The forthcoming Jose Reyes decision

A bunch of people have asked me, via a bunch of different media, what I think the Mets should do about the forthcoming Jose Reyes decision. Reyes, as you know, is slated to be a free agent after this season. Now Jon Heyman has tweeted that the Mets will let him play the full season to prove he’s healthy before they extend him another contract.

This is a tough call. If Reyes stays healthy for the full the season and plays as he is capable of — as he did from 2006-2008 — he’ll have little motivation to rejoin the Mets beyond what he always says (and what most players always say) about loving the organization and the city and everything else. And if all that happens, he can count on a massive payday.

If the Mets work to extend Reyes before he demonstrates he can stay on the field and be productive, they risk paying him big money to stay on the disabled list or put up the underwhelming numbers he did in 2010.

Sandy Alderson has said that “stolen bases are a footnote” to winning baseball, a quote many construed to mean Reyes is a goner after the season. But even if Reyes stole no bases at all from 2006-2008, he would still rank among the premier shortstops in the Majors. In fact, since 2006, Reyes has been third among all shortstops in OPS, behind only Derek Jeter and Hanley Ramirez. And he does steal bases at a high enough clip to make them worthwhile, so, you know gravy.

Many will — and have — argued that Reyes’ value is in his legs and so signing him to a multi-year extension could be foolish, as he will inevitably slow down over time. I think that undercuts the man a bit. There’s plenty of value in his bat and his glove too. Both of those, of course, require his legs (his slugging percentage is at least partly inflated by his ability to take extra bases) but certainly not the way stolen bases do.

It has long been supposed that Reyes, who is deceptively broad-shouldered, will develop more power in time. Only he’s 27 now, and it hasn’t happened yet. It’s worth noting, too, a tidbit Rob Neyer passed along today: While players hit their offensive peaks in their late 20s, they hit their defensive peaks from 22-25. Reyes may never again be the elite defensive player he was when he came up.

So what to do? We — I — like Reyes; he is a homegrown and enormously talented young player. If he succeeds in 2011 and the Mets re-sign him, the deal may be so expensive as to prove costly down the road. But if they determine he is not worth the massive salary he is likely to command (the Yankees, recall, may be looking for a shortstop soon enough), they will be accused of penny-pinching and small-market Sandying and everything else.

There’s no obvious answer, but to me the best solution seems like exactly the opposite of what Heyman says the Mets are doing. If the team determines early in the season that Reyes is again capable of getting on base at a 35-percent clip, it can work to lock him up long enough before he hits the open market to maintain some part of the discount afforded by his last two underwhelming seasons. There’s more risk that way, of course (he could get injured or revert to being a leadoff hitter with a .321 OBP).

But then that supposes that Alderson and Reyes’ agents are willing to negotiate in the season. So really I’ve got nothing. No easy answer. My bad.

Sorting something out

Indulge me for a moment while I sort something out:

This site has never strived for objectivity. I don’t believe any such thing exists, for one, plus this is inherently an opinion-based blog, not a news outlet. My primary goal is clarity, both in my thought and in my writing (I often fail to achieve both, but that’s besides the point).

So I am trying to elucidate why, when I read this story in the Times this morning, my initial, visceral response was a pang of concern.

I have mixed feelings, as I suppose many Mets fans do, about the team’s ownership situation. Obviously I would prefer my favorite team not be riddled with debt, and I realize that there are prospective buyers out there whose involvement, both as part- or full-owners, will benefit the team in the long term (and some who could hurt it, too).

But I know I would prefer that this network not change hands. (And I should note that I have never met Fred or Jeff Wilpon outside of public forums. I don’t know what or how much involvement they have with people up the chain from me at SNY, as I am not privy to those details.)

I like my job. It puts a roof over my head and bacon on my table, for one, and it provides health insurance that I need very desperately. It affords me the opportunity to do all sorts of awesome things, many of them involving my favorite sport and my favorite team. No outlet before this one gave me the chance to write or opine in any quasi-professional setting.

And perhaps most importantly, no one has ever told me what to write about or what not to write about. No one tells me not to rip the Mets or their management, and no one tells me not to review sandwiches.

That’s something I value very much, and I fear that if this network changed hands, I could lose that freedom. And I honestly don’t know what I’d do if I did. So it is probably impossible for me to weigh in on the inclusion of SNY in any sale of the Mets without letting my massive — and, as far as I’m concerned, wholly justifiable — biases get in the way.

I will continue linking relevant news items and adding my two cents where appropriate.

Even more Madoff stuff

Good read from the Times, though I suspect some of the reaction to it is overblown. Maybe I’m reading this through SNY-colored glasses, but I’m not entirely sure where the smoking gun is here. We knew already the Wilpons had lots of money invested with Madoff and this provides a ton of details about those investments. But if they recommended their employees also invest money with Madoff, why does that imply they were in on the scheme?

We’ve read that the Wilpons, through withdrawn interest over a long time, netted something like $40 million on an investment in the half-billion dollar range. Is that a big enough haul for billionaires (or at least people who thought at the time they were billionaires) to essentially rob their own employees? What’s the motivation there?

Seems way more likely that the Wilpons were just epically duped by Madoff. And while I’d like to think I’d be a little more skeptical of a guy claiming to return 18 percent on my giant investment, Madoff managed to steal $65 billion dollars, so he was probably a pretty convincing huckster.

Maybe it’s time to stop talking about the Johan Santana trade like it was a total steal

Look: Johan Santana is an awesome pitcher. I love watching Johan Santana pitch. I have thoroughly enjoyed all 600 innings — even the bad ones — he has thrown in a Mets uniform.

But every time someone pens a lamentation for the Omar Minaya Era, it is qualified with an aside about Minaya’s obtaining Santana for “pennies on the dollar,” or something to that effect. (Jonah Keri’s otherwise strong writeup of the Mets’ ownership situation at Fangraphs is only the most recent example.) And I can’t see how that’s really the case.

The four young players the Mets traded for Johan Santana have not amounted to much, and may never.

But the Mets didn’t exactly trade four young players for Santana; the Mets traded four young players for the exclusive right to sign Santana to a market-rate contract. Santana was the best pitcher in the game when he was acquired, so that contract cost the Mets a lot of money.

To date, they’ve paid him $60 million. Fangraphs estimates he has been worth a little over $47 million in that time, but whatever. You pay a premium for top talent. Let’s say he has been worth it for these first three years.

On Opening Day of 2011, Santana will be 32 years old and on the disabled list recovering from shoulder surgery. And the Mets will owe him $77.5 million over the next three seasons. $77.5 million, with no guarantee he’ll ever be anything like the pitcher that dominated the National League in 2008. Will the exclusive right to give him that contract back in 2008 still seem so valuable by 2012? 2013?

And you can say: Oh but how could anyone have predicted an arm injury? Pretty easily, actually: He’s a pitcher. Pitchers get hurt, like, constantly. That’s why massive deals for free-agent pitchers tend to be bad ideas.

So while Santana has given the Mets more than the combined value of the four players they traded to the Twins, he is at this point unlikely to provide them anything like a full return on the resources they’ve invested in him. The deal seemed necessary at the time, with the Mets desperate for starting pitching and coming off the 2007 collapse, so this is not to say Minaya shouldn’t have executed it in the first place. But it’s probably time to stop talking about it like it was a total steal, since Santana’s contract seems likely to prove an albatross moving forward.

Twitter Q&A-type thing

These are slow times. This is something akin to a Twitter Q&A:

It hasn’t. This might disappoint some people, but on most workdays I bring a sandwich from home. It’s a good way to save money and not die. Today my wife made it for me. It was pepper ham and turkey with provolone cheese and Boar’s Head Pepperhouse Gourmaise on whole-wheat bread. Not bad.

But the blizzard in late December did prevent me from eating many good sandwiches. I was all set for a short jaunt to New Orleans — our nation’s premier sandwich destination — but the snow came and canceled my flight. That sucked, but it’s sort of awesome that every once in a while Mother Nature comes around to remind everyone who’s in charge here. “Oh, you think you’re going to fly 1000 miles in a few hours? I disagree. Enjoy shoveling, sucker.”

And, honestly at this point, f@#$ snow. So hard. I can hardly remember the times I used to think snow was fun and cool and beautiful. I do remember one time during a snowstorm in Brooklyn, I was walking back to Prospect Heights from Park Slope at night and I decided to cut through the park. The reflection of the moon off the snow combined with the lights along the path to make the whole park glow, and the snow was as-yet unadulterated by footprints. It was Thomas Kincade idyllic.

But when you live in the suburbs and it snows you have a car you need to shovel out and you don’t have a super, so snow is just a huge pain in the ass. And it just keeps snowing. Shoveling is part of my morning routine now. It’s terrible. Is it snowing now? I haven’t been outside since 9 a.m.

This is beyond the scope of my lack of expertise, but here’s the thing: Keeping him off the mound in 2011 in no way assures he’ll be healthy in 2012. Shoulder injuries are bad news, worse than elbow injuries. See Chien-Ming Wang and Mark Prior and Brandon Webb and Kelvim Escobar for details. I don’t know the extent of Santana’s injury and surgery and I’m obviously not a doctor, but it sounded like what he was having done was a pretty big procedure.

I hate to be doom-and-gloom about this one, but I’d be pleasantly surprised if Santana is actually back in the Mets’ rotation by the All-Star Break. I know that’s the target and I don’t think anyone is lying, but it just seems like the road back from major shoulder injury is a long and often rocky one. And, to Patrick’s question, I’m not even sure that giving Santana a year to rest and recover would be the best way to ensure his success in 2012. To get back to full strength, he’s going to need to pitch at some point. If and when he’s healthy, I’m not sure there’s any good reason to hold him back.

Seriously! I don’t see what was wrong with plain old white Formica. I have a faux-granite countertop at home now, and to me it always makes it seem like the counters are dirty, even when they’re clean. In past apartments, before I lived with a woman, if there were lots of little specks on my counter it meant it was time to straighten up. Now, it’s just like that, even when it’s clean.

One time the lead singer of our old band booked a show through Craigslist. The gig was at 1 a.m. in a bar in North Bellmore called Jesse’s and we were playing after a band called Defective Skrew. Earlier in the day I drove around the area and couldn’t find the place. I became concerned that this other band just wanted to take us into a dark alley and steal our instruments and clothes and maybe our innocence. I thought maybe that’s what the “Defective Skrew” was.

It turned out the bar was for real, though, and a total dive. This is almost counterintuitive, but you know a place is really, really sketchy if it’s extremely well lit. This place had like middle-school style overhead fluorescent lights that stayed on the whole night, and we didn’t play until around 2. It was actually a decent-sized crowd, and a small fight broke out during our set, perhaps because North Bellmore was just rocked way too hard for its own good.

After the show, while we were loading up our cars, one of the guys from the fight who had been kicked out started talking to us, and someone made the mistake of asking him about the fight. He started demonstrating exactly how it all went down, using us as stand-ins for the people he fought, but he was so drunk that it wasn’t clear if he could distinguish us from the dudes he was actually angry at. At some point he broke and brandished a beer bottle, Outsiders-style. It was terrifying.

All my other Craigslist interactions have been relatively mild. Usually they have been to buy tickets to concerts, or to sell or exchange them if I have tickets to a concert I can’t attend.

Also, though the story is tragic and awful, it’s funny to me that the press associates the recent serial killer activity on Long Island with Craigslist. The guy killed prostitutes, as serial killers often do. Prostitutes advertise on the Internet. He’s not an Internet villain, he’s a straight-up villain. The Internet is just, at this point, the easiest place for a psychopath to find victims.

The pound or number sign — # — is also called the “Octothorpe” in phone-industry insider talk. There are many different claims as to the word’s origin but at least one says it was named for Jim Thorpe. It would also make a sweet band name.