Mets pursuing Dave Bush?

Rumor has it the Mets are pursuing Dave Bush.

Meh.

The upside to Bush is that he’s durable. I’ve long held that the ability to stay healthy and accrue innings is an underrated talent in pitchers, and it’s one Bush can boast. He has averaged 174 innings a season since 2006.

Problem is, none of them have been all that exceptional. In that same time, Bush has posted an 89 ERA+ and the velocity on his fastball has been steadily declining.

If signed, Bush will likely give the Mets around 174 innings, taking some heat off the bullpen and preventing the team from having to find someone willing to pitch those 174 innings. But Dillon Gee and Pat Misch are probably willing to pitch 174 innings, and they can probably combine for 174 innings just as effective as the ones Bush would provide.

Of course, it doesn’t entirely work like that. The Mets lack starting pitching depth in the high Minors, and bringing in a durable starter practically guarantees depth. Bush is a known quantity that offers a lower ceiling but a higher floor than reclamation projects like Chris Young and Jeff Francis, and for that matter Chris Capuano.

At Metsblog, Michael Baron suggests that pitchers like Bush that yield a lot of contact could benefit from pitching in Citi Field. It is frequently said (perhaps even here) that flyball-heavy pitchers (again, like Bush) could enjoy more success in Citi FIeld than they do elsewhere, and I wonder about this.

There’s still not a ton of evidence that Citi massively suppresses home runs. But even assuming it does — and it certainly looks like it does, even if I know better than to trust my eyes — does that mean the Mets should pursue fly-ball pitchers? The argument is, I suppose, that flyball pitchers might have more relative value to the Mets than to other teams, so the Mets could pick them up at a discount.

I just wonder if it really works out that way. For what it’s worth, the Mets’ most fly-ball prone starter in 2010, Johan Santana, far outperformed his peripherals and defense-independent pitching stats, at least partly because he allowed fewer home runs than you’d expect for a guy yielding so many fly balls. But none of the slew of fly-ball heavy relievers in the Mets’ bullpen did the same.

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