Season in preview: The bullpen

It took the Mets until the day before camp closed to settle on a mix of relievers. One wonders exactly what they were looking for in their final Spring Training games, since one of the guys they chose for their big-league bullpen, Sean Green, allowed four runs in 2/3 of an inning on Saturday. Whatever. Here we go:

The Major League bullpen in April: Green, Francisco Rodriguez, Pedro Feliciano, Fernando Nieve, Jenrry Mejia, Ryota Igarashi, Hisanori Takahashi.

Overview: In my senior year of college, I prepped a jazz-composition portfolio for credit. At the end of the semester, I sat down with the music department chair to review my finished material. He listened to the tracks I had recorded and hummed through the charts I had written.

“Inspiration — A; execution — C-minus,” he said.

I had good ideas, he explained, but it was clear I had bungled and botched and half-assed them all. He was right. I was a senior in college, after all. The work was done in a haze and a hurry.

Maybe you see where I’m going with this.

The Mets took precisely the right approach to building a bullpen in the 2010 offseason. They scoured the international markets, found upside arms on the scrap heap, identified useful internal options including converted starters, and avoided blowing resources on pitchers with closer pedigrees like they did the year before. Inspiration — A.

Then, once that collection of potentially valuable bullpen arms was in house and it came time to settle on the right crew for the Major League relief corps, the team proceeded to blow just about every decision it faced. Execution — C-minus.

Apparently blinded by sunk costs, the Mets opted to keep Ryota Igarashi and Green around, even though neither could get the ball over the plate consistently in Spring Training.

Apparently unconcerned about uncertainty in their rotation, the Mets opted to waive Nelson Figueroa rather than hand him a bullpen role, risking losing him to another team or Japan even though he likely represented their best option to replace the first starting pitcher to fall victim to injury or ineffectiveness.

Apparently unconcerned about the fact that three members of their Opening Day bullpen have never thrown a Major League pitch, the Mets reportedly will not force Kiko Calero to report to Triple-A Buffalo, even though, by all accounts, Calero needed only more time to strengthen him arm this spring, and even though Calero is a veteran of 302 2/3 excellent Major League innings, and even though he’s coming off a season in which he posted a 1.95 ERA.

And then there’s the Jenrry Mejia thing. I’ve said my thing on that thing. I refer you to this, this, this, this, and this. I’m kind of sick of shrouding the kid in negativity because he’s a homegrown prospect and I root for homegrown prospects, and now I’ll be rooting like hell for him to dominate in his bullpen role.

The funny thing is, so many people act — and I’m certainly guilty of this myself — as if it’s sort of written in stone that he will. There’s no arguing that he looked great in the Grapefruit League, but 17 innings of Spring Training ball and a rousing endorsement from Jerry Manuel do not necessarily portend Major League success. Big-league hitters — not to mention big-league scouts — are really, really good, recall, and I wonder if Mejia might start looking more like the guy who posted a 4.47 ERA in Double-A last year after the league has seen him a few times.

And then I wonder, of course, if that could ultimately be a ticket back to Binghamton for Mejia, and so a blessing in disguise. And that sucks. This has got to be one of the weirdest fanbase/management divides of all time. I don’t think I’ve ever heard of any team’s fans putting up a more or less unified front urging patience and restraint against a front-office that seems to want no part of it. That’s why you never want your GM making decisions from the hot seat, I guess.

To make matters worse — or perhaps more ridiculous — the going sentiment among Mets fans and the media seems to be that the two sure things in the team’s bullpen are Rodriguez and Feliciano, and I’m not certain either will be that in 2010. The downright existential finish to the Mets’ 2009 campaign helped cover up K-Rod’s miserable second half. The well-compensated closer posted a 6.75 ERA with a 1.42 WHIP after the All-Star Break, and his rate stats in 2009 showed a continuation of career trends toward fewer strikeouts and more walks.

Feliciano, the reliable lefty specialist, could become way less reliable if the Mets make him less of a lefty specialist.

That leaves Nieve, a righty who pitched well — albeit far above his peripherals — in limited innings for the 2009 Mets, and Takahashi, a deceptive lefty long-man who appeared dominant at times in the Grapefruit League. Like Mejia, both are talented mysteries yet to prove they can consistently retire Major League hitters.

Could the Mets’ bullpen succeed? Absolutely. Perhaps K-Rod’s rough second half was just a function of the Mets not being in the pennant race, and Feliciano’s improved cutter will make him more effective against right-handers, plus Takahashi will continue to daze hitters like he did in Spring Training, Nieve will pitch to the potential that made him a top prospect in the Astros’ system, Green and Igarashi will work out their mechanical kinks and Mejia will be every bit as good as advertised and become the dominant eighth-inning guy the Mets seem to want him to be, development be damned.

And in all likelihood, at least some of those things will happen in 2010. All of them won’t, though, and the way the Mets so brazenly went about casting aside their best contingency plans could cost them in time.

The Major League bullpen in September: I’m not even going to try.

How they stack up: This is an exercise in futility, just like attempting to figure out who’s going to be in the Mets’ bullpen in September. There’s so much uncertainty and fluctuation in every bullpen every year that I shouldn’t even try. I’d joke that the Phillies got a head start because Brad Lidge will open the season on the Disabled List, but there’s a reasonable chance Lidge will be awesome again this year. That’s just how it goes.

Season in preview: Right fielders

The Mets are making this endeavor incredibly difficult. I’m trying to finish these previews, plus I’ve got some more writing I want to do before Monday, and they keep making strange moves to knock me off course. Also, I’ve got ribs in the smoker and I need to attend to them soon. I wish the team would consult me about when it was going to leak out information about weird roster decisions.

OK, excuse me for repeating myself and lots of other people in the following post. But what can I write about Jeff Francoeur that hasn’t already been written?

The Major League right fielders in April: Jeff Francoeur. There can be only one.

Overview: After a year and a half of abject suckitude in Atlanta, Francoeur joined the Mets and proceeded to mash the ball. No one is quite sure why. Many point to a change of scenery, or a difference in organizational philosophy. Some cite dumb luck. I’m as baffled today as I was a month ago, so you’ll find no answers here.

All that matters in 2010 is if that’ll continue.

The Mets seem to think it will. They avoided arbitration with Francoeur and will pay him $5 million for his services this season.

I’m skeptical he’ll provide an adequate return. As happy as I am for the Mets and the beat reporters that cover them to have a fresh-faced, charismatic leader like Francoeur, I imagine things will go South quick if he doesn’t hit. And players who do not take pitches rarely continue hitting.

Frenchy pledged to work on his plate discipline this spring, but he literally says that every year.

Will this be the year it happens for him? Maybe. He’s only 26. And hell, perhaps he can become one of baseball’s weird outliers, like the anti-Luis Castillo — a player who can get by and be an adequate Major League hitter without ever developing the ability to distinguish balls from strikes. I don’t see exactly how that would work, but who knows?

I wouldn’t bet on it happening, though. Outliers are called outliers because they lie outside the normal realm.

He earned his chance, though, with his 2009 performance in Flushing. So we will play the waiting game. And smart money says it will take the Mets and their fans quite some time to sour on the Frenchman, so he’ll be given every opportunity to succeed and prove that the late-season stretch in 2009 was no fluke.

The Major League right fielders in September: Fernando Martinez, Francoeur.

If the Fernanchise stays healthy and Francoeur cannot recapture his 2009 magic, the prospect should be in Queens by late summer. Since Martinez has been injury prone and is known to struggle against left-handers, Francoeur’s right-handedness and durability makes him the ideal caddy for the former Teenage Hitting Machine.

How they stack up: Tough to say, as it depends on which Francoeur you’re stacking up. If you’re bullish and using only the Mets’ version of Francoeur, he’s probably second best in the division to Jayson Werth, though there’s a non-zero possibility Jason Heyward could quickly be better than even the good Jeff Francoeur. If you’re bearish and using the full-year 2009 Jeff Francoeur or the 2008 and first half of 2009 Jeff Francoeur, he’s probably worst in the N.L. East.

Up next: I’m going to do a bullpen season preview, but it’ll come tomorrow at some point, as I’m still waiting to see exactly how the pieces settle before I write anything mean. Plus I have to take care of these ribs.

Exsqueeze me?

Right-hander Kiko Calero, who did not make the team out of spring training despite a 1.95 ERA with the Florida Marlins last season, is being given the choice of whether he wants to report to Buffalo. The Mets won’t force him into playing for the Bisons. Calero would earn $15,000 a month with Buffalo.

Adam Rubin, ESPNNewYork.com.

Huh. I’m no expert, and I’m sure Kiko Calero’s a nice dude and all, and you probably want to do right by the guy, but the Mets did sign him to a Minor League contract, and he is the reliever in the organization coming off the best 2009 season and they are breaking camp with three relievers who have yet to throw a pitch at the Major League level.

Season in preview: Center fielders

Word is Gary Matthews Jr. will start on Opening Day for the Mets. The younger Gary Matthews. Old Man Matthews’ kid.

Forgive the forthcoming snark.

The Major League center fielders in April: Matthews, Angel Pagan.

Overview: Neither of these men is Carlos Beltran. No man but Carlos Beltran is Carlos Beltran, and there’s some chance Carlos Beltran is not a man at all. The jury is still out on if he’s superhuman.

But it is not reasonable to say, “oh, well, one center fielder who is not Carlos Beltran is the same as any other center fielder who is not Carlos Beltran,” which, by suggesting he’ll platoon switch-hitting Gary Matthews Jr. and switch-hitting Angel Pagan based on favorable matchups, is what Jerry Manuel is doing.

It has been three long years since Matthews posted a season as good as the one Pagan provided the Mets in 2009, and Matthews spent the final two of those toiling comfortably below the Major League replacement level. Perhaps there’s something to be said for a change of scenery, not to mention the switch to the easier league, but to think Matthews, at 35, could suddenly start again performing as well as Pagan did just last year on either side of the ball represents the type of logic that– oh, right. The Mets.

The good news is it shouldn’t matter come mid-May or so, provided Beltran’s recovery from mysterious offseason knee surgery remains on track. Perhaps sometime before then, Pagan will establish himself — even in the eyes of the Mets — as the superior center fielder and earn the lion’s share of at-bats.

Here’s hoping that happens, and quickly.

If Beltran returns, Mets fans must hope he returns to being Beltran. Beltran hit as well if not a bit better than he always does in 2009, but the elements that elevate him to his own strata —  the Carlosphere? — went missing with the knee injury. For the first time in his career, he did not run the bases well or demonstrate a ton of range in center field.

Beltran will turn 33 later this month, and so it’s not reasonable to expect him to ever quite return to the form he showed in 2006, 2007 and 2008. But can he return to greatness? I’d say so. Like I’m not about to bet against David Wright, I’m not about to bet against Carlos Beltran.

Oh, and remember what I said about Jose Reyes? About being psyched to see him play baseball again? Triple that excitement for Beltran. My tongue-in-cheekiness about Luis Castillo being my favorite baseball player aside, Carlos Beltran is actually my favorite player to watch, in a landslide.

I’ve been through this before: I think I could write a whole blog just called Carlos Beltran Playing Baseball, and just recap whatever Beltran did that day. His game is like minimalist art. People would probably get tired of reading it, but I’d never get tired of writing it.

The Major League center fielders in September: Beltran, Pagan.

Given the way the Mets make decisions, this is probably wishful thinking on my part.

How they stack up: When Beltran plays, assuming he’s healthy, he’ll be the best center fielder in the division. When Matthews plays, assuming he’s playing anything like he did the past three years, he’ll be the worst. When Pagan plays, he’ll likely fall somewhere in the middle, probably closer to the bottom.

D.J. Short on Jenrry Mejia

Of course, the jury is still out whether Mejia can actually be a starting pitcher in the major leagues, as his secondary pitches need some work, but that’s exactly why he should be in the minor leagues right now. I can’t wait for the irony of seeing him pitch in a game in which the Mets are getting pounded because their starting pitching has let them down once again.

With this decision, Omar Minaya and Manuel are officially “Thelma and Louise,” as far as I’m concerned, tying their short-term fate to the organization’s most promising right arm. Let’s just hope that Mejia isn’t the car.

D.J. Short, Hardball Talk.

As they say here on the Internet, “this.”

Season in preview: Left fielders

Slap-happy from crazy work week + Canadians = This won’t be good.

The Major League left fielders in April: Jason Bay, Frank Catalanotto

One tenet of the Abraham Nunez Axiom is that when the Mets are deciding between two players to back up a lesser player (in this case, Mike Jacobs), they’ll choose the one with less upside. And so the Mets have Catalanotto on the club, and not Chris Carter.

Overview: Jason Bay is a polite Canadian power hitter. He seems happy that his ability to hit home runs and get on base earned him a four-year, $66 million contract this offseason, but he has told reporters he would also be happy in the career he thought he would pursue after college: zinc smelting. That’s no joke. He had an internship lined up and everything.

You don’t just jump right into paid work at the zinc-smelting plant. You have to cut your teeth first, pay your dues. Do whatever zinc-smelting interns do. Our interns at at the SNY digital department do stats research and figure out what we’re going to talk about on New York Baseball Today and try to figure out ways to get people to visit our websites, which is basically all stuff I do, only they don’t get paid for it. So maybe zinc-smelting interns just smelt zinc for free. Suckers.

I don’t know where zinc comes from and I don’t know how zinc gets smelted, exactly. I think the process is used to create a specific type of sunblock found most frequently on the noses of 1980s lifeguards. In that case, it’s probably good Jason Bay went into power hitting, because no one wears that stuff anymore.

What I do know is that Bay will hit home runs, even in Citi Field. Though Bay benefited from Fenway Park’s dimensions in 2009, his new home does appear to play well for right-handed pull hitters, and he’s one of those.

He’ll also likely get on base around 38% of the time, if not more. That’s good, especially since the Mets will field an Opening Day lineup that includes two guys — Mike Jacobs and Rod Barajas — who couldn’t muster a .300 on-base percentage in 2009 and several more who hovered only barely above that mark.

The main downside to Bay is that it may at times appear the Mets would be better off replacing him in left field with a solid block of zinc. By both UZR and +/-, Bay ranked among the worst left-fielders in the Majors last season, and to the eye this spring, he has appeared slow-footed in pursuit of balls hit to the gaps.

The other downside is that the Red Sox supposedly backed off their pursuit of Bay due to concerns that he would eventually need knee surgery. Who knows?

Unless and until that happens, Bay’s steady production from left field should come as a welcome relief for a team that has fielded such luminaries as Cory Sullivan, Jeremy Reed, Wilson Valdez, Damion Easley, Marlon Anderson and David Newhan (among other, better-hitting players) in the spot in the past three years.

The Major League left fielders in September: Bay and Angel Pagan.

Assuming Carlos Beltran returns to health, Pagan becomes the primary backup outfielder. That may not necessarily spell the end for Catalanotto, of course. I’m speculating on the fringes of the roster in September. We’ll see what happens.

How they stack up: I don’t think Raul Ibanez is likely to repeat his 2009 performance on either side of the ball in 2010, meaning Bay is probably the class of the N.L. East left-fielders. The Marlins’ Chris Coghlan is a nice young player who will only get better, but he doesn’t have the power to stack up to Bay just yet.

Mets trim roster, cut Figueroa, lose crowd

The Mets announced a round of cuts last night, trimming from their big-league roster Nelson Figueroa, Kiko Calero, Chris Carter, Bobby Parnell, Russ Adams and Elmer Dessens.

I’ll weigh in on some of these moves more later today when I get to my bullpen preview. I’m waiting to see exactly how the Mets intend to shape their relief corps before I pen my final preseason Jenrry Mejia freakout.

I’ll say now that it’s a bit puzzling that the team will opt for three or possibly four pitchers in its Major League bullpen who did not throw a pitch in The Show last year over Kiko Calero, who pitched to a 1.95 ERA with 10.4 K/9 for the Marlins last year. Word is he’ll need more time to strengthen up and stretch out, and here’s hoping he stops by Anchor Bar while he’s doing that. Those wings are delicious.

Something I’ve learned from several years of fretting over the margins of the Mets’ roster is that these Opening Day moves don’t matter a whole ton. They may not be indicative of the world’s most promising thought process, but ultimately, the Mets will futz with their roster a dozen times in April, and at some point a proven professional like Calero should find his way onto the team. If and when he doesn’t, and when Jerry Manuel keeps trotting out some obviously lesser pitcher over and over, that’s when we raise hell.

The concerning cut among last night’s group — the one that would be perplexing if it wasn’t entirely predictable — is Figueroa. Not only did the veteran right-hander represent the Mets’ most proven insurance policy for the starting rotation, he pitched well this spring and has said he would go pitch in Japan if he didn’t make the Major League roster.

We shall see, I suppose. Figueroa grew up a Mets fan, and we tend to come crawling back. There’s some chance the Mets talked it through with Figueroa, or called his bluff, and know he’ll actually accept an assignment to Buffalo should he clear waivers.

If the Mets lose Figueroa, it will be another strike against Omar Minaya and his staff. No one’s arguing Figgy’s a Cy Young Award hopeful, but given the state of the Mets’ rotation, it’s wacky to put faith in Hisanori Takahashi and Fernando Nieve as fill-in options — two guys with big-league resumes far shorter than Figueroa’s — just because you’re eager to get Sean Green on the Major League roster to start the season.

I think the most interesting thing about the cuts, though, has been the reaction throughout the Mets’ blogosphere.

Back in the day — and I’m not calling “first,” here, this isn’t that — when I would bitch and moan about the 25th man on the Mets’ roster, most of the other voices in the Mets’ blogosphere, and especially comments sections, poo-pooed it. It seemed like John Peterson from Blastings! Thrilledge and I got really worked up over some moves, and few others paid much mind.

Now, it seems in every corner, Mets fans are lining up to rip the front office for this series of decisions. It’s always fun for the sabermetric sort to whine about the 12th pitcher on the staff, but it’s a pretty damning indictment when the entire fanbase turns on a general manager. I’m starting to think 2010 will be an interesting season for the Mets.

Season in preview: Shortstops

Remember when I said I might run out of steam with these season preview pieces? I’ll be honest: I’m getting there. Turns out the week before the baseball season starts is a busy time at a regional sports network, and I’ve been a little under the weather on top of that.

But I’m halfway there, and though I don’t imagine anyone much cares, I’m determined to finish. These will probably be getting progressively shorter though. Here goes this one:

The Major League shortstops in April: Jose Reyes, Alex Cora, perhaps a week of Ruben Tejada

Overview: OK, hear me out: Opening Day is meaningless. It is a pageant. It’s fun, and it’s about my favorite day of the year, but the only thing that will distinguish the game the Mets will play on Monday from the 161 other games they’ll play in 2010 is all the red, white and blue bunting.

Bunting is awesome, don’t get me wrong. I love me some bunting. The decorative kind, not the productive-out kind. I really don’t like that kind.

Anyway, I have no idea why so many people are making such a big stink over the fact that Jose Reyes will sit out Opening Day.

No, that’s not true. I know exactly why people are making a big stink over the fact that Jose Reyes will sit out Opening Day. People love making big stinks, and no matter what the Mets do these days people are bound to make a big stink over it.

But what matters is that it doesn’t much matter. Yeah, the Mets would have a much better chance of winning their first four or five games with Reyes at shortstop than with Cora or Tejada, but it’s not as if having Reyes in the lineup guarantees victories and having him out guarantees otherwise, no matter how anyone makes it seems.

And given the way things went down for the Mets and Reyes last season, I find it hard to fault the team for playing it safe with the shortstop early this season. They’re better off losing him for a couple of games to start the year — “babying” him, if you will — than taking any sort of chance that he’ll push himself before he’s fully stretched out and ready to go and re-injure his hamstring or tweak something else.

The Mets need to maximize the amount of time Jose Reyes spends on the field in 2010 because Jose Reyes is awesome at baseball. It’s easy to forget that because we haven’t seen him play the sport regularly in so long, but the dude is damn near magnificent.

There’s what we see on paper: He plays competent defense at the sport’s most demanding position, gets on at a good clip from from the leadoff spot, hits for some power, and steals lots of bases at a high rate.

And then there’s all that stuff that slips through the spreadsheets: Dancing, bouncing, smiling Jose Reyes, one of the game’s most exciting players, engaging the fans and enraging the opposition.

So I guess, when I think about it that way, I can understand some of the apparent bitterness toward the club for holding Reyes out of the opener. I so, so badly want to see Jose Reyes play baseball again.

But I am patient. It will happen soon enough. And it will be awesome.

The Major League shortstops in September: Reyes, Cora

It’s going to suck hardcore if Reyes gets hurt again. If that happens, slot in Tejada. (Remember, I promised no more Cora-fueled rants until Opening Day, which is why none are included in this preview.)

How they stack up: The N.L. East is an excellent division for shortstops. If Reyes stays healthy, he should be better than all of them but Hanley Ramirez, who is on his own plane.

Considering at-bat music

Chris Coghlan needs your help. He has to pick his at-bat music, and he’s asking fans for suggestions.

I’ve spent countless hours considering what my closer music would be, but at-bat music is a different beast. As Coghlan points out, you’ve only got 7-10 seconds, so you want something instantly identifiable as your own. That’s part of what makes Daniel Murphy’s selection of the Dropkick Murphy’s “I’m Shipping Up To Boston” so awesome. You know from the first notes that Murph is approaching the plate.

With closer music, I’d go for something non-traditional, but there’s no time for mind game with at-bat songs, methinks. I don’t know. I’ll have to consider that more.

Also, I’ve got to figure club PA operators are flexible enough that they could play any 10-second snippet of a song, but for the sake of this post, I’m assuming it’s got to be the intro. To be honest, I haven’t thought this entirely through as it is, and the realm of possibilities opened up by that type of flexibility just makes the choice too difficult.

Oh, and obviously it’s got to be an instrumental segment. I don’t think that’s necessarily a rule per se, but you don’t want lyrics in there, muddling up your walk to the plate.

Anyway, this isn’t a conclusive list or anything, but from a quick turn though my iPod, here are a few I might pick.

Rage Against the Machine — Know Your Enemy

This is nowhere close to my favorite Rage song, but that guitar intro is as cool as any they’ve got. Excellent use of the toggle switch.

This seems like such an obvious choice that it’s a near certainty some Major Leaguer is already using it. I just figured I’d throw it in here as a nod to Tom Morello, a Cubs fan with a pretty awesome Twitter account.

Cake — Love You Madly

The hi-hat riff at the top here is a little long, but using this song would go a long way toward accomplishing my secondary agenda of ensuring that vibraslap echoed throughout a Major League stadium. (That’s the beyoyoyoyoing noise, like the sound Bevis always imitated.)

I feel like the guitar hits here are heavy enough to let the pitcher know you’ve got some power, the song is funky enough to show the world you’re a down guy, and the tone of it is relaxed enough to let the fans know you’re not going to beat yourself up if the at-bat doesn’t go your way. And it makes that all clear in the first few seconds, making this a pretty excellent choice for a walk-up song.

Morphine — Yes

Unfortunately, this song does not seem to exist on the Internet in any sort of form that makes it easy for me to play for you. It’s here on last.fm, but you’ll only here a 30 second snippet from the middle, and not the slinky, awesome, bari-sax driven intro.

It’d be a sweet choice for an achingly cool, slick hitter like Carlos Beltran when he struts up to the plate. I couldn’t pull this song off.

Perhaps the greatest picture ever taken

There are a few people, or entities, who make me giggle every single time I see them in a photograph: Bill Clinton, Mr. Met… Actually, that might be it. I can’t think of any others off hand.

Huge, huge hat tip to Craig Calcaterra for pointing me to this, from Talking Points Memo:

Sorry, Shaq and a panda. You had such a good run as my desktop background since unseating this epic would-be buddy movie poster.