I know I said I was ignoring this…

But Patrick Flood takes a much more detailed look at what the Mets can expect in return for Carlos Beltran and comes to a pretty similar conclusion to the one I reached last week. Only his version has a lot more substance. I fear many Mets fans may have set their hopes unreasonably high based on the first reports that leaked out about the team’s demands. But the other thing is, we’ll find out really soon one way or the other.

SIERA missed

At Baseball Prospectus, Colin Wyers explains why the site is abandoning its ERA estimator SIERA and details some of the failures of that stat and xFIP compared to FIP and plain-old ERA. It’s a dense read, but worth the effort. It’s a good reminder that all the best efforts to assess baseball teams and players are always works in progress. It’s fun — and valuable, in my opinion — to stay up on the latest thinking, but if you want to cite any one stat as gospel, you should remember that there’s a pretty good chance it’ll go out of vogue within a couple of years.

New Mostly Mets podcast

This one lacks that certain me-ish flair. But the Sand Gnats went 12 innings last night so Toby couldn’t start until late, and I had to wake up at 5:30 a.m. today to drive my wife to school so I could have the car to get to the game. I know you thought the life of a sandwich blogger was all glamor but there’s a lot of driving my wife around involved too. Anyway, listen to the podcast. Especially you, Swedish people. Patrick is really counting on you.