Category Archives: Baseball

Mets and Niese near extension

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Good. If the terms are as reported, Niese gets guaranteed money and the Mets buy out his arbitration years and get a few more years of control on top of that. If Niese is the guy he has been the last couple of years, they get him at a fair market value. If he stays healthy, pitches to his peripherals and improves, they can pick up his sixth- and seventh-year options and get him at very favorable rates.

Not a big-market move or a small-market move, and nothing innovative at this point. Just reasonable baseball decision-making, it seems. Presumably the same will follow for Niese’s young teammates if they prove capable of contributing at the Major League level in 2012.

I would like to take this time to revisit my stance on the Braves’ starting rotation

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Wednesday night on the Mostly Mets Podcast , I said I liked the Braves to win the division because of the depth in their starting rotation.

Today, the Braves signed Livan Hernandez, who was just cut by the Astros, to be their fifth starter. Apparently the Braves weren’t thrilled with the way some of their young pitchers looked in Spring Training, plus Tim Hudson’s going to miss the start of the season after back surgery.

I happen to love watching the Livan Hernandez Magic Show, so I’m all for it. But his acquisition probably doesn’t speak well of the depth in the Braves’ rotation I was lauding the other night.

Mike Pelfrey’s Spring Training stats: Still meaningless

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In a recent meeting that included the Mets’ executives and coaches, members of the front office suggested releasing Mike Pelfrey before Opening Day, according to two people with direct knowledge of the situation. None of the uniformed staff was in favor of the idea, and it was downplayed….

One team official characterized the recent discussion about cutting Pelfrey as “just what you do in meetings, throwing (stuff) against the wall, and we throw a lot of (stuff) against the wall,” and went on to predict that Pelfrey would have a strong year for the Mets.

– Andy Martino, N.Y. Daily News.

A couple of weeks ago, I posted Mike Pelfrey’s annual Spring Training and regular-season stats. Here they are now, after Pelfrey’s strong 6 1/3-inning outing against that thing calling itself the Astros:

Year Spring ERA Spring K:BB ERA K:BB
2008 8.14 0.8 3.72 1.72
2009 7.77 1.67 5.03 1.62
2010 6.15 8 3.66 1.66
2011 5.63 2.25 4.74 1.62
2012* 8.59 1.5

Pelfrey is everyone’s favorite LOLMets whipping boy for a variety for reasons. He was a high draft pick, he licks his hand, he admits to seeking counseling, and he’s not very good. Releasing him on account of any of those things, when he’s consistently above replacement level and the Mets have little in the way of Major League-ready starting pitching depth, would be silly.

Yes, there’s a chance Pelfrey repeats his poor 2011 season and will not be worth the $5.6875 million* he’ll make in 2012. But given his age, his propensity for health, and the randomness inherent in baseball, it seems just as likely he’ll pitch as well as he did in 2008 or 2010 and prove a valuable trade commodity if and when the Mets do have a Major League-ready replacement available.

And I know all about Chris Schwinden, Miguel Batista, Garrett Olson and Jeremy Hefner, and I understand the argument that says you could cobble together 200 innings as good as Pelfrey’s with a collection of guys on the Buffalo shuttle. But it doesn’t seem wise to enter a season like that, since you’re going to need those guys to cobble together Major League innings whenever some starter inevitably gets hurt.

*- Is it weird that Pelfrey’s listed salary goes to the fourth spot after the decimal point? That’s $500. I guess when you’re hammering those deals out to avoid arbitration, the player’s agent is going to fight for every last dollar, but how does that play out? “OK, how about $5,687,000?” “No, way, bro: $5,687,500 or we’re going to the arbiter.” Not a rhetorical question; I really have no idea how those negotiations work. I’m willing to find out if anyone wants to pay me upwards of $5 million to do anything.

Mets roster shaping up, fans freaking out

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The Mets made a bunch of cuts today and it looks like the Mikes Nickeas and Baxter will make the Opening Day roster.

Baxter seems to be catching a ton of undeserved flak, so I figured I’d try to provide a little perspective. Here’s how Mike Baxter stacks up against the division’s other lefty-hitting reserve outfielders, based on MLBDepthCharts.com:

Baxter is 27 and will be all season. He posted a .791 OPS in a tiny Major League sample in 2011. He has a career .820 OPS in Triple-A. His most recent full season in the Minors translates to a .751 OPS in the Majors.

The Braves’ Jose Constanza is 28. He posted a .724 OPS in 109 Major League at-bats in 2011. He has a career .742 OPS in Triple-A. His most recent full season in the Minors translates to a .676 OPS in the Majors.

The Phillies will have Juan Pierre on their bench and Laynce Nix in a platoon role. Pierre, 34, has mostly been a full-time player since 2001, but he has a career .708 OPS. In 639 at-bats last year, it was .657. It was also .657 in 651 at-bats in 2010. In mostly platoon work, the 31-year-old Nix has a career .718 OPS. Over the last three seasons he has a .768 mark.

The Marlins have Chris Coghlan, who won the Rookie of the Year award in 2009 and has plummeted since. Coghlan will turn 27 in June. Last year he posted a .664 OPS in 269 at-bats.

The Nationals have Roger Bernadina, who will turn 28 in June. Bernadina has a career .668 OPS and posted a .664 mark in 309 at-bats last year.

All of those guys have more big-league experience than Baxter, no doubt. But how many of them are clearly better? Nix has some pop but can’t get on base. Pierre and Bernadina can steal bases but can’t really hit. Constanza looks like a good defender but probably can’t outhit Baxter. Coghlan got his career off to a great start, but was woeful on both sides of the ball last year.

But you know, LOLMets.

For the millionth time, just because a guy has never played in the Majors doesn’t mean he can’t.

Mets sign some guy

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The Mets signed infielder Josh Rodriguez to a Minor League deal.

Rodriguez is probably joining the organization to give the team flexibility at Triple-A Buffalo. He has mostly played shortstop in the Minors, but has also spent time at second, third and in all three outfield spots.

Rodriguez endured a rough season at the plate in 2011, mustering only a .672 OPS in 295 at-bats between Double-A and Triple-A with the Pirates and Indians, and mostly at the lower level. But as recently as 2010 he looked like he could hit a bit, posting a sturdy .293/.372/.486 line in 317 at-bats for the Indians’ Triple-A team in Columbus.

That translates to a .254/.322/.409 line at Citi Field. So if he could regain that form, he’d fit as a replacement for Justin Turner as a righty-hitting utility man at the bigs if need be or — yeesh — represent a slight offensive upgrade over the 2011 version of Jason Bay in left.

More likely, Rodriguez gets sporadic at-bats in Double-A or Triple-A as an organizational soldier and we don’t hear his name again unless there’s a rash of injuries. But then we probably shouldn’t rule out a rash of injuries.

Mets over-under

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Context: Lucas Duda hit a triple today. Though he does not look like a guy who’d hit many triples, he managed three in his tenure with the Major League Mets last season and has 12 in his five-year professional career. Presumably the new fences at Citi Field will make triples ever so slightly tougher to come by for the Dude.

[poll id=”100″]

Twitter Q&A thing

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It’s the Buffalo Hot Dog from Box Frites. I’ve been on a huge Buffalo-stuff kick lately so my opinions might be skewed by that, but many of the other people I spoke to at the event felt the same way.

It’s a great combination of classic sports flavors, for one thing: the hot dog from baseball, the Buffalo-wing flavor from football. And it allows you to enjoy that Buffalo flavor in a portable, ballpark-friendly form. It’s well executed, too. Really can’t say enough about the Buffalo hot dog.

I was a little disappointed in the Cholula Chipotle Chicken Sandwich, only because everything on there sounded really good — I forget all of it now, but I think it was chicken cutlet, Cholula chipotle sauce, guacamole, pepper jack cheese and bacon. It wasn’t nearly as spicy as I expected, plus it was hard to get a good taste of the combination of ingredients in its miniature form. But it wasn’t ideal circumstances. Obviously I will give it a proper review once the season starts and I pick back up on the quest to eat all the Citi Field sandwiches.

Joe, I believe that’d be what Marlo Stanfield would call “one of them good problems.” Last year was the first time since 2000 that the Mets had five starters make at least 25 starts, and it’s far from a guarantee the same guys enjoy the same amount of health in 2012. So if Familia and Harvey are pitching their way into mid-season call-ups in Triple-A and the team doesn’t have an obvious candidate to drop, it’s good news twice over.

If that does happen, though, and assuming all the pitchers are performing in keeping with preseason expectations, you have to figure Pelfrey’s the first to go. I’m not sure that Gee has more upside, but since Gee is under team control for so much longer, he’s got more value to the club. Ideally, some contending team gets desperate for a starter who can reliably eat up some innings and Sandy Alderson finds a way to spin Pelfrey into something of future value.

After that, it probably comes down to effectiveness. Guessing right now, I’d say Gee gets pushed out if those guys both pitch their way into promotions and everyone stays healthy, but I’d never really guess that those guys both pitcher their way into promotions and everyone stays healthy.

I feel like this is the question I as born to answer, yet now that I’m here I’m stumped.

The Mets are like a big, delicious, meaty sandwich that you take a couple of bites out of and fall in love with, and then out of nowhere some guy punches you in the stomach and takes your sandwich. And you keep getting the same sandwich every day even though you practically know that guy’s going to punch you and take it, because those first few bites are so awesome and you want to finish one so badly that you’re just going to keep trying and trying no matter how often you get punched.