Sam Page analyzes a proposed Mets-Royals trade of a bunch of players with terrible contracts. I kind of doubt this happens but I’m pulling for it, both because it would be hilarious and because, as Sam points out, the Mets would come out “winners.”
Category Archives: Baseball
Andy Pettitte: Hall of Famer?
Basically, Pettitte has been 17 percent better than the average pitcher. He has 240 wins, with 18 more games in the postseason.
When you scroll down to his Hall of Fame statistics, Pettitte falls short in black ink (times leading the league in an important stat), gray ink (top 10 in important stats), Hall of Fame Monitor (a point-system for worthiness) and Hall of Fame Standards (where you rank relative to other Hall of Famers — basically average or below average).
To summarize, Pettitte falls short in every Hall of Fame metric.
Salfino does a nice job breaking down Pettitte’s Hall of Fame candidacy. I assume Pettitte gets in because of the rings and the Yankees and everything else, though it’s unclear he deserves the merit. He’s certainly better than Jack Morris, but just being better than some guy who’s in the Hall of Fame should not make you a Hall of Famer.
But Salfino neglects to examine what I think is the most interesting thing about Pettitte’s candidacy: He admitted HGH use.
Media and fans seem to buy Pettitte’s claim that he was just using HGH to recover from surgery in 2002 and never again after that. And hey, I have no reason to doubt Pettitte either.
But if we’re going to take his excuse on faith and look past Pettitte’s indiscretion, why not do the same with A-Rod? Is “recovering from surgery” more palatable than “young and stupid”?
Every home run A-Rod hits, people throw around terms like “tainted” and “disgraceful” and everything else. Many seem to insist A-Rod doesn’t belong in the Hall of Fame because he cheated, and yet no one even mentions it when discussing Pettitte’s candidacy.
Just sayin’s all.
UPDATE: Tom Boorstein points out that Jack Morris is not actually in the Hall of Fame, which is good because he doesn’t really deserve to be.
Confident that the media will defend them from comparisons to totalitarian regimes, Yankees now just kind of going for it
Cool photo from the AP wire
Not what I went looking for, but stumbled onto this, from the College World Series in Omaha last month.
Taking a deep breath
Get a hold of yourselves. Deep breath. The Mets will hit again. These Mets. I know that’s hard to believe, given the stinking, putrid way they’re approaching marginal opposing pitchers.
But the Mets’ offense is not impotent. The Mets’ offense will rise again. This happens to a lot of teams, every once in a while.
To convince myself of that, I plugged each Mets regular’s rest-of-season ZiPS projecting into David Pinto’s handy lineup analysis tool. Pure nerdery, I know. Ike Davis didn’t have a projection, so I used his current season line.
With the current regulars batting in the current order, the Mets should score — according to the tool — 4.69 runs a game. That’d be good for fourth in the National League as it currently stands. With Josh Thole subbed in for Rod Barajas, it jumps to 4.78.
That’s a lot, and it’s a lot more than the 1.88 runs per game they’ve scored since the All-Star Break or the 2.78 they’ve mustered in the month of July. I have no idea what’s happening, but I am certain that the Mets have too many good hitters for it to happen for much longer.
They took a step toward upgrading their pitching last night by finally cutting bait on Fernando Nieve. Now they risk losing him on waivers — the horror — but marginally improve their bullpen with Manny Acosta. At the least, if Jerry Manuel is confident enough in Acosta to pitch him more than once a week, it should mean more frequent rest for Bobby Parnell and Pedro Feliciano.
Talk looms that the Mets will try to upgrade their rotation via trade, but by all accounts they are not willing to give up the necessary prospects to give up a front-line starter like Roy Oswalt and Dan Haren. That’s smart; mortgaging too much of the future in a season when they’re on the fringes of the playoff race reeks of 2004.
But then the second tier of supposedly available starting pitchers — Ted Lilly, Jake Westbrook and the like — don’t appear to be a massive upgrade over the fellows the team already has in house. Certainly if one is available on a straight salary dump, the Mets should jump on it — all teams need pitching depth.
And every time it looks like the wheels are coming off Hisanori Takahashi’s wagon, it turns out he’s just caulking the thing to cross some raging rapids, or something. Takahashi has not been great, but he hasn’t been much worse than Jake Westbrook, either. Westbrook could improve the team by bumping Takahashi into a bullpen role, but the upgrade is probably not worth a prospect of even minor repute.
Remember that as good as Takahashi was as a reliever, it was across a reasonably small sample during a time most of the league had never seen him. I don’t think it’s safe to just plug him back into that role and assume he’ll be as good as he was in April and May.
A guy who might help the team without costing anything is a dude I mentioned yesterday, Triple-A righty Dillon Gee. Gee has a deceptively high 4.52 ERA at Buffalo, but has shown excellent control and strikes out nearly a batter an inning. Gee is prone to the gopherball — a problem that would be at least somewhat alleviated by pitching in Citi Field — and has likely been victimized by a defense that often features Mike Jacobs and Val Pascucci on the field at the same time.
Promoting Gee into a bullpen job could serve a dual purpose: Adding to the big-league club a pitcher who can reliably get the ball over the plate and allowing the Mets to judge if and how Gee’s not overpowering but apparently effective stuff looks against Major League competition. If he succeeds, Gee could slot into the rotation if and when Takahashi proves ineffective for more than a 1-2 start stretch.
Gee is not on the Mets’ 40-man roster, but I believe the rule states that when a player without options (like Nieve) is put through waivers, he is removed from the 40-man. Pretty sure that’s the case, but either way, Eddie Kunz and Omir Santos are currently on the 40-man as well, so there’s probably some room for flexibility.
Of course, there’s the issue of space on the 25-man roster. Any number of current relievers might prove ineffective in short order, but obviously the odd man out should be the bearded rich guy with the WHIP around 2. But then that’s apparently not going to happen. Nevermind.
Bruce Chen sighting
Previewing Yanks-Royals with Jeff Zimmerman of RoyalsReview.com.
Exit the Frenchman?
Jeff Francoeur’s days in a Mets uniform could be numbered.
According to an industry source, the team is trying to trade the right fielder, and could have a deal in place by the time the Mets finish their series in Los Angeles this weekend.
Francoeur would welcome a trade, according to a person friendly with the right fielder, if it gave him a chance to play every day.
Hey, that’d be great. Who wouldn’t like to see the Mets and Frenchy end their relationship amicably? Francoeur goes someplace to show off his durability and arm, the Mets part ways with a player rendered extraneous by superior outfielders.
When the Mets start their regulars these days, their bench includes two catchers, a lefty pinch-hitter who can’t really play the field, a right-handed “hitter” who can only play right field and Alex Cora. It doesn’t allow for a whole lot of maneuvering.
Parting ways with Francoeur would allow the team a little flexibility to install a more versatile righty bat on the bench, which might be valuable enough to the team to mitigate all the beat-writer heartbreak.
The question is, what team is going to give Frenchy the opportunity to play every day? He was pretty much the worst starting right fielder in baseball this season, so which club feels it can upgrade with Francoeur in its lineup?
No clue. But if the Mets can get something of even marginal value back from that team for a corner outfielder with a .673 OPS, then, well, do it.
Fernando Nieve is out of options, the Mets aren’t
I’m not gonna lie: I was asleep when Fernando Nieve blew the game last night. Put me down for the ol’ WW — wasn’t watching.
I can think of a few reasons Nieve shouldn’t have even been in the game, but I’m going to ignore the one I usually touch on, about how managers should probably use their best relievers in close games rather than manage to a silly stat. I mean, that’s baseball.
Instead, I will argue that Nieve shouldn’t have been in the game because he shouldn’t even be on the Major League team, or, really, any Major League team. Nieve has a 6.00 ERA. He walks too many batters and allows too many home runs. After pitching in 28 games in April and May, Nieve has only been used in 12 games in June and July.
Now maybe the Mets love Nieve’s stuff and really think he’s a better fit for the Major League bullpen than anyone else in their system. But the way Jerry Manuel is using him — or not using him — seems to imply that the Mets are still hanging onto Nieve out of some combination of the vague inertia that often dominates their roster management and the fear that they’ll lose Nieve, who’s out of options, if they attempt to send him to the Minors.
And that’s not really a good reason to keep a guy with a 6.00 ERA in your bullpen if you’re trying to win a pennant this season. If the Mets were rebuilding and thought Nieve was a legit part of their future, sure. But not if they’re actually trying to win.
Especially — especially! — considering that they’re presumably only carrying Oliver Perez in their bullpen because they’re unwilling to swallow sunk costs and set him free, or, alternately, convince him to toil on the Kei Igawa Circuit of world’s richest Triple-A pitchers.
Two of the Mets’ Triple-A starters, Dillon Gee and Pat Misch, would likely upgrade their Major League bullpen right now. Lefty reliever (and former Nat) Mike O’Connor might too.
And another guy — a righty I’ve never before heard of named Manuel Alvarez — has posted a 1.36 ERA with an awesome 7:1 K:BB ratio in 53 innings across three levels this season. I don’t know anything about the guy, there’s not much in his history that indicates he’s this good and he only has 4 1/3 innings above Double-A, but, well, I’m not certain Nieve could dominate Double-A hitters the way Alvarez did. So there’s that, too.
If Manuel and Omar Minaya were so desperate to win earlier this season that they pushed their top starting-pitching prospect into Major League mopup duty, it’s absurd that they should now be carrying multiple players who are not the best fit to help the team win. And you could argue it goes well beyond Perez and Nieve.
The Mets are losing a lot of games, and that sucks. And they’re not necessarily losing games because they’re carrying Perez and Nieve. But those pitchers’ presence on the team speaks to a larger issue in roster optimization that has persisted throughout Minaya’s tenure in Flushing, one that absolutely does contribute to the losing.
Good readin’
David Wright, dressed in his Mets uniform, was weaving his way quickly, and somewhat nervously, through the crowd, adjusting his cap along the way. Some of the fans pointed and told companions who it was. One woman gasped, surprised at the sight of a real player, a star no less, walking by her. Most of the fans just stared, trying to make sense of a player seemingly on his way to buy a hot dog so close to game time.
But minutes later, Wright was the one who was somewhat speechless, honored to be in the presence of one of the greatest players in baseball history, Willie Mays. The get-together before a game between the Giants and the Mets reinforced a growing relationship between the two men, who are separated by background and age (Mays is 79, Wright is 27), but not in their admiration for each other.
– David Waldstein, New York Times.
Good read from Waldstein on Wright’s burgeoning friendship with Willie Mays.
Adam Rubin on Ollie’s glorious return
Rubin hammers it home. Strong points throughout. For what it’s worth, Perez has been pretty decent against lefties across his career and even in small samples the last couple years, though he has (shocker) walked a ton of them this season.