Category Archives: Baseball

Chris Young stuff

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Depending on what report you read, the Mets are either interested in former Padres pitcher Chris Young or taking him out to a celebratory dinner while the ink dries on his contract, presumably also providing him a jolly ribbing, in the tradition of rival Ivy League alumni.

In terms of height and education, the 6-foot-10 Princeton grad is in the upper echelon of Major League pitchers, and, for that matter, humans.

In terms of likely ability to impact a Major League club in 2011, Young’s stature is not nearly so impressive.

Though Young was a very good pitcher when he was last fully healthy, he has not been fully healthy since 2007. Labrum surgery ended his 2009 campaign in June, and he missed most of the 2010 season with a strain in the same shoulder. He did return in September to pitch well in three short starts, but even then his average fastball velocity hovered somewhere in the R.A. Dickey territory, and he wasn’t throwing knuckleballs.

So there are quite a few red flags for Young.

But all that said, if Young weren’t coming off two straight years with shoulder problems and hadn’t suffered a massive decline in velocity, the Mets probably wouldn’t be pursuing him. Remember that the team is strapped for cash and that Javier Vazquez — himself of the declining velocity, and of the 80 ERA+ in 2010 — just got $7 million from the Marlins.

We don’t know the cost of Young’s contract yet, or if there will even be one, but assuming it is small, his signing is exactly the type the Mets must make this offseason. He represents a very low-risk pickup with a potentially high reward, however unlikely. With a couple more like him and a good deal of luck, perhaps they can cobble together a decent pitching staff on a discount.

And I have to hope that this front office — more than the last one — does its due diligence on players before and after inking them to deals. It may be that the Mets executives or their scouts know something about Young or saw something in his late-season starts that makes his recovery more likely than it seems on paper.

Javier Vazquez stuff

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With a 2010 salary of $11.5 million, Javier Vazquez qualified as a major disappointment this last season with the Yankees. However, the free agent didn’t have to wait too long to find a new home, as the 34-year-old righty starting pitcher has signed a one-year contract with the Marlins.

The contract will be worth $7 million, and comes with a full no-trade clause. It also has a built-in clause that the Marlins can’t offer Vazquez arbitration after the year, which will help to make him more desirable next winter. Vazquez is signing with Florida in large part so he can re-establish some of the value he lost with New York.

– Jeff Sullivan, SBNation.com.

OK, a couple of interesting things here. For one, I was hoping the Mets might make a run at Vazquez. Just based on the back of his baseball card alone he looks like a solid candidate to bounce back — last season was his first real clunker in years, plus he’s perpetually healthy. Also, pitching in the National League East — and in a pitcher’s park — would likely help him.

As Eric Simon pointed out, though, Vazquez’s average fastball velocity took a pretty steep hit last season, falling from 91.1 MPH in 2009 to 88.7. That’s a bit unnerving.

If Vazquez returns to anywhere near his 2009 form — or even his less-spectacular 2008 form — he should be worth way beyond the $7 million the Marlins will pay him. Pitchers that can reliably throw over 200 decent innings do not grow on trees.

But that he cost so much should be at least marginally interesting to Mets fans, since starting pitching seems like the team’s most obvious place for an upgrade this offseason. The innings-eater types — Vazquez, Jon Garland, Ted Lilly, Jake Westbrook, Hiroki Kuroda — have been flying off the shelves this offseason, and not exactly at discount prices.

If the reports about the Mets’ very-limited payroll flexibility are true, then it seems entirely possible they’ll be priced out of the mid-level starting pitcher market and enter 2011 without another reliable starter on the staff. By my count, the only non-Cliff Lee free agent starters who have proven capable of racking up lots of innings over the past few years are Carl Pavano, Kevin Millwood, Dave Bush and Braden Looper.

None of those options is particularly inspiring, for a variety of reasons. (Of course, for the same reasons, none besides Pavano seems likely to command that much money.) Perhaps one slips through the cracks and is available at a big discount later in the winter, but at this point, none seems like a big enough upgrade over Pat Misch and Dillon Gee to be worth paying him nearly all of the Mets’ offseason resources.

Right now, it appears as if the Mets’ best option will be to pick up a couple of upside guys coming off injuries. Joe Janish put together a good list of candidates at Mets Today over the weekend. At first look, lefties Jeremy Bonderman and Chris Capuano seem like decent options, though obviously the cost and the Mets’ scouting assessments are paramount.

The other part of Vazquez’s contract that’s of interest to Mets fans — and all fans, really — is the no-arbitration clause. That was presumably included so that if Vazquez does bounce back and becomes a Type A free agent next offseason, whatever team signs him next will not be forced to surrender a first-round pick to the Marlins. Carlos Beltran’s contract includes the same clause.

It stands to reason that the clause is a byproduct of the league-wide emphasis on the draft, and if that type of contract becomes a trend it will ultimately benefit a big-market club like the Mets. Since the Mets are likely to be big spenders again in the not-too-distant future, they will stand to gain from being able to pursue free agents without risking first-round draft picks.

Talking Terry Collins with Matt Cerrone

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It was time to end the show so I didn’t get to say it, but I don’t entirely agree with Matt’s last point. Though I seriously doubt Luis Castillo or Ollie Perez has much to offer the Mets’ 2011 roster, I don’t see a good reason to cut them before Spring Training unless the team desperately needs the 40-man roster space (which seems unlikely).

Outside of pissing off fans, there’s no real risk involved — both players will be paid regardless of what happens — so even though the potential reward seems marginal at best, they might as well give Ollie and Castillo the chance to show that they’ve returned to form. And yeah, we’re all nearly certain that won’t happen, but as long as the team is willing to identify them as sunk cost and cut them when the time comes, I’m not sure it hurts anything to have them in camp.

Does it send the wrong message to the other players? Maybe, but only if Alderson and Collins don’t communicate that there are open competitions at second base and in the starting rotation and bullpen, and that contracts won’t factor into who wins the jobs.

If Alderson can trade them, of course, then good riddance. But, you know, good luck with that.

Good Mets prospects list

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Hat tip to Joe Budd at Amazin’ Avenue for pointing out this Mets’ Top 20 prospects list from poster Chris in Ga at MetsGeek.

It’s clearly a well-researched list and a good read for Mets fans like myself that might not be so familiar with some of the Mets’ younger prospects.

For prospects lists like this one, I’ve learned not to pick nits with specific designations — who’s No.3 and who’s No. 7 — because creating a list like this one requires a ton of educated guesswork and because there are so many factors that can affect a player’s development. Really, I like reading this stuff for the information more than the rankings.

But I do have one quibble with the methodology here, though: He ranks a bunch of pitchers who haven’t shown much in the Minors over Mark Cohoon, a lefty who, at 21, acquitted himself nicely in Double-A after a midseason jump from Savannah.

I recognize that Cohoon’s raw stuff is not as impressive as that of the pitchers who made the list, but since pitching prospects are so fickle, I would generally opt for results and durability at upper Minor League levels over high ceilings and projectability.

Kyle Allen and Eric Goeddel might have more impressive arms, but Cohoon is the one who rocked a 4:1 K:BB ratio while staying healthy enough to throw 161 1/3 innings across two levels in 2010. Maybe he has a lower ceiling, but I’d guess he has a much higher floor.

I’ll add that I’m biased toward Cohoon because I’ve spoken with him a couple of times and he seemed like an extremely bright guy who’s very dedicated to his craft. Granted, perhaps the same is true of all the dudes who made the list. Either way, it strikes me that it’s worth something.

Army of Jeters!

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As a member of the N.Y. media I’m contractually obligated to say something about Derek Jeter today, so I’ll start with this amazing Photoshop montage from the Daily News:


That’s partnered in the print edition with Mike Lupica’s column about, well, something. I guess it’s about how the Yankees don’t want to give Derek Jeter the money Derek Jeter wants but maybe Derek Jeter wants too much money, only stretched out to like 900 words and with a bunch of quotes from rival executives incredulous that the Yankees won’t overpay for a 36-year-old shortstop who can’t field anymore.

The Yankees are doing exactly what they should be doing.

Apparently, since Brian Cashman reportedly told Jeter and his agent to look around for a better deal and come back to him, Mike Francesa suggested the Mets need to sign Jeter to make a splash, or something silly like that. It’s almost too ridiculous to even merit a response, but here’s one anyway:

Signing Derek Jeter to make a splash is the opposite of what the Mets need to do. If Jeter has a three-year, $45 million deal on the table to play for the Yankees, it will require more than that to pry him away. The Mets, by all accounts, don’t have that type of money, and even if they did they shouldn’t spend it on Jeter.

Jeter, despite his defensive issues, is undoubtedly still a very good player. But according to just about everyone he’s not interested in switching positions anytime soon, and the Mets already have a very good player at shortstop. If the Mets had more than $15 million available with which to upgrade their team in 2011, they likely sign Orlando Hudson and an innings-eating starting pitcher, a pair that would likely combine to add more wins than Jeter.

And a multi-year deal would mean the Mets had Jeter on their hands for at least his age 38 and 39 seasons as well. For a lot of money.

It makes no sense.