I’m kind of surprised by the results of the earlier poll. As of right now, 61% of you would not trade Jon Niese for Gio Gonzalez. I voted “yes,” and I figured most of you would — in fact I thought it seemed like such a no-brainer I questioned whether I should even bother posting the poll. I hope the post itself didn’t sway any votes. If I were Sandy Alderson and that deal was on the table, I would trade Niese for Gonzalez before Billy Beane even had a chance to hang up and consult with Jonah Hill.

And yeah, though Niese’s xFIP and FIP might show signs that he could be better than Gonzalez, he just hasn’t been better than Gonzalez — or really anything close. He has been kind of bad and Gonzalez has been kind of awesome. I know there’s a lot to suggest they’ll both come back toward the middle, but I find it hard to believe they’ll cross. If that’s an indication that I lack faith in xFIP, then… well, actually yes: That’s an indication that I lack faith in xFIP.

And beyond that, what puts Gonzalez over the top is that he’s thrown 200 innings in each of the last two seasons. Niese’s injuries have been reasonably minor and trying to figure out which healthy pitcher is more likely to get hurt is silly, but I’ll take the guy who has started off his career showing the durability that Gonzalez has.