This one was on the original list I put together when starting this project, but I’m running it today because Aaron Gleeman set the exact same over-under in a post to Hardball Talk yesterday. I suppose it’s not terribly shocking: Gleeman seems like a reasonable guy and a fan of Johan Santana, and this seems like a reasonable, if perhaps optimistic, projection for Santana.

Context: Johan Santana missed all of 2011 following shoulder surgery. He threw a 29-pitch bullpen session yesterday and is scheduled to make his first spring start on March 5. Santana averaged 32 starts a season from 2004 to 2010, but he will be 33 by Opening Day. Several pitchers that endured the same anterior capsule surgery as Santana have struggled to return to the mound. But Santana is totally sweet.

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