Category Archives: Baseball
In case you haven’t concluded yet that the Strasburg thing is dumb
There are so many reasons why shutting down Strasburg is a mistake. Having made the decision to limit his innings before the season, the Nationals’ refusal to skip the occasional start early in the year so that Strasburg would be fresh for October is mind-boggling. (The only explanation is that they didn’t think they’d actually be in contention this year. In which case, may we suggest they read Grantland more often?)
The decision to limit Strasburg’s innings instead of his pitches suggests a team that has been suckered by the Verducci Effect, named for the Sports Illustrated writer Tom Verducci, who posited years ago that young pitchers who exceed their previous career high in innings by more than 30 are likely to get hurt. It’s a pretty theory, but it has been debunked by analysts many times over.
– Rany Jazayerli, Grantland.com.
A great and thorough tear-down of the Nats’ decision to shut down Stephen Strasburg. Run don’t walk.
So here’s something
Stumbled onto this while working on something else today. I’m pretty sure this came up earlier this season but I didn’t realize it had borne out over time: The Mets seem to have faced an atypically high percentage of lefty pitchers this season, likely in part due to the atypically high percentage of lefty hitters in their lineup. Check this out:
The Mets’ only other marked deviation from league average here came in 2010 when, if you’ll recall, they spent portions of the season pretty heavily right-handed, during Peak Rod Barajas.
I suppose this shouldn’t be all that surprising, given what you’ve seen from the Mets this year. It also probably helps to explain why so many of the Mets having good years by their standards — David Wright, Ruben Tejada, Scott Hairston and Ronny Cedeno — hit right-handed and so many of the Mets having bad years by their standards — Ike Davis, Josh Thole and Lucas Duda — hit left-handed. That’s hardly a rule, of course, as Mike Baxter’s hitting better than anyone could have expected, and Jason Bay.
Anyway, the point I was setting out to make was that Baxter and Hairston could combine for a pretty damn good outfielder in the Mets’ 2013 plans. I don’t know if Hairston has priced himself out of the Mets’ plans with his mashing this season and Baxter’s big-league success has come in a reasonably small sample. But Hairston’s got a career .280/.330/.505 line against lefties and Baxter’s at .271/.363/.431 against righties. Plug that pair into an outfield corner and manage it effectively and you should be able to hope for better than league-average production from the spot, plus solid defense. Also, both can play center field in a pinch and both have proven useful in pinch-hitting situations, for whatever that’s worth.
The Mets will need to make the outfield their top offseason priority since they’ve got no one in their system now who appears apt to man an everyday spot next year. But since it seems unlikely they’ll be able to find three outfield regulars in free agency and via trade, a Hairston/Baxter platoon could more than adequately shore up one of the spots. Not exactly breaking news, I realize.
Mike Francesa passes out
I actually find this pretty endearing. He looks so shocked and lost when he wakes up:
Maybe the city of Buffalo needed to do better by the Mets
The most important point as far as I’m concerned is that Bisons attendance has been falling fairly steadily, since 1991. That’s over two decades of straight slipping. Some years, the declines are larger than others, but the declines are real and consistent.
You know what else has been declining in the last twenty one years? The Buffalo population, which is less than half of its 1950s peak. To be fair, the population of the other major Western New York cities like Syracuse and Rochester has been falling as well. Buffalo is a relatively poor city with a median household income of $30,043 as of the last census, well below the New York State median of $55,603. Perhaps more damning, 30% of Buffalo lived below the poverty level.
– Toby Hyde, MetsMinorLeagueBlog.com.
With the Mets’ Triple-A affiliation with Las Vegas looking — for better and worse — all but inevitable, Toby investigates and debunks claims that the Major League team is largely responsible for the Bisons’ declining attendance figures. It’s worth a read.
I don’t know enough about player-development contracts or the specific situation in Buffalo to say anything for certain, but this latest turn seems more like misfortune than mismanagement from the Mets’ end. Obviously the Blue Jays make a hell of a lot of sense for the Bisons and vice versa, and it looks like the Mets will wind up the last man standing when the music stops in Triple-A musical chairs — forcing them to skulk down into the chair that no one really wants to sit in because it’s such an awful chair for pitching from.
About that: The Mets have, for the first time in a long time, a bunch of young pitchers at the high levels of their system. If Dillon Gee and Johan Santana are healthy come April — far from a guarantee, mind you — then the group of Zack Wheeler, Collin McHugh, Jeurys Familia and Jenrry Mejia should all be targeting the Triple-A rotation out of Spring Training (barring a Major League bullpen assignment).
They should be targeting that, but if the Mets’ Triple-A home is in Las Vegas, they might not wind up there. Check this out: That environment is so unfavorable to pitchers that it seems teams often fill it up with Quad-A types and leave the prospects at Double-A. The Blue Jays’ two youngest starters this year, 22-year-old Henderson Alvarez and 21-year-old Drew Hutchison, both skipped over Triple-A en route to the pros. And since the Blue Jays started their affiliation with Las Vegas in 2009, they haven’t let many of their pitching prospects spend much time there — pretty much just Brett Cecil. Kyle Drabek spent half a year there, but his is hardly a success story.
Before the Blue Jays, the Dodgers’ Triple-A team was in Vegas. To find many success stories from Las Vegas’ pitching ranks, you have to go back to 2006, when Chad Billingsley, Joel Hanrahan and Hong-Chih Kuo all spent time in the 51s’ rotation. Clayton Kershaw skipped Triple-A when he jumped to the pros in 2008. Edwin Jackson also skipped a stop in Vegas before his big-league debut in 2003, but he started the 2004 season there, got torched, got torched there again in 2005 and then got traded before he 2006 season.
Of course, that’s hardly to say that time in Las Vegas precludes a pitcher from Major League success — the example of Billingsley suggests otherwise, plus pitching prospects succeed so infrequently that it’s impossible to expect anyone from the Triple-A ranks at any city to make an impact in the big leagues. It does appear, though, that the Blue Jays were careful about which pitchers they used in Las Vegas and when. That could just be the organization’s philosophy or a reflection of the timing of Alvarez’s and Hutchison’s Major League arrival, but there’s no doubt that Vegas’ combination of thin air and hard surface make for a brutal pitching environment that the Mets, should the affiliation happen as expected, will need to monitor.
It’s obviously not ideal. Unless, of course, you’re planning a road trip to see the Mets’ Triple-A team in 2013 and you love shiny things and home runs. Then you’re all set, buddy.
Buy the ticket, take the ride…and if it occasionally gets a little heavier than what you had in mind, well…maybe chalk it off to forced conscious expansion: Tune in, freak out, get beaten.
Link
Olerud involved in the most civil suit
“You guys saw the trees,” Olerud said at the board hearing. “They’re not attractive trees. I would say they’re the kind of tree that only an arborist would love. …
“I’m just making the point that if you’re willing to cut down your own trees to maintain your view and yet you aren’t willing to offer that to your neighbor, how is that being a good neighbor?
“The Bible says, ‘Love the Lord your God with all your heart, soul and strength, and your neighbor as yourself.’ That’s Jesus’ commandment.”
To which Baker replied, “I truly believe you’re trying to be a good neighbor. That’s what’s so puzzling about this, that you think it’s being a good neighbor to cut down a tree that’s important to me that’s over 50 years old, and just leave a hole there.”
Olerud said he would be willing to buy a replacement tree that wouldn’t block his view.
That’s more than I usually like to excerpt, so please, click through and read the whole thing. You won’t be sorry. It’s perfect.
Lenny Dykstra is in jail for grand theft auto. Jose Canseco is blogging about steroids for Steroid.com. John Olerud is engaged in a very polite dispute (with vague existentialist overtones) over an unattractive neighborhood tree.
“I am smart, capable, and most importantly, I am free in all the ways you are not.”
Mike Trout is so awesome
As Aaron Gleeman notes at HardballTalk, Mike Trout reached 10 WAR on the season yesterday, marking the first time that has happened since Barry Bonds hung ’em up.
Here is the complete list of players who have reached 10 bbWAR in a single season:
Babe Ruth
Rogers Hornsby
Carl Yastrzemski
Barry Bonds
Lou Gehrig
Cal Ripken
Honus Wagner
Ty Cobb
Mickey Mantle
Willie Mays
Joe Morgan
Stan Musial
Ted Williams
Robin Yount
Lou Boudreau
Jimmie Foxx
Eddie Collins
Alex Rodriguez
Sammy Sosa
Mike Trout
Several of them did it multiple times, but that’s the entire list of guys who have done it once. If you’re playing at home, every one of them but Bonds, Sosa and A-Rod is in the Hall of Fame, and if Bonds and A-Rod don’t get into the Hall of Fame then we need some new barometer for historic greatness in baseball.
Before Trout, the youngest player to reach 10 WAR in a single season was Ted Williams, who did it at 22 in 1941, then again at 23 in 1942, then missed three seasons while serving in the Air Force during World War II only to return in 1946 and do it again. Obviously every single part of that is remarkable.
Mike Trout is 20. Mike Trout is 20. Mike Trout is 20. Mike Trout is 20. Mike Trout is 20. Can’t come up with a way to make that sentence look unimpressive.
The truth is sillier than fiction
Jose Canseco is blogging about how great steroids are for Steroid.com.
Via Repoz.

