Matt Cerrone brought up the Ike Davis-for-Prince Fielder debate that I touched on nearly a month ago, and now debate over whether the Mets should make that deal (should it even become available to them) is spreading through the blogosphere.
Here’s your answer: No.
That’s not because Davis is currently a better player than Fielder or because I believe Davis will certainly be a better player than Fielder soon. Fielder is one of the league’s best hitters, and the Mets should be thrilled if Davis ever puts up an offensive season as good as the one Fielder posted in a down year in 2010.
Davis can boast superior defense and a body that appears better suited to long-term success, which mitigates the difference between the two players at least a little. But Fielder now has four years’ worth of evidence to show he is a great offensive player and is still only 26, so he’s a reasonably safe bet to continue being one of the league’s better power hitters into the latter part of this decade. Davis, coming off one season of just below league-average production for a first baseman, offers no such assurance.
It comes down to money.
Fielder is entering his final year of arbitration, meaning any team that acquires him will likely work to sign him to a contract extension at market rate, like the Mets did when they got Johan Santana.
I have no idea what it will cost to extend Fielder’s contract, but it won’t be cheap. Ryan Howard will earn $25 million a season from 2012-16. Mark Teixeira will get $22.5 until 2016. Miguel Cabrera — $19 mil and change through 2015.
Even if Fielder doesn’t command quite as much as his fellow young, slugging first basemen, he’ll inevitably require a hefty chunk of the acquiring team’s payroll for the multiple years.
Davis, meanwhile, won’t even be eligible for arbitration until after the 2012 season. If he continues improving, the Mets could look to buy out his arbitration years — a deal that would still likely be favorable to the team and well, well below what it would require to extend Fielder. Keeping Davis instead of trading for and extending Fielder would probably save the Mets at least $10 million a season in payroll into the second half of the decade, money that could be allocated toward free-agent signings that could more than make up the difference between the two players.
Throw in that Davis is, as mentioned, a much better defensive player and quite likely to improve, since he came to Flushing in 2010 with only 42 plate appearances above Double-A ball, and trading him for Fielder doesn’t even seem like a topic worth debating.
The final sticking point is that there remains some reasonable chance that Fielder and Adrian Gonzalez hit the open market next winter. Since the Mets’ chances of contention in 2011 appear long anyway, it seems crazy to dispatch one of their most valuable cogs in a trade now when they may be able to find an upgrade for only money next offseason, dangling Davis as trade bait then or forcing his once-discussed move to right field.
But it’s completely baffling to me that A-Rod’s performance just last postseason didn’t seem to teach anyone anything about the nature of that stigma. Rodriguez now has a .927 career postseason OPS and a .958 career regular-season OPS.
