Do you deserve that foul ball?

At Deadspin, Tom Scocca puts together a handy flow chart to determine whether fans who catch foul balls should keep those foul balls. It’s pretty much spot-on.

A Ramon Castro foul ball ricocheted off the second deck and right into my dad’s nachos during my family’s first game at Citi Field in 2009. There were no kids in the immediate vicinity, so we kept the ball. It’s in my old bedroom at my parents’ house now with a small nacho-cheese stain still visible. A few nachos were lost upon impact, but most of them were salvageable and subsequently consumed.

Can you throw harder than a 49-year-old?

The Class A affiliate of the Minnesota Twins is running a promotion in which fans can win a free ticket to a future game if they can top Moyer’s 78 miles-an-hour on the radar gun. On the first day of the promotion last week, about 85 fans tried. None succeeded.

Mike Dodd, USA Today.

Aaron Gleeman brought this up last week, which prompted some pretty funny Twitter exchanges and then a conversation on the podcast: What percentage of adult males between 20 and 60 can throw 80 miles per hour or above? Because, as Gleeman noted, lots of people react to news of Moyer getting Major League hitters out with 78 mph gas with comments like, “Hell, I can throw that hard.” But truth is you probably can’t.

I’ve been playing baseball in Brooklyn for almost six years now. In that time there’s been turnover in our group, plus some fill-in players. So I’ve probably played with upwards of 100 people in that time, many of whom played in college. At a recent bar conversation with several of the longest-tenured players, we could only name four or five who might throw 80 on one throw. We confirmed, via text message during the conversation, that one guy we played with one time was throwing in the mid-to-high 80s, but a) his pitches were demonstrably faster than everyone else’s and b) the same text message conversation revealed that the guy, a college pitcher, is now slated for labrum surgery.

My friend Bill threw in the high 80s in high school. I haven’t seen him throw in years and he may jump in the comments and say otherwise, but I suspect he could still throw at least as hard as Moyer today.

And that’s it. One friend from high school whom I suspect can, a couple guys from the very self-selecting group of baseball dudes that might, and one dude we played with one time who definitely could but now needs shoulder surgery. Throwing even as fast as Jamie Moyer is a very, very rare ability, which is why I guessed only 1 in 500 adult males can do it on the podcast and in the Twitter conversation with Gleeman.

Mets finally sign Fred Lewis

Longtime readers of this site may remember that it advocated the Mets’ acquisition of outfielder before both the 2010 and 2011 seasons. Well it seems like someone in the team’s front office is finally combing the TedQuarters archives for ideas (or, way more likely, combing the waiver wires for outfielders), as the Mets signed Lewis to a Minor League deal yesterday.

With Jason Bay and Andres Torres out, the Mets are in something of a pinch for outfielders. They’ve got Lucas Duda, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Scott Hairston and Mike Baxter in the mix now and Terry Collins has said he’s willing to use converted infielder Jordany Valdespin in the outfield as well. Presumably if Torres returns as expected on Sunday, Valdespin will return to Triple-A or be used exclusively as a backup middle infielder, with Nieuwenhuis starting in left field and Hairston and Baxter serving as the team’s fourth and fifth outfielders.

But Lewis is 31 and was a useful Major Leaguer as recently as 2010. He can hit a bit, especially against righties, play good defense in the corners and fill in at center in a pinch. Don’t be surprised if he torches the ball in Triple-A and winds up with the big-league club whenever the Mets next need an outfielder. He’s not on the 40-man roster, so it would require some shuffling, but that’s down the road.

The Mets also signed Brad Emaus, which drew more headlines because he was their Opening Day second baseman last year as a Rule 5 draft pick and LOLMets. With Valdespin and Zach Lutz on the Major League team, the Triple-A Bisons have been stretched thin in the infield, so Emaus helps there. But his 14-game audition in 2011 shouldn’t be taken to mean he’ll never contribute anything at the big-league level. He’s done his Triple-A mashing in hitters’ heavens in Las Vegas and Colorado Springs, but if he can hack it at Buffalo, maybe he’ll have a future as a Major League reserve infielder.

Things happen

Two great points contained in one Hardball Talk post. First, the excerpt from Buster Olney:

The explosion of social media has fueled the desire to identify incompetence, to illuminate failure, to expose the cheaters. Within seconds that news broke that Michael Pineda will miss the rest of the year with a labrum tear, Twitter was flooded with theories — that the New York Yankees blew it, that the Seattle Mariners knew that Pineda was hurt, that there were idiots and schemers … The Mariners didn’t cheat, the Yankees weren’t idiots. It just didn’t work out.

Second, the perspective from Craig Calcaterra:

When bad things happen we often look for someone to blame. It makes it much easier to deal with bad news if we believe that it is the result of malfeasance. The scariest part of this world, however, is that the vast majority of bad things that happen … just happen.  Often for no reason at all other than bad random chance.

Yeah, that’s pretty much it. Brutal luck for the Yankees and Pineda.

All systems bro

How many times has a shortstop thrown the ball away with Kirk Nieuwenhuis sliding into second base on a potential double play? In my head it’s three times. Is that right? Does anyone have a better memory than mine?

It definitely happened last night. Mark Buehrle hit Nieuwenhuis in his jersey, putting him on base for the only time in the game. With one out and Daniel Murphy hitting, Nieuwenhuis actually broke back toward the first-base bag as Buehrle came home, fearing a pickoff. But after Murphy bounced one to the right side, Nieuwenhuis still wound up bearing down on Reyes as he attempted the double-play turn.

Reyes might have misfired with anyone (or no one) sliding in, and Murphy might very well have been safe regardless. And even if it has happened three times, it’s not nearly enough to call it more than a series of coincidences. But it’s the type of thing we like to credit to Nieuwenhuis’ football build and mentality, which are part of what make him a fun player to watch when he’s going well — even if most players are pretty fun to watch when they’re going well.

In any case, whether due to Nieuwenhuis’ balls-out bro-dom or just good luck, the fielder’s choice wound up making a big difference in the game last night. It provided an at-bat for David Wright with Murphy on first. Buehrle left an 0-2 pitch out over the plate and Wright put it on the Party Deck to give the Mets a 2-1 lead that they’d never relinquish.

It was a pretty good symbolic sequence of things going right for the Mets: new-Met Nieuwenhuis gets on, new-Marlin Reyes throws a ball away to possibly keep the inning alive, and Wright hits a home run that would have been a long out last year (and it likely would have been — watch the replay: Emilio Bonifacio had time to slow up for the wall then try to jump for it). And then for added emphasis Lucas Duda smacked a single.

Oh, and R.A. Dickey threw seven strong innings despite the chill.

 

What is Run Support Average and why is Johan Santana’s so high/so low?

Was at the game last night and by the end we were talking about how Johan hasn’t had a single run scored for him while on the hill this year. So, I’m looking up through some stats this morning for run support and, according to ESPN, not only is he NOT the least run-supported pitcher in the bigs, he’s not even the least run-supported Santana—which goes to Ervin.

Am I just misreading this stat? How people be getting even less run support than the guy who has literally none?

– Bill, via email.

From the looks of it, ESPN’s “Run Support Average” is an oddly calculated stat. It appears to be:

Total runs scored by team in games started by pitcher / (Innings pitched by pitcher/9)

In other words, though the Mets have not yet scored a run with Santana on the mound, they’ve scored six total in the four games he has started. He has pitched 18 total innings in those four starts, or two full games’ worth of work.

So I guess the stat means to say that if Santana’s Run Support Average is 3.00, the Mets have provided him three runs per nine innings. Only it doesn’t seem to make much sense, since the Mets have scored those runs in (in Santana’s case) twice as many innings as he has actually pitched and, by coincidence, none of the ones in which he was actually pitching. Maybe there’s a logical explanation for calculating it that way — I’m hardly a math guy and my brain’s on short rest.

In any case, it’s a silly thing to worry about. Santana’s lack of run support is as well-documented as it is unlikely to continue. It is unfortunate for him that this season he has matched up with Tommy Hanson, Stephen Strasburg and Josh Johnson pitching well in the games he pitched well. Though it seems the “aces match up with aces” thing is mostly overblown, they do necessarily square off at the beginning of the year and, it seems like, often a few times in the first weeks when they’re on similar schedules.

But then Santana was near the bottom of the league in Run Support Average in both 2009 and 2010, so maybe this is a real thing. Maybe there’s something about hitting with Johan Santana pitching that makes hitters stop producing runs in those games. Maybe they get too tight or too loose or this lack-of-run-support problem is in their heads.

Or maybe this is something we think is a thing that turns out not to be a thing. We’re dealing with 58 total games here for Santana since the start of 2009 — early June if it were playing out in a season — and for most of that span the Mets just haven’t scored many runs at all. Recall that in 2009 and 2010 the Mets were near the bottom of the Majors in runs scored, and consider that several of the other guys who show up near the bottom of that Run Support Average list both years — Zack Greinke, Cliff Lee, Felix Hernandez — seem to be guys who spent at the front of rotations for teams with poor lineups.

The 2012 Mets do not appear short on offense, so I’d bet on them starting to score plenty of runs for Santana soon.

 

Baseball > everything else

Jose Reyes returned to Citi Field today. By 3:35 p.m., there were some 30 members of the media waiting in a clumsy semicircle around an empty spot in the visitors’ dugout left vacant for Reyes. By 3:50 when Reyes emerged, there were probably 50, armed with voice recorders and video cameras and microphones of various sizes.

“He’s innocent!” Someone shouted as Reyes took his seat.

“You want to interview somebody?” Reyes said, and everyone laughed, and then Reyes answered a bunch of questions and said a bunch more things that you’ve probably already read by now and freaked out about. And then a few hours later the Mets and Marlins played a baseball game good enough to remind everyone that the things baseball players say are generally far less interesting than the things baseball players do on baseball fields, since those are the reasons we care so much about them in the first place.

Which is to say: In the top of the first inning, Reyes torched a flyball to center field that Kirk Nieuwenhuis ran down and Emilio Bonificaio lined a single past Ruben Tejada, then Johan Santana didn’t allow another ball out of the infield until the sixth inning. He struck out 11 batters in 6 2/3 innings, hitting spots with his fastball and flummoxing rubes with his changeup and slider.

Say what you will and already have about the Mets’ injury woes. Jason Bay, Mike Pelfrey and Andres Torres are hurt, sure. But a man who’s practically a medical miracle took the mound for the Mets today and struck out 11 Marlins. Remember that part of it too.

This baseball game also featured:

– Josh Johnson nearly equaling Santana.

– Two plays at the plate — one for each team. Daniel Murphy was caught trying to score on a close play on a pitch that got away from John Buck. In Santana’s last inning, Giancarlo Stanton singled then Gaby Sanchez lined a double off the wall in left and giant awesome Giancarlo Stanton came charging home. Mike Baxter bobbled the ball, then his throw pulled Tejada toward second base. Tejada spun and fired home in plenty of time to get Stanton, but the ball short-hopped Josh Thole and went through his legs.

– With two outs in the seventh, four different Marlins pitchers (Johnson, Randy Choate, Steve Cishek and Mike Dunn) combining to walk four consecutive Mets to force home the tying run. Ozzie Guillen looked like he was endeavoring some sort of performance-art meta-criticism of Terry Collins’ managing. It was great.

– A running, diving catch from the aforementioned Stanton.

– A Lucas Duda line drive that both put the Mets ahead for good and felled pitcher Edward Mujica, prompting parts of the crowd to start chanting, “DU-DA! DU-DA!”, which, given the sight of Mujica splayed in front of the mound, seemed pretty merciless and made the whole scene seem like something out of Gladiator.

– Did I mention Johan Santana struck out 11 guys in 6 2/3? He looks sad here but he shouldn’t be: