OK, I promise I didn’t already know about Johan Santana’s forthcoming season-ending surgery when I argued earlier that the Mets should be looking for pitching help this offseason.

But the fact is this’ll make three straight years with surgery for Santana, and though he finished strong and his peripherals started picking up near the end of this campaign, it’s foolish to expect he’ll be fully healthy for all of 2011. He could be, of course, but he’ll be a 32-year-old pitcher with a lot of innings on his arm and a bunch of surgeries on his chart.

We’ll get back to this a billion times this offseason and there’s a bunch of interesting baseball to be played between now and then. Plus we’ll have a better sense of the market, of who’s available, of what Dillon Gee looks like across a few more Major League starts, how much public sentiment there’s going to be clamoring for Jenrry Mejia and everything else.

This doesn’t matter much for the 2010 Mets because nothing has mattered much for the 2010 Mets for a while, which is why we get all caught up in off-field nonsense, politics, media criticism, armchair psychoanalysis and everything else.

This matters for the 2011 Mets, though, and the 2012 and 2013 Mets too. The club owes Santana $77.5 million over the next three seasons, according to Cots, and if he’s not pitching for any prolonged stretch of that it makes Luis Castillo’s contract look like a bargain.

Sorry if I sound gloomy. Maybe the news will seem better when we have more of it.

Since his first season in rookie ball, Tejada has also eschewed the walk. He didn’t hit average walk rates in Single-, Double- or Triple-A. He also had a career ISO of .075 in the minor leagues (and flyball rate that fell as he advanced, which seems to predict little future power), so he kind of looks like a younger Castillo without the walks and a little better defense. The defense is the reason management thinks he is best candidate for this year, but the offense will limit him to a backup most likely. If only he walked more, or even had the exciting speed of Arias, he would have a secondary skill beyond defense and upside for more value.

– Eno Sarris, Fangraphs.com.

Eno does a really nice job running down the Mets’ second-base situation, but I’m not sure he gives Tejada an entirely fair shake by saying he “has also eschewed the walk,” lumping him in with Joaquin Arias.

First of all, Arias walked in only about 4.3% of his Minor League plate appearances and Tejada walked in about 7.9%, a pretty big difference. But the major distinction is that Tejada did all his damage while always very young for his level — often the youngest player at his level, and a full year younger than Arias was as he progressed through the Minors.

Clearly Tejada’s not about to go all Alex Rodriguez on the Major Leagues or anything, but I’m just not ready to give up on him and say he won’t be a regular Major League middle infielder someday.

I don’t think that’s what Eno’s doing, but it seems like way too many Mets fans are willing to write Tejada off entirely just because the team has advanced him at a very young age to a level at which he cannot yet succeed. That’s not really his fault.

Plus, and not for nothing, it’s not like he’s completely embarrassing himself. Yes, he’s got a .188 average and no power to speak of. But he’s also suffering from a very low .221 batting average on balls in play, suggesting he has been victimized by a bit of bad luck. Plus, for whatever it’s worth, he’s still getting on base at a higher clip than three guys who were in the Mets’ hilarious Opening Day lineup (and just below two others).

And look: I don’t know that Ruben Tejada will ever turn into a productive Major League hitter or anything like that. I’m just saying that 200 plate appearances at age 20 mean absolutely nothing in the grand scheme of things. If he were in Double-A right now, where he’d still be young for the level, we’d probably be salivating over the kid and wondering why he wasn’t considered a bigger prospect.

But at the risk of disagreeing with Ted Berg, something I try never to do, I believe the 5-6 starts Mejia makes between now and October should be at least somewhat determinative as to whether the Mets go after a starter this offseason.

Consider that all reports have the Mets with very little money to spend this offseason. So should Mejia, say, dominate in a similar way to his Monday start in Buffalo, or even approach that from a peripheral standpoint, the Mets should really spend the money it would take to bring in a starting pitcher when they have a returning five of a (hypothetically) dominant Mejia, Dickey, Niese, Santana and Pelfrey? When the team has no second baseman, one outfielder whose production can be counted on, no backup plans at catcher or first base, and no bullpen?

– Howard Megdal, New York Baseball Digest.

Well dammit, Howard, try harder.

Seriously, though, this is an easier point to contend with now that Mejia looked unspectacular in his first start on Saturday, but even if he goes out and dominates his next four outings I’ll still likely argue that he should start next season in Triple-A.

If Mejia pitches every fifth game for the rest of the season and throws a complete game in each outing (which probably won’t happen), he’ll barely have thrown 100 innings this season. The Mets will be wise to limit him in 2011, and bringing him along slowly in the Minor Leagues — allowing him to better his control and secondary arsenal — seems like as good a way as any to do that. Then, if he succeeds in Triple-A, unleash him on the National League. Let him force his way into the Majors, rather than the other way around.

Dillon Gee’s nice start provides some optimism that the Mets can fill out their pitching staff from within regardless of whether Mejia is ready, but I’d still argue that the team should pursue rotation depth this offseason. Assuming Dickey, Santana, Pelfrey and Niese all stay healthy and pitch this well again in 2011, with no contingency plan, could burn the team.

Of course, as Howard points out, pitching is hardly the team’s only need and the wisdom of all offseason moves is dictated by the cost.

Yes, the Mets will need to find some way to better their offense, though I think they can actually safely assume something of a return to form from Jason Bay and some improvement from Ike Davis, and that simply not having Jeff Francoeur suck up 400 at-bats in a corner outfield spot will benefit the team immensely.

These are concerns for the offseason, of course.

The important thing is that the Mets are still playing baseball, and that with Mejia taking the mound tonight against the full-strength Phillies, there’s actually something interesting to watch.

The Mets perpetually throw away at-bats on pieces not likely to contribute in 2011. It happened in a small way Tuesday when David Wright was scratched and Mike Hessman rather than, say, Nick Evans was used at third base in his place. And it could happen at second base this weekend with Jose Reyes scheduled to return to the lineup Friday to face Philadelphia’s Roy Halladay.

Asked if Ruben Tejada would see the bulk of the starts at second base once Reyes returns, Manuel indicated not necessarily — saying Luis Hernandez merits time based on his recent performances.

– Adam Rubin, ESPN New York.

This. Evans needs at-bats. Tejada needs at-bats. I’m rooting like hell for Hessman, but he’s not part of the team’s future. To piggyback on my earlier point, Evans could be a homegrown Fernando Tatis type without the million-dollar pricetag. And yet the Mets didn’t want him playing the outfield in the Minors for some strange reason and now are opting to give Hessman more at-bats in the Majors.

This is part of the issue with having a lame-duck manager. Manuel has no impetus to do anything besides win games and better his resume. Even an organizational interim guy might be motivated to take a look toward the future and improve his standing with the club.