Several Mets fans have suggested to me they’d like to see the team sign A.J. Pierzynski. Assuming that would require a multi-year deal or even a lucrative one-year deal, it’s just not a good idea.
As you may know, Pierzynski hit 27 home runs last year. As you may also know, regression to the mean is a extraordinarily powerful force in baseball, and Pierzynski has never before been as good as he was at age 35 in 2012.
In fact, using park- and league-adjusted OPS+, Pierzynski’s 96 career mark in the stat is actually one point lower than Josh Thole’s rate from 2009-2011. Thole fell apart offensively after returning from a concussion in 2012, but if he can return to form, it’s at least even money he’ll be a better hitter than Pierzynski in 2013. And Thole is a full decade younger than Pierzynski.
Teams with financial limitations and almost no outfielders to speak of should not hand out big contracts to 36-year-old catchers coming off the best seasons of their careers.
If Pierzynski hit right-handed and came cheap, he might fit as a platoon partner for Thole. But since Pierzynski and Thole both hit left-handed, the Mets would be paying a premium to displace a 26-year-old who hit like a league average catcher from 2009 to 2011 in favor of a 36-year-old who hit like a league average catcher from 2009 to 2011. If Thole can bounce back and the team can find a suitable right-handed complement, it should be able to get at least the production Pierzynski would provide at the catcher position and dedicate the resources that would be required to sign him toward outfielders.
Here’s my best guess at how the Mets would be set up if the season started today. This is only based on guys on the 40-man roster, which is silly because they’ve got a couple open spots and will inevitably have a bunch of non-roster Spring Training invitees. But the whole exercise is silly; that’s kind of the point:
Starting pitchers
R.A. Dickey
Johan Santana
Jon Niese
Dillon Gee
Matt Harvey
Bullpen
Frank Francisco
Bobby Parnell
Josh Edgin
Elvin Ramirez
Greg Burke
Robert Carson
Jeremy Hefner
Lineup (vs. righties, at least)
1. Ruben Tejada – SS
2. Daniel Murphy – 2B
3. David Wright – 3B
4. Ike Davis – 1B
5. Lucas Duda – LF
6. Mike Baxter – RF
7. Kirk Nieuwenhuis – CF
8. Josh Thole – C
Bench
C Anthony Recker
INF Justin Turner
INF Brandon Hicks
OF Juan Lagares
UTIL Jordany Valdespin
So the starting pitching should be pretty good. The bullpen looks shaky and the outfield scary.
The Mets will not enter the season with the above-listed 25-man roster. Changes will come. How many and how important they are remains to be seen, but it’s pointless to fret now when Spring Training’s still months away. We’ll have plenty of time to fret then.
In short: Moderate. I’ll be brief here because I’ve got meetings all afternoon.
Per the New York Post, the Mets have interest in Ross and view him as a potential everyday player, but see Hairston as more of a platoon outfielder.
Over the course of their careers, Ross has only marginally outhit Hairston against right-handers: Ross has a .727 OPS in the split to Hairston’s .704. But it’s probably telling that while the two have almost exactly the same number of appearances against left-handed pitchers, Ross has nearly twice as many as Hairston against righties. So it could be that Hairston’s numbers against righties are a bit inflated by a lack of exposure to the toughest right-handers.
Other than that, they’re pretty similar players. Ross is seven months younger than Hairston. They’re both adequate defenders in the outfield corners who can fill in at center in a pinch. They both hit for power, but Ross gets on base a bit more. And, again, Ross has had slightly more success against and a lot more exposure to right-handers.
Of course, signing either would give the Mets only one capable right-handed hitting outfielder at the Major League level. It’s unclear how much they’ll cost and how much the Mets have to spend, but bringing in both to join Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Mike Baxter and Lucas Duda could allow them to cobble together a decent outfield by carefully managing platoons and defensive alignments. It might get a little hairy on defense sometimes, but you start Duda when the ground-ball pitchers are on the mound and so on.
This is as much for me as it is for you, as I’m as guilty as anyone of getting caught up in the hype around big-name MLB prospects. But most MLB prospects suck, and it’s important we not lose sight of that.
I don’t know why that’s important. Actually, it’s not important all you want. Continue overhyping prospects all you want. But before you start swooning for some dude with a cool name and a strong reputation that you’ve never seen play, you should probably check out this post from Royals Review last offseason.
Players ranked in Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects “bust” — i.e. contribute little to nothing at the big-league level — nearly 70 percent of the time. 70 percent! And Baseball America is awesome at what it does. It’s just that trying to figure out which baseball players will be good and which will suck is an extraordinarily difficult task.
Mets fans — and I again include myself here — love to get all woe-is-me and recount the series of big-name Mets prospects who have failed at the Major League level: Alex Escobar, Alex Ochoa, Generation K. But check out that Royals Review post again: From 1990-2003, the Mets prospects succeeded at roughly the league average rate. Every team in the Majors has its Alex Escobar.
And this is obviously not to say teams should give up on grooming prospects or we should give up on tracking them. When a young player turns into a legitimate Major Leaguer, his team has a cost-controlled contributor for up to seven seasons. That’s enormously valuable.
But there are no sure things, and when leafing through prospects lists to determine good trade packages the Mets can get in return for R.A. Dickey, remember that the large majority of guys you’re reading about won’t ever provide their teams a quarter of what Dickey gave the Mets last year. And same goes for the guys on the Mets’ list.
I can’t purport to know the team’s strategy, but if I had to guess, they’re tarrying to see if any team ponies up some impressive package of young position players for Dickey.
If the best the Mets can get for Dickey is Mike Olt in a straight-up swap, they’re better off giving Dickey the extension he’s seeking and hoping they’ll get more surplus value from their knuckleballing ace in the next three seasons than they would from Olt in the next seven. If the Rangers panic and add additional promising young players to the deal, the Mets are probably better off trading Dickey than extending his contract.
If a Dickey trade could net the Mets two regular position players under team control for five or more seasons, it’d be worth it — especially given the Mets’ apparent lack of regular position players in the upper levels of their farm system. But obviously most players with five or more seasons of team control remaining come with quite a bit of uncertainty, way more so even than 38-year-olds trafficking in the much-reviled knuckleball.
In any case, there really shouldn’t be as much urgency here as the Internet seems to be demanding. It’s Dec. 11, after all. Assuming Dickey’s terms don’t change or the team does not irritate him into testing free agency after 2013, there’s no real harm in the club biding its time to measure the trade market. If Sandy Alderson determines extending Dickey’s contract is the Mets’ most appealing option, we’ll forget all about this sluggishness in the negotiations long before Dickey takes the mound on Opening Day. Again, our offseason boredom does not and should not impact the way the Mets approach improving the club.
I don’t know how I’ve missed this until now, but thanks to Michael Donato for the heads up: This Tumblr posts a different image of Mr. Met every day to reflect the illustrator’s mood or something that happened to him. I’ve spent the last half hour working my way through the archives. It’s pretty awesome, though some of them may be disturbing for small children sensitive to Mr. Met’s brand identity or whatever.
This is apparently from a pre-game ceremony after Shinjo retired and not actual game action, though anyone who speaks Japanese is welcome to chime in with more details. Most importantly, Shinjo’s uniform number is just a picture of his face. Also, he’s wearing an amazing glove:
In case you missed it, this weekend featured more hot-stove action than the entire span of the Winter Meetings. And the two biggest weekend headlines at least vaguely pertain to the Mets.
First, the Dodgers signed Zack Greinke to a six-year, $147 million contract. Greinke’s a very nice pitcher, but outside of his outstanding 2009 campaign he has hardly pitched like an ace. He routinely posts great rate stats, but his 106 ERA+ over the last three seasons is barely above league average. At 29, he’s reasonably young by free agent standards, and now, thanks to the Dodgers’ absurd new spending habits, he’s extraordinarily rich by every standard.
Based on results alone, Greinke actually pitched a bit like Jon Niese in 2012. The pitchers finished with similar rates in ERA+, WHIP, ground-ball percentage, hits per nine, walks per nine and home runs per nine. Greinke struck out more batters and threw 22 more innings, both of which are important. And Greinke comes with a much stronger resume, since 2012 was by far Niese’s best season to date. But since Greinke will earn as much in 2014 alone as Niese will for the next four seasons, his payday makes the Mets’ contract for the young lefty look like even more of a steal.
Of course, the Dodgers now seem to be operating like the Yankees did in the latter half of the last decade, so it’s not necessarily reasonable to compare the money they’re willing to pay for players to the money other teams should be paying for players. With $115 million already on L.A.’s books for 2017 (!), Greinke’s massive salary looks only like a large drop in a inconceivably huge bucket.
Still, if it sets any sort of precedent for player value in the TV-contract era, it seems to bode well for the Mets in the short term. Assuming Greinke’s contract does not exist in a vacuum, it makes signing R.A. Dickey at even the most expensive rumored terms look like striking oil (presumably with a hard knuckleball that flummoxed a catcher and drilled itself into the ground somewhere). And it means Dickey at his current $5-million rate for 2013 may present even more value to a trade partner than we previously expected.
Speaking of: The second big baseball thing that happened this weekend was a trade between the Royals and Rays. The Rays sent pitchers James Shields and Wade Davis to Kansas City for prospects Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery and Patrick Leonard.
Myers you presumably know about by now: He’s baseball’s top hitting prospect and was the Royals’ best trade chip in their hunt to upgrade their starting rotation. Shields and Davis should do that, to varying degrees. Shields is a very good pitcher who has thrown at least 200 innings in every full season he has pitched in the Majors, and comes to the Royals on a one-year deal worth $9 million with a $12 million option for 2014. Davis excelled out of the Rays’ bullpen in 2012, but pitched more or less like Mike Pelfrey as a starter in 2010 and 2011. He’s only 27 and he’s signed for the next two seasons for $7.6 million total, with escalating options on his contract that run through 2017.
Shields and Davis look to become the Royals’ best and fourth-best starters, respectively, and push from Kansas City’s rotation some of the dreck they started in 2012. If we can attribute any reason to the front office that gave Jeff Francoeur a three-year contract, it looks like the Royals have identified 2013 and 2014 as a window to contend and sacrificed some part of their future to do so.
But on paper, the cost looks huge. In addition to Myers, the Royals sent the Rays two of their best-regarded and nearest to ready pitching prospects in Odorizzi and Montgomery. Odorizzi entered 2012 as Baseball America’s No. 68 prospect and pitched well in Double- and Triple-A. Montgomery, a lefty, entered 2012 as BA’s No. 23 prospect but struggled throughout the year. Both will be 23 on Opening Day, and both will join the Rays’ consistently obscene arsenal of highly regarded starting-pitching prospects, the strength that allowed them to deal Shields.
It’s hard to figure how the Royals value Shields vis a vis R.A. Dickey. Shields is younger and nearly as good with a longer history of big-league success and an extra year of team control, but will be more expensive in the near term. But, again, the huge cost in prospects the Royals were willing to part with for Shields seems to speak well of what the Mets’ could seek in return for Dickey, should they decide to trade the knuckleballer.