Friday Q&A, pt. 1: Mets stuff

https://twitter.com/patrickboegel/status/279604215830163458

What? Dude, there should be a sandwich named for Mike Piazza at Citi Field regardless of if he makes the Hall of Fame. There should be a standard sandwich named for Mike Piazza available all over the place, like a Reuben or an Elvis. And it’s pretty obvious what it should be: Mike Piazza is an Italian hero. So all your finest Italian meats and cheeses piled high on a hero, with some oil and balsamic vinegar, red roasted peppers, and maybe sundried tomatoes if those are your thing.

https://twitter.com/TheHoeMan16/status/279600909074456576

I have no idea, but I can’t imagine adding Havens does much for a deal at this point beyond freeing up a 40-man roster space for the Mets. Even if you haven’t given up hope for his career, teams aren’t going to give up anything of value for a 26-year-old who has yet to play above Double-A and has never played 100 games in a season. So is Dickey and a non-Harvey, non-Wheeler pitching prospect enough to get a trade for Trumbo and Bourjos done? I kind of doubt it, but I suppose it depends on how much the Angels value the pitching prospect.

I’m way less excited about Trumbo than many Mets fans seem to be, for what it’s worth. He has a ton of power and he hits right handed, both of which would satisfy some of the Mets needs. But without having seen a ton of him in the outfield, I can’t say for certain he’d be a great fit in a corner at Citi Field. And his approach at the plate seems at least a bit foreboding.

Check this out: In 2012, Trumbo posted a .317 on-base percentage and a .491 slugging. Since 2000, only 11 other players have enjoyed seasons with an on-base percentage below .320 and a slugging above .490, and it’s not a very inspiring list of hitters: Jay Gibbons, Jason Lane, Garrett Jones, Jorge Cantu, Nelson Cruz, JJ Hardy, Mike Jacobs, Garrett Anderson, Alfonso Soriano, Tony Batista and Curtis Granderson.

Granderson, Jones and Trumbo all did it in 2012. Of the rest, only Soriano managed an OPS above .800 in the following season. And Batista, Jacobs, Hardy, Cantu, and Lane all collapsed to significantly below average hitters the year after doing it. The endpoints are pretty arbitrary and based on Trumbo’s season, but the point shouldn’t be that difficult to grasp: It’s hard to keep hitting for lots of power without lots of patience.

And since I suspect Trumbo would require more in a deal than Bourjos would, and that Bourjos might come with additional prospects where Trumbo likely would not, I’d take Bourjos over Trumbo. He’s younger, and because of his value on defense I imagine he has a higher floor than Trumbo. His numbers from 2011 don’t seem terribly out of line with how he performed in the Minors, given the expected improvements for a 24-year-old, and I’d take a chance that his 2012 numbers were at least partly the result of playing part time for the first time in his professional career and try to buy low on him instead of buying high on Trumbo.

But all that said, given the price that’s been paid for pitching on the open market, the Mets should probably hold their cards for at least a bit longer and see if someone goes crazy with prospects or young players.

https://twitter.com/Columboid/status/279614969438412800

Nope. He’s 22. I know a knock on Tejada when he was coming up was that due to his body type and physical skills, he didn’t stand to improve much. I… well, I don’t really believe that. Maybe he won’t get faster or more rangey in the field, but I’d bet he gets stronger and more selective at the plate over the next few years.

https://twitter.com/Ceetar/status/279602938173849600

It was Beltran.

https://twitter.com/Beards25/status/279602188014202880

If we’re talking about their baseball prime and not their Mets prime, the Mets get Willie Mays. So that’s sweet.

My starting nine looks like this:

SP: Pedro Martinez

Cases could be made for Tom Seaver, Johan Santana, and oft-forgotten Met Warren Spahn, but Pedro’s 1997-2003 prime was one of the best things we’ll ever see in our lifetimes. <3 Pedro so much.

C: Mike Piazza

Duh.

1B: Keith Hernandez

It was a tough call between Keith, John Olerud and Carlos Delgado — who was an awesome, awesome hitter with the Blue Jays. But Mex wins by a mustache.

2B: Edgardo Alfonzo

Fonzie’s prime didn’t last long, but it provided some of the best seasons in Mets’ history. I know some of you might say Jeff Kent, but f- Jeff Kent. And though Robbie Alomar was probably the best of all of them, I can’t in good conscience include Robbie Alomar even despite the parameters of this exercise.

3B: David Wright

No brainer. Honorable mentions to Hubie Brooks and Chico Walker for having cool names.

SS: Jose Reyes

Another lay-up.

OF: Carlos Beltran, Willie Mays, Darryl Strawberry

Beltran has to play left because of Willie Mays. Willie Mays is Willie Mays. Darryl Strawberry a) still owns the Mets’ home run record and b) one time bought me a sandwich.

Incidentally, by baseball-reference’s WAR, Bernard Gilkey’s 1996 is the best season ever by a Mets right-fielder. But that’s mostly because the defensive WAR kills Strawberry in 1988. I’ll take the Straw Man.

Curious

Everyone’s running wild with trade talk now that the Angels have signed Josh Hamilton and seem to have too many outfielders. They seemed to have too many outfielders last year, too, for what it’s worth, but the two names most frequently being mentioned in rumors are Peter Bourjos and Mark Trumbo.

Here's what Mark Trumbo and Peter Bourjos look like.

Both players bat and throw right-handed. Trumbo is one year and three months older than Bourjos.

In 1175 plate appearances over 301 Major League games the past three seasons, Trumbo has hit .259/.302/.478 with 13 stolen bases in 22 attempts. By fangraphs’ version of WAR, he has been worth 4.6 wins over his career. By baseball-reference’s, he has been worth 4.7 wins over his career. He hit 32 home runs in 2012 and posted a .268/.317/.491 batting line.

In 940 plate appearances over 299 Major League games the past three seasons, Bourjos has hit .247/.301/.402 with 35 stolen bases in 48 attempts. By fangraphs’ version of WAR, he has been worth 8.3 wins over his career, in large part because of his defense in center field. By baseball-reference’s, he has been worth 7.3. He played a part-time role in 2012 and posted a .202/.291/315 line in 168 at-bats.

Trumbo and Bourjos would both be under an acquiring team’s control through arbitration for the next four seasons.

So who ya got?

Thirteen spectacular pork sandwiches that aren’t the McRib

Via Paul Vargas comes Grub Street’s list of thirteen spectacular pork sandwiches that aren’t the McRib. A bunch of these will be familiar to regular TedQuarters readers. I’ve had seven of them — though I haven’t reviewed a few — and been to nine of the places listed. They’re all good, but the only ones I think I’d call “spectacular” would be the inner-circle Sandwich Hall of Famers on the list, the P.B.L.T. and the Momofuku pork bun.

Also, I keep reading about this Brooklyn Sandwich Society, and I’m obviously intrigued even if it seems a bit expensive. But I’m also massively frustrated because I used to live around the corner when there was no such sandwich society in existence. This is a map from my old place to the Brooklyn Sandwich Society:

Dammit.

A brief note on A.J. Pierzynski

Several Mets fans have suggested to me they’d like to see the team sign A.J. Pierzynski. Assuming that would require a multi-year deal or even a lucrative one-year deal, it’s just not a good idea.

Here's what A.J. Pierzynski (right) looks like. As you may know, Pierzynski hit 27 home runs last year. As you may also know, regression to the mean is a extraordinarily powerful force in baseball, and Pierzynski has never before been as good as he was at age 35 in 2012.

In fact, using park- and league-adjusted OPS+, Pierzynski’s 96 career mark in the stat is actually one point lower than Josh Thole’s rate from 2009-2011. Thole fell apart offensively after returning from a concussion in 2012, but if he can return to form, it’s at least even money he’ll be a better hitter than Pierzynski in 2013. And Thole is a full decade younger than Pierzynski.

Oh, and by the best efforts of those who evaluate catcher defense, Pierzynski was actually worse than Thole behind the plate in 2012. And 2011. And 2010.

Teams with financial limitations and almost no outfielders to speak of should not hand out big contracts to 36-year-old catchers coming off the best seasons of their careers.

If Pierzynski hit right-handed and came cheap, he might fit as a platoon partner for Thole. But since Pierzynski and Thole both hit left-handed, the Mets would be paying a premium to displace a 26-year-old who hit like a league average catcher from 2009 to 2011 in favor of a 36-year-old who hit like a league average catcher from 2009 to 2011. If Thole can bounce back and the team can find a suitable right-handed complement, it should be able to get at least the production Pierzynski would provide at the catcher position and dedicate the resources that would be required to sign him toward outfielders.

If the season started today

Here’s my best guess at how the Mets would be set up if the season started today. This is only based on guys on the 40-man roster, which is silly because they’ve got a couple open spots and will inevitably have a bunch of non-roster Spring Training invitees. But the whole exercise is silly; that’s kind of the point:

Starting pitchers
R.A. Dickey
Johan Santana
Jon Niese
Dillon Gee
Matt Harvey

Bullpen
Frank Francisco
Bobby Parnell
Josh Edgin
Elvin Ramirez
Greg Burke
Robert Carson
Jeremy Hefner

Lineup (vs. righties, at least)
1. Ruben Tejada – SS
2. Daniel Murphy – 2B
3. David Wright – 3B
4. Ike Davis – 1B
5. Lucas Duda – LF
6. Mike Baxter – RF
7. Kirk Nieuwenhuis – CF
8. Josh Thole – C

Bench
C Anthony Recker
INF Justin Turner
INF Brandon Hicks
OF Juan Lagares
UTIL Jordany Valdespin

So the starting pitching should be pretty good. The bullpen looks shaky and the outfield scary.

The Mets will not enter the season with the above-listed 25-man roster. Changes will come. How many and how important they are remains to be seen, but it’s pointless to fret now when Spring Training’s still months away. We’ll have plenty of time to fret then.

Notable fashion choices from last night’s Sandy benefit concert

Last night’s 12.12.12 benefit concert for Sandy relief featured some great music, some less-great music, some heartwarming and heartbreaking moments, and a bunch of odd fashion choices.  Obviously I mean no disrespect to those who gave their time to charity last night, all of whom have accomplished way more than I ever will in anything, or the cause itself. It’s just…

Roger Daltrey’s exposed nipples:

12-12-12 The Concert for Sandy Relief at Madison Square Garden - Live Concert

Roger Daltrey’s in pretty good shape for a 68-year-old man, which is to say that he should still never go shirtless in public. Also, it’s strange that Daltrey and Pete Townshend still call themselves The Who when they’re playing without two original members. Paul McCartney and Ringo Starr aren’t about to start touring as The Beatles, I promise you that.

Bon Jovi’s turtleneck:

12-12-12 The Concert for Sandy Relief at Madison Square Garden - Live Concert

In his old age, Bon Jovi looks a little like a very straightlaced and lame version of David Bowie, playing much worse music.

Quentino Tarantino’s Wu Wear sweatshirt (via Twitter):

I usually like Quentin Tarantino’s movies up until the part when Quentin Tarantino shows up in them. He always seems like the kind of guy who’d wear a Wu Wear sweatshirt and Kangol hat to introduce Paul McCartney. Really psyched to see Django Unchained, though. Movie looks awesome.

Finally, and most importantly:

Kanye West’s leather skirt:

kanyeskirtThis is really conflicting. I have long fantasized about a world in which it’d be more socially appropriate for men to wear skirts, and Kanye West is the type of cultural tastemaker the manskirt movement could really use in its corner. But his skirt appears to be leather and he seems to be wearing leather pants under the skirt, both of which run totally counter to the whole point of wearing skirts. How sweaty must Kanye have been, performing under so many hot lights and so much leather? Kanye, if you’re reading this: Cotton. Go for cotton next time. It breathes with the body.

Also, I can’t think of Kanye West anymore without thinking of Aziz Ansari’s cousin Darwish. Language NSFW:

Big East going south?

For my fellow Hoya fans: On one hand, we have Jeff Green’s dunk in the Celtics’ win over the Mavericks last night.

On the other, we have word that the Big East is on the brink of breaking up:

According to reports from the Providence Journal and ESPN.com, the seven Catholic schools in the conference are on the verge of breaking away from the Big East Conference and going their own way. Both reports said the seven schools would have a conference call with Commissioner Mike Aresco Thursday and then announce their plans within the next 24 to 48 hours….

Sources told ESPN.com that it “would be an upset” if the Catholic schools remained in the Big East.

When asked if the Catholics were splitting, a separate Big East source told SNY.tv, “It sure appears that way.”

The ongoing conference realignment has been frustrating to follow, especially for fans of basketball schools without legit football teams. But I’ve been insisting to my friends that as long as Georgetown, Marquette and Villanova stuck together, they’d play in a decent conference. I suspect it’ll still be a while before all the dust settles, but I think those basketball programs are too good to be drowned in the wake of big-conference football.

A new conference of small Catholic schools would hardly be the Big East, obviously, but whatever’s slated to exist as the Big East next year wouldn’t really be the Big East either.

As with most things, I blame Syracuse for all of this.

How much of an upgrade is Cody Ross over Scott Hairston?

In short: Moderate. I’ll be brief here because I’ve got meetings all afternoon.

Here's what Cody Ross looks like. Per the New York Post, the Mets have interest in Ross and view him as a potential everyday player, but see Hairston as more of a platoon outfielder.

Over the course of their careers, Ross has only marginally outhit Hairston against right-handers: Ross has a .727 OPS in the split to Hairston’s .704. But it’s probably telling that while the two have almost exactly the same number of appearances against left-handed pitchers, Ross has nearly twice as many as Hairston against righties. So it could be that Hairston’s numbers against righties are a bit inflated by a lack of exposure to the toughest right-handers.

Other than that, they’re pretty similar players. Ross is seven months younger than Hairston. They’re both adequate defenders in the outfield corners who can fill in at center in a pinch. They both hit for power, but Ross gets on base a bit more. And, again, Ross has had slightly more success against and a lot more exposure to right-handers.

Of course, signing either would give the Mets only one capable right-handed hitting outfielder at the Major League level. It’s unclear how much they’ll cost and how much the Mets have to spend, but bringing in both to join Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Mike Baxter and Lucas Duda could allow them to cobble together a decent outfield by carefully managing platoons and defensive alignments. It might get a little hairy on defense sometimes, but you start Duda when the ground-ball pitchers are on the mound and so on.

The end. Now, the meetings.