Let’s all agree never to speak of that Rockies series ever again. Moving on:

With Jose Reyes off to a hot start, there’s understandably a lot of talk about his future with the Mets. I’ve touched on this before, I know, but I want to go through it again.

People seem certain that Reyes will be gone within the next year, either traded around the deadline or allowed to walk via free agency. And indeed, it’s not hard to envision a scenario in which Reyes plays for another team by 2012. But many of the most vehement voices insist that Reyes is undoubtedly a goner because  a) Sandy Alderson highly values on-base percentage and by leadoff hitter standards, Reyes does not have a very high OBP and b) The Mets’ owners have financial problems and Reyes will be very expensive to re-sign.

Let’s look at the first part first, because there’s actually a lot to unpack there.

There’s a often a weird, judgmental tone assumed when asserting that Alderson values OBP. That’s powerfully dumb. The ability to get on base is the most important offensive skill, and Alderson is absolutely right to value it in his players. Outs are a baseball team’s most precious commodity, and it behooves a team to find players who don’t give them away. Besides, hitters willing to take pitches and work deep in counts are more likely to see pitches they can drive. Plenty of people think otherwise, but it’s not really up for debate: OBP should be highly valued because OBP is highly valuable.

But the argument assumes that Reyes never gets on base, and that’s not really true. Many cite his underwhelming .335 career on-base percentage, but that number includes his first few seasons when he probably shouldn’t have even been in the Majors. Since 2006, Reyes has a .348 OBP, still not wonderful but well above the roughly .332 clip averaged by National League shortstops in that time.

Reyes is not Rickey Henderson, but no one is. Rickey Henderson was a unique player and the greatest leadoff hitter of all time. He also primarily played left field, an offensive position. Reyes plays shortstop, the most premium defense position.

That can’t be overstated. Saying that Alderson will not retain Reyes because Reyes doesn’t have an overwhelmingly high OBP not only massively oversimplifies the situation, but undercuts both Alderson and Reyes.

Presumably Alderson evaluates players on more than just OBP, and Reyes provides value beyond his ability to get on base — even in the eyes of a guy like Alderson who (rightfully) doesn’t put too much stock in the stolen base. Reyes plays good defense at the hardest position and provides more power than most shortstops. Those are valuable abilities. You have to figure Alderson knows, as you and I do, that you can’t just plug Daric Barton in at shortstop and reserve a spot in the playoffs because he gets on base a lot.

It’s worth noting before I move on that in 2010 Reyes endured his worst season in that stat since 2005. He missed most of Spring Training, recall, with thyroid issues and struggled with an oblique injury that led to — absurdly — the Mets deciding he should exclusively hit right-handed. Reyes has chalked up his drop in OBP to being overeager after missing so much time.

In a tiny sample of at-bats this year, Reyes can boast a batting-average fueled .349 OBP, and only two walks. Though it’s way too early to read much into this, he has seen 3.86 pitches per plate appearance in 2011, above his 3.68 career norm and a higher rate than he has in any single season. (If that seems like a very slight difference, it is, but consider that the full range of the stat for Major Leaguers is generally about 3.1-4.5.)

As for part b) above, the one that concludes the Mets will not be able to keep Reyes because the Mets have no money. Obviously I don’t have access to the Mets’ or the Wilpons’ financial books, but assuming that because the owners are in financial straits the team has no operating budget whatsoever seems like another vast oversimplification. Even when Citi Field is as empty as it has been, the Mets bring in a lot of money through a variety of sources, this network included. Just like any business, the club spends money on overhead and salaries, and must invest something to make sure the revenue keeps coming in.

Yes, it’s likely that the regardless of if the Wilpons find a partner, the Mets’ budget will tighten up a bit after the short-sighted extravagance of the Omar Minaya Era. But it’s silly to expect they’ll suddenly start spending like the Pirates. Jose Reyes will make $11 million this year, meaning on a per-year basis his next contract is unlikely to be much more than the difference of one Luis Castillo.

That doesn’t mean the Mets will re-sign him, of course. It’s up to Alderson to determine what Reyes is worth to the Mets and for how long, and it’s up to Reyes and his agents to weigh whether they should take the deal to stay with the Mets or try to cash in on the open market in the offseason. And the chance definitely exists that Alderson will conclude that the Mets can get the most possible value for Reyes by dealing him before the trade deadline.

But even if it does happen, don’t believe it’s solely because of Reyes’ on-base percentage and the team’s finances. These are nuanced decisions.