Patrick Flood talks to David Wright about the conclusions drawn from all the research on his streakiness this offseason. Wright, unsurprisingly, did not read it.
The Mets are ready to shred their final four bracket and chart a different course at second base.
Disenchanted with what he has seen from Luis Castillo, Daniel Murphy, Brad Emaus and Justin Turner this spring, manager Terry Collins is preparing to name Luis Hernandez the starter at second base, a source with direct knowledge of Collins’ plans told The Post yesterday. The move will be contingent upon Collins convincing the front office to find roster space for Hernandez.
Wait a minute, really? That Luis Hernandez? The guy with the career .302 Minor League — Minor League! — on-base percentage. All due respect to the saddest home run ever, but I’m not buying it.
For one thing, keep in mind we’ve already seen reports from MetsBlog that Brad Emaus is in the lead, from the Times that Luis Castillo is in the lead, and from the Daily News that Daniel Murphy is in the lead. So it seems unlikely to me that, out of nowhere, Hernandez has wrested the position from four competitors by March 15 and only the Post has the scoop.
Second, as Matt Cerrone just pointed out, if the Mets were interested in an all-defense, no-hit second baseman — despite all Collins’ claims that second base is an offensive position — why wouldn’t Chin-Lung Hu then be added to the mix? Hu, after all, is also an apt defender, and probably offers more offensive upside than Hernandez.
I’m going to stick with my supposition that nothing has been decided yet. Because I don’t really want to consider yet the possibility that the new front office and manager would make Luis Hernandez an everyday player. I’ll wait until there’s stronger evidence that it’s actually happening.
I will seize this opportunity to advocate for Justin Turner some more. He often seems to be the forgotten man in what was thought to be the four-horse race for the second-base job. I get the feeling some Mets fans see him as almost interchangeable with Emaus — righty hitting offensive second basemen without much in the way of a Major League pedigree. And everyone figures since Emaus is a Rule 5 guy and Turner has options, Emaus would get the nod over Turner, all things being equal.
But I’m not sure all things are equal. As I pointed out Friday, Turner’s Triple-A stats from 2010 are actually way more impressive than Emaus’ since he played in a much tougher hitting environment. Plus Turner has experience playing shortstop, for what that’s worth. I haven’t seen nearly enough of him to say how he looks defensively, plus I’m not sure I’d trust my eye anyway. I’m just saying he needs a lobby, or at the very least some reporter to come out and say he’s in the lead for the second-base job.
Oh wait, I am a reporter. Nevermind that I’ve been away from Port St. Lucie a full week now and I didn’t really talk to anyone about Turner. How should I carefully word this completely fictional scoop?
How’s this? Some Mets people have been really impressed with Justin Turner’s work in camp so far and believe he could emerge as the team’s starting second baseman by Opening Day. Run with it, Internet!
Joel Sherman put together a list of some facts about Mariano Rivera. They are predictably awesome.
I do something like this every year, and at some point it became less about trying to predict what players would fill certain spots on the Mets and more about certain hangups I have about odds.
(I present the odds here in the frequently used format — [Chance of an event not happening]:[Chance of an event happening]. In other words, the chance of rolling a three on a six-sided die is here noted 5:1. There are five outcomes on the die that are not three, and one three.)
For the purposes of this discussion, I am assuming that Francisco Rodriguez, Bobby Parnell and D.J. Carrasco are locks for the Mets’ bullpen. I know there has been talk that the Mets would give Carrasco a shot to start, but with Chris Young and Chris Capuano healthy, I figure Carrasco’s bound for a relief role. For that matter, I did not include Capuano as a candidate for the bullpen.
Figuring the Mets will carry seven relievers, that leaves four open spots. By my count, there are 12 guys still in camp in competition: Manny Acosta, Pedro Beato, Taylor Buchholz, Pat Misch, Oliver Perez, Boof Bonser, Blaine Boyer, Tim Byrdak, Ryota Igarashi, Jason Isringhausen, Mike O’Connor and Taylor Tankersley.
Check this out: If Terry Collins went full chaos-theory and decided to fill the remaining bullpen slots by picking four names out of a hat, each guy would have a 1 in 3 shot of making it, or 2:1 odds.
And yet somewhere this offseason, someone will inevitably take a similar approach to roster speculation but give 2:1 odds to only the most likely candidate. Find that man and place a bet with him. Bet lots of money on that most likely candidate making the team, and ask the blogger or reporter to make good on his odds by doubling your money when that guy does make the team.
Actually, don’t do that. It’s a jerky thing to do. My point is only that if the odds look a little strange here, it’s because there are so many open spots and the Mets will inevitably fill them.
OK, back to that: Other factors in the Mets’ decision include that Manny Acosta and Pat Misch are out of options, Pedro Beato is a Rule 5 pick and Boof Bonser has an opt-out clause in his contract that lets him walk if he doesn’t make the Major League roster, though he’s no lock to leave.
So without further ado, here we go:
Taylor Buchholz (1:5): Buchholz, now 21 months removed from Tommy John surgery, appears healthy and has been effective in his Grapefruit League outings so far. Since he got a Major League contract, I considered placing him among the “locks” that wouldn’t be listed here, but having 12 guys for four slots made the math on that hat point way easier.
Tim Byrdak (1:2): Thus far, good news for Mets bullpen candidates with my initials. The Mets will definitely need a lefty and Byrdak is one. The veteran has been an effective if unspectacular lefty specialist for four seasons. He’s 37, but he’ll probably only be asked to face one batter at a time.
Jason Isringhausen (5:7): OMG LOL! Next the Mets are going to sign Craig Swan, Sidd Finch and Jay Hook amirite? After inspiring a full day’s worth of tired Twitter humor, Isringhausen has drawn nothing but oohs and ahhs in camp. He is 38 and has a variety of injuries in his history that could act up at any time, but it sure sounds like he’s going to be on the team if he’s healthy on Opening Day.
Pedro Beato (1:1): A Queens native with an impressive fastball, Beato likely has a leg up on his competitors because cutting him would mean sending him back to the Orioles and, at 24, he can boast more upside than Pat Misch or Manny Acosta.
Manny Acosta (7:5): You know, I’m not sure I realized how good Acosta was in his 39 2/3-inning stint with the Mets last year. He walked too many guys, but he struck out more than a batter an inning and posted a 134 ERA+. He was also pretty decent in Triple-A. You have to figure someone will scoop him up if he is put on waivers.
Pat Misch (2:1): Misch could wind up victim of a numbers crunch, unfortunate since he’s been nothing but decent in every role the Mets have asked him to fill in the past two seasons. The lefty control artist isn’t going to blow the ball by anybody, but his versatility and relative health could help him crack the roster if Collins decides he needs a spot-starter type. Might not be a bad idea if Young and Capuano are in the back of the rotation.
Mike O’Connor (5:1): I’m really rooting for O’Connor to make the team, though he seems like something of a longshot. He’s the only player in camp who looks like he should be playing stickball with me and my friends instead of Major League Baseball with Jose Reyes. He has a cool delivery and it seems like it can get lefties out.
Blaine Boyer (7:1): The red-headed Boyer throws pretty hard and Collins has raved about his fastball. But Collins raves about lots of stuff, and Boyer allows too many baserunners. He has been decent in 4 1/3 Grapefruit League innings and hasn’t been downright terrible across his career, but he’s probably not a Plan A guy. Figure he goes to Buffalo and gets the call when one of the Major Leaguers gets lit up or shut down.
Taylor Tankersley (7:1): I may be reading this one all wrong, but the way I see it, Tankersley has only thrown 29 2/3 Major League innings since 2007 and few of them have been great. He’s still pretty young and pitched decently in Triple-A last year, plus by all accounts he’s a great guy who wants to start a band with our promos department, it just seems like it’ll be hard for him to beat out fellow lefties Byrdak and Misch and, to a lesser extent, O’Connor for a roster spot.
Boof Bonser (11:1): I’m not even certain Bonser belongs on this list because he has mostly been a starter in his career. His name is Boof Bonser, which is awesome, and he was the third guy traded with Francisco Liriano and Joe Nathan for A.J. Pierzynski. Maybe he makes the Mets as a long guy or if a starter gets hurt, but my bet is he declines his opt-out clause and joins the Mets’ Triple-A rotation. The Buffalo Bisons’ Boof Bonser? It’s too good to pass up. Boofalo!
Ryota Igarashi (11:1): Near the end of my stay in Port St. Lucie, Terry Collins said he hasn’t seen the same splitter from Igarashi in the United States that he did in Japan and wondered if it had something to do with the slightly larger ball. That seemed worth following up on, but I didn’t see Igarashi and his interpreter before I left. Still throws gas, so there’s some chance he figures something out and helps the Mets before his contract is up.
Oliver Perez (23:1).
The field (23:1): This is for all the guys on loan from Tabasco of the Mexican League and the Les Walronds and Dale Thayers of the world. Sometimes some guy shows up, turns heads, and gets a locker at Citi Field.
Eric Simon at Amazin’ Avenue pokes holes in a report I missed entirely that apparently blew up the Internet yesterday. It’s a good write-up of some silly muckracking. Here’s the thing though: Given the nature of Santana’s injury and surgery, it is entirely possible he doesn’t pitch this year.
The other thing is that the original story presents more evidence that there are nebulous, anonymous executives walking around Mets camp willing to say whatever journalists need for their stories. Is this something Sandy Alderson put in place? Are anonymous sources the new market efficiency?
58% of TedQuarters readers found the Cole of Duty photo suitably embarrassing, so the Embarrassing photos of Cole Hamels archive has been updated.
I’m very tired. Here’s something:
Good question. You mean where is it right now, or where is it available from? I’ve been in the mood for a good grilled cheese since Ted Burke sent me that text from Bradenton. But to me the best grilled cheeses come from my kitchen, and I like ’em old-school, the way my dad used to make them when I’d come home for lunch in elementary school: American cheese on white bread, grilled golden brown on a ton of butter. If you want to throw bacon on there, I mean, obviously that’s cool, but it’s not even necessary.
I’m open to eateries with good grilled cheeses, though. Anyone know of any?
My take: He’s still Luis Castillo. I don’t want to sound mean to be fatalistic about this, but it’s the same dude who has been downright brutal for three years. I get that he’s in good shape and he lost weight and maybe that’s worth something, but how much? Is he suddenly going to be a rangy fielder for the first time since 2007? Is he, at 35, likely to do anything more than tread water?
I’m guessing no. And even if he is a better fielder than Daniel Murphy, Brad Emaus and Justin Turner, I find it hard to believe he’s so much better that it will mitigate the difference in offense. I mean, hell — even if Murphy’s downright terrible there and you take him out of the competition, Emaus and Turner have both played full seasons at second in the Minors. Turner has played shortstop! You’re telling me neither of these guys can provide the Mets more than Castillo can at this point? I’m sorry, I find that hard to believe. And no three Grapefruit League games are going to change my mind.
Actually, the more I think about it, the more I wonder what it is I’m missing about Turner. Look at his stats: He has been good in every Minor League stop. Old for most levels, yes, but always solid on-base percentages with some pop. In fact, using the Minor League Equivalency calculator, Turner’s 2010 comes out much better than Emaus’, since Emaus’ numbers were inflated by the Pacific Coast League. Turner’s line in Buffalo translates to .280/.329/.420, while Emaus’ Las Vegas rates equate to .229/.311/.369.
So much. I know it’s bad form to complain about work stuff in these trying economic times, and really, I’m in no position to whine about any aspect of a job that occasionally pays me to watch baseball games. But pants are total b.s.
Seriously, I have to wear pants to edit a website? Really? And no jeans; that’s the rule. Every so often we’re allowed to wear jeans because it’s snowing or it’s Christmas Eve or a swarm of locusts has descended upon Manhattan, and even though that day should be massively inconvenient, it’s not so bad because I’m so much more comfortable. Confident too. I look better in jeans.
It was the Media Noche. A couple people asked me about my Spring Training sandwich picks so let Nate’s Tweet stand in for all of them. The Port St. Lucie sandwich scene is bleak. It is almost entirely fast food and chain restaurants. I tried the Angus Three Cheese and Bacon sandwich at Arby’s. It’s gross, I’m sorry to say. I ate a surprisingly decent buffalo chicken sandwich at Ruby Tuesday.
I did have a pretty delicious Jamaican beef patty at a place called Jerk City out on U.S. 1. I would consider a beef patty a sandwich, because I use a very liberal definition of the term “sandwich.” I understand that others would not call this a sandwich.
I’m going back to Florida for the last couple of Spring Training games and then the opening series in Miami. I understand I will have way more exciting culinary options in Miami than I did in Port St. Lucie. I look forward to it.
Rich checks in from Port St. Lucie:
Is there a connection in the game today to Frank Shellenback? Yes there is! The most notable connection is Phil Regan, who had a fairly good spitball. Regan went on to become a manager, coach and pitching coach, including coaching on the 2000 U.S. Olympic baseball team, with pitchers Ryan Franklin, Roy Oswalt, Bobby Seay and Ben Sheets*.
* Tin foil hat time, folks.
In many ways we can point the rise and fall of the spitball to one person: Frank Shellenback, the Sinister Minister of the Spitball.
– Mat Kovach, The Hardball Times.
A good read from The Hardball Times about the history of the Major Leagues’ most reviled pitch. Kovach credits the resurgence of the spitball to Frank Shellenback, and — though he doesn’t say it outright — seems to suggest that as Shellenback’s legacy wanes, so does the spitball.
I wonder if spitballs, vaseline balls, snotballs, scuffed balls and doctored balls of all varieties are quickly becoming a thing of the past thanks to modern technology. It seems like with the number of HD cameras in stadiums now, a pitcher would need to be David Blaine to get away with it with any regularity. Of course, I guess some subtle sandpaper in the glove could still go unnoticed.
Via HardballTalk. This is a huge pet peeve of mine. We are Mets fans. But we are not the Mets.
Tedquarters 