Category Archives: Baseball
Sandy Alderson is a pretty smart dude and he probably has more than one tool with which to assess ballplayers
I keep making snarky references to the Alderson-only-cares-about-OBP meme on Twitter and people keep taking them seriously, so I’m going to be as straightforward as I possibly can:
Sandy Alderson, like every Major League GM, has more than one tool at his disposal with which to assess baseball players.
You may have heard about or even read the book Moneyball, which details the way the Oakland A’s front office identified a market inefficiency that existed in baseball in the late 80s and early 90s — namely that most teams did not properly value the ability to get on-base, the most important offensive skill.
And so, even though — in part because of the book Moneyball — that inefficiency no longer really exists, you apparently assume Alderson only looks at on-base percentage when evaluating players.
That is certainly not the case. When I suggest it is on Twitter, I am being sarcastic.
It is true that Jose Reyes’ on-base percentage has historically not been outstanding compared to those of other leadoff hitters.
But Reyes plays shortstop and very few shortstops hit as well as he does. In fact, dating back to 2006, really only three shortstops have hit better than Reyes: Troy Tulowitzki, Hanley Ramirez and Derek Jeter. All three are locked up to long-term contracts, and Jeter appears to be tanking rather rapidly.
Alderson, I assume, knows all this and will use the information to inform the Mets’ decision on how to approach Reyes’ future with the club.
The kroddiest inning
Giants ninth. F.Rodriguez pitching. Burriss hit an infield single to shortstop. Burriss stole second. Ford hit an infield single to third, Burriss to third. Rowand fouled out to first baseman I.Davis, Ford to second. Tejada popped out to second baseman Dan.Murphy. Fontenot was intentionally walked. Posey flied out to center fielder Pridie.
It’s tough to completely kill Francisco Rodriguez for loading the bases in the top of the ninth last night. Neither of the two hits left the infield. Darren Ford might have been out at first on his bunt if Daniel Murphy didn’t drop David Wright’s throw. Stuff like that.
Still, by loading the bases and escaping without allowing a run — as our man Catsmeat pointed out last night — Rodriguez managed to both raise his already massive WHIP and lower his puny earned-run average. If you’re playing at home, he now can boast a miserable 1.833 mark in the first metric — a rate to make Oliver Perez blush — and a 1.50 ERA.
This is why we know the sample sizes are still too small to make any judgments. Stuff like this can’t last.
Just for fun, I used the baseball-reference Play Index to look up how many guys have thrown at least 20 innings in a season with an ERA below 2.00 and a WHIP above 1.50. This is for a full season, so it’s not a fair assessment of the rarity of K-Rod’s stretch. Presumably many more players have gone 12-inning stretches with absurdly high WHIPs and low ERAs, the stats just got buried in the larger samples.
Anyway, it’s not a long list. And it turns out there was a pitcher named Crazy Schmit:
| Rk | Player | IP | Year | Tm | Lg | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jeff Keener | 1.701 | 1.61 | 22.1 | 1982 | STL | NL |
| 2 | Bobby Castillo | 1.603 | 1.11 | 24.1 | 1979 | LAD | NL |
| 3 | Hal Kelleher | 1.520 | 1.80 | 25.0 | 1935 | PHI | NL |
| 4 | Larry Casian | 1.629 | 1.93 | 23.1 | 1995 | CHC | NL |
| 5 | Claude Willoughby | 1.609 | 1.96 | 23.0 | 1925 | PHI | NL |
| 6 | Harry Otis | 1.671 | 1.37 | 26.1 | 1909 | CLE | AL |
| 7 | Pete Appleton | 1.551 | 1.82 | 29.2 | 1927 | CIN | NL |
| 8 | Crazy Schmit | 1.809 | 1.99 | 22.2 | 1901 | BLA | AL |
When will now be then?
Check it out: Starting at 5 p.m., we’re live from McFadden’s at Citi Field.
Reminder: Me doing stuff
Just a friendly reminder that I’ll be co-hosting a live streaming web show from the Citi Field McFadden’s with Matt Cerrone this afternoon at 5 p.m. If all goes according to plan, John Franco and WFAN’s Ed Coleman will join us. I’ll be the ridiculously handsome guy.
I’ll have a link for you here closer to the time, or you can access the stream from SNY.tv.
Don’t cross the streams… It would be bad.
Mets Minor League Report: Wilmer Flores
John Matlack begat David Wright
The Common Man traces a Mets’ transaction tree starting with John Matlack, ending with, among others, David Wright. I love this stuff. Via HardballTalk.
Mejia as closer?
The way Mejia pitches to me just simply is not the makeup of a major league starting pitcher. He isn’t made to be throwing 100+ pitches every 5th day. This is why I think when Mejia returns from Tommy John in ~1 year it’s time to start grooming him as the long term closer for the New York Mets. Before you get mad that I am converting the team’s #1 prospect to a closer, remember that your own Francisco Rodriguez was once the #1 prospect in the Angels system and he’s done quite well for himself.
– Joe DeMayo, St. Lucie to Flushing.
Gotta disagree with Joe here. First things first: No human is really made to be throwing 100+ pitches every fifth day. Yeah, Mejia’s currently limited arsenal does seem to lend itself to shorter stints, what with the great fastball and less-great secondary stuff, but I’d say it’s too soon to commit him to a bullpen role.
Is there evidence yet that starting is worse on the arm? (That’s not a rhetorical question; I’m straight-up asking.) Starters throw more innings, obviously, but relievers are often asked — as Mejia was last year — to throw on three or four straight nights, and can never develop a starter’s routine.
Thing is, starting pitchers are much, much more valuable than relievers, even closers, in part because starting pitching is a lot more difficult. That’s why, as Joe points out, so many of the great relievers are former (and in most cases failed) starters. It’s a hell of a lot easier to fool batters for one inning than for seven.
Part of the fallout from the Omar Minaya administration’s rushing and hyping of prospects is that we hear about young Mets for so long that they seem close to washed up when they haven’t even reached the age at which they should be expected to contribute to the Major League club.
Jenrry Mejia is six months younger than Matt Harvey. Mejia has a whole career ahead of him, and whenever he returns from the elbow injury he should be given further opportunities to prove his worth as a starting pitcher. Only when he demonstrates for sure that he cannot handle it should he be moved into a relief role.
Watch me do stuff
As you may have seen on MetsBlog, Matt Cerrone and I will be co-hosting a live streaming web show from the Citi Field McFadden’s tomorrow afternoon at 5 p.m., previewing the Mets’ series with the Giants and talking about stuff. It should take about a half hour, depending on how long we go with our guests. And it’ll be live, cutting out that pesky delay between when I think my real-time thoughts and when you can access them on this blog.
There’s still no such thing as a pitching prospect
Jenrry Mejia was examined at the Hospital for Special Surgery today and diagnosed with a complete MCL tear in his pitching elbow. Doctors recommended surgery, but Mejia will seek a second opinion. That doctor will probably also recommend surgery.
If you’re playing at home that’s Tommy John surgery, which likely means a year on the shelf for the Mets’ top prospect. And it means Mejia should probably no longer be referred to as “the Mets’ top prospect.”
Poor kid.
The good news, I suppose, is that the injury is not to Mejia’s shoulder. Pitchers way more often successfully return from elbow issues. Still, it sucks.