A little rich?

Yesterday the names Domonic Brown and Mike Minor surfaced in trade rumors as possible returns for the remaining two (probably awesome) months of Carlos Beltran’s season, and Mets fans, for the most part, salivated. Brown, a 23-year-old Phillies outfielder, entered the season ranked fourth overall on Baseball America‘s annual Top 100 prospects list. Minor, a 23-year-old lefty starter for the Braves, came in at 37 on the same list, and the particular rumor mentioning his name said the deal would include another prospect.

If those potential hauls sound a little rich for Beltran, it’s because, I suspect, they are. Looking back over recent deadline deals for pure rentals — pending free agents — there aren’t a ton of examples of top 50 prospects being moved.

Granted, teams value prospects based on their own scouting and not on Baseball America’s list. That’s just a decent general guideline to gauge a young player’s reputation around the game. Plus, there have been a handful of big prospects moved at or before the deadline: Justin Smoak, ranked 13th heading into last season, was dealt in the Cliff Lee trade; Brett Wallace (40) was dealt in a package for Matt Holliday in 2009; in 2008, Matt LaPorta (23) was traded by the Brewers to land CC Sabathia and Andy LaRoche (31) helped the Dodgers add Manny Ramirez in a three-way deal.

Obviously every season’s trade market is its own unique snowflake, and if Beltran is the best available hitter this year perhaps Sandy Alderson can get enough teams in the bidding to drive the outfielder’s price tag up. But since Beltran comes with a pretty hefty injury risk and will not bring back draft picks to his acquiring team, it seems unlikely he’ll command the type of haul that Lee, Holliday, Sabathia or Manny did.

We can certainly hope that he does, and it only takes one desperate GM to offer Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips and Cliff Lee (and footnote Lee Stevens) for Bartolo Colon. But you’ll have to put me down for pleasantly surprised if the Mets wind up with a prospect of Brown’s caliber or a package including Minor in a deal. Trade-rumor guys traffic in information gleaned from conversations with front-office types, and if I had to guess — and excuse me for conspiracy theorizing — I’d say any talk of a return that heavy for Beltran is coming out of Flushing.

Thanks to @AMirch729 for Twitter help on this one.

Also, it’s worth noting that the Dodgers traded Carlos Santana for Casey Blake in the 2008 season, while Santana was in the midst of a breakout year in High A ball. Santana was not on the Top 100 prospects list before that season, but was ranked 26th the following year. Insert “Evil Ways” joke here.

Wait, really?

Wait, that Domonic Brown? The 23-year-old outfielder who was ranked the fourth-best prospect in baseball by Baseball America coming into the season?

I mean, it would absolutely destroy me to see Beltran play out the next couple of months with the Phillies. And I approach all trade-deadline speculation with tons of skepticism, as you probably know. But I had no idea we were talking about that caliber prospect.

Because if you’re dealing Beltran for Brown, not only are you trading two months of Beltran’s awesomeness for several years of a highly touted, Major League-ready young outfielder that could blossom into a star, but you’re taking from the Phillies one of their few players on the short side of 30.

Doesn’t smell like something the Phillies would do. Seems like a no-brainer from the Mets’ standpoint, no matter how much it helps their rivals this season.

Huh?

Sandy Alderson might enjoy sending Beltran, his flu and the remaining $8 million (for the moment) on his contract to the Red Sox, if only to torment the Yankees.

Filip Bondy, N.Y. Daily News.

Wait, does anyone actually believe Sandy Alderson thinks that way? I thought the going oversimplification of Alderson is that he’s a shrewd, calculating GM who cares only about the numbers and would sell his own mother to the hated Yankees if it meant bringing back a cost-controlled contributor with a high on-base percentage.

Come to think of it, does anyone actually believe any Major League GM thinks that way? Like is there really anyone who could rise to the highest executive level in the game making vindictive moves aimed at needling perceived (but not actual) rivals, instead of, you know, moves to better his team? Maybe some talk-radio type would run a team like that if he were put at the helm, but he’d also run all the best players out of town for unclutchitude and ill effects on clubhouse chemistry, so it probably wouldn’t last.

Smart money says if Sandy Alderson trades Beltran to the Red Sox, it’s because the Red Sox presented the best offer.

Yeah, I’m picking nits on a throwaway line, and I should probably just ignore this stuff. Whatever. I’m short on sleep this morning.

Ubaldo Jimenez stuff

The Internet is ablaze with rumors that Ubaldo Jimenez could be traded before the 2011 trade deadline, possibly to the Yankees. The talk seems to stem from a Ken Rosenthal video blog in which he mentions that the Rockies are getting calls about, but not actively shopping, their ace right-hander.

According to Cot’s, Jimenez is signed through 2012 with club options for 2013 and 2014. Assuming the Rockies exercise those options, Jimenez will cost them roughly $18 million total for the next three seasons. If you’re playing at home, that means the Rockies have locked up the next three seasons of a pitcher with 131 career ERA+ for little more than the price of one season of Jason Bay.

Plus, any team acquiring Jimenez does not acquire the right to his 2014 option. As Tim Dierkes points out, that makes him more valuable to the Rockies than any acquiring team, much in the same way David Wright is more valuable to the Mets than to any potential trade partner.

Also, excellent young pitchers on long-term team-friendly deals don’t come around very often, and clubs that find them aren’t generally that eager to move them. The Rockies may be far from contention in 2011, but they’re hardly in position to write off 2012-2014. In other words, it just doesn’t make a hell of a lot of sense for them to trade Jimenez unless a) they can command a massive haul in return and/or b) they know something about him the rest of us don’t. (His diminished velocity in 2011 could speak to the latter, though his peripherals are in line with past years.)

OK, the point here is spiraling away from me. If Jimenez is both fully healthy and truly available, it makes sense for most teams — not just the Yankees — to be calling the Rockies about working out a deal. That includes the Mets.

Here’s where that whole buyer/seller I keep bringing up comes in. You’re going to say, “Oh well the Mets can’t be buyers when they’re sitting at .500 and 8.5 games back of the Wild Card,” but when the next two years of Jimenez are in play, you know, sometimes you have to get when the getting is good. The Mets need frontline starting pitching, they don’t have any on the immediate horizon in the farm system, and paying for it on the free agent market is a fool’s errand.

But like I said, I don’t think the Rockies will really trade him, plus the Mets probably don’t have the requisite chips to get that sort of deal done anyway, so it’s immaterial.

All this has meant nothing. Carry on.