’s hoping for a lot of things to go right. The new front office would have to make the right upside plays, for one thing, or at least enough of them to have some of them work out. For another, we’d have to hope the young players improve instead of suffering regression in their sophomore seasons.

But a well-managed team with a solid crop of young contributors can turn things around mighty quickly. And a win total in the high 80s should put the Mets at least on the fringes of contention.

So while yes, this offseason is a winter for the Mets’ getting their proverbial s#@$ together, it could also feasibly be one in which they scrap together enough small moves to field a competitive team in 2011. We shall see, I suppose. At the very least an Opening Day lineup with some promising young homegrown players should be more palatable than one with Gary Matthews Jr., Alex Cora and Mike Jacobs in it.

Also, for what it’s worth: That headline is a Rhymefest reference. I’m not actually ahead of my time or behind in my rent, though the latter is mostly because my wife is a vigilant bill-payer, for which I am thankful.