Barry Bonds isn’t going to jail

Just put yourself in our shoes when you get a second. Or in the shoes of Cardinals fans or Cubs fans. When 40,000 people get out of their chairs in Milwaukee next April and give Ryan Braun a standing ovation, don’t just assume that they’re all bleating goats who will chew on whatever tin cans they’re fed. This stuff’s complicated. Being a passionate fan of anything messes with your brain chemistry. That’s what made my brain spam me with feel-good chemicals after Bonds got off with a slap of the wrist. When I think of Bonds, I think about some of the fondest memories baseball has ever given me. Around these parts, that will give him a pass for an awful lot over the rest of his life, even if you can’t understand that.

Grant Brisbee, McCoveyChronicles.com.

First: The frequency with which I’ve found myself linking to Brisbee’s posts lately suggests to me he’s having a hell of an offseason. Go click through and read this whole thing; it’s awesome.

Second: I’d guess every baseball fan in the country who came of age in the last 15-20 years feels for some now-tainted (or at least suspected) player the way Brisbee does for Bonds. Mine’s Mark McGwire, among others.

I strongly disagree with 61% of you

I’m kind of surprised by the results of the earlier poll. As of right now, 61% of you would not trade Jon Niese for Gio Gonzalez. I voted “yes,” and I figured most of you would — in fact I thought it seemed like such a no-brainer I questioned whether I should even bother posting the poll. I hope the post itself didn’t sway any votes. If I were Sandy Alderson and that deal was on the table, I would trade Niese for Gonzalez before Billy Beane even had a chance to hang up and consult with Jonah Hill.

And yeah, though Niese’s xFIP and FIP might show signs that he could be better than Gonzalez, he just hasn’t been better than Gonzalez — or really anything close. He has been kind of bad and Gonzalez has been kind of awesome. I know there’s a lot to suggest they’ll both come back toward the middle, but I find it hard to believe they’ll cross. If that’s an indication that I lack faith in xFIP, then… well, actually yes: That’s an indication that I lack faith in xFIP.

And beyond that, what puts Gonzalez over the top is that he’s thrown 200 innings in each of the last two seasons. Niese’s injuries have been reasonably minor and trying to figure out which healthy pitcher is more likely to get hurt is silly, but I’ll take the guy who has started off his career showing the durability that Gonzalez has.

Just asking

Before I get into this, I should note that I put about as much stock in recent rumors that the Mets are “in on Gio Gonzalez” as I do in any offseason trade rumors, which is to say basically none.

I bring it up only because it calls to light a reasonably interesting question about our faith in certain advanced stats, especially when comparing Gonzalez to Jon Niese, also the subject of nebulous recent trade rumors.

Spend some time with Niese’s Fangraphs and baseball-reference pages and Gonzalez’s entries on the same sites.

Both pitchers throw left-handed. Gonzalez is a year older than Niese and has pitched 71 2/3 more innings over the past two seasons. Both are set for free agency after the 2015 season, but Gonzalez has Super 2 status, meaning he is eligible for arbitration a year earlier than Niese (ie this season) and should collect substantially more money over the course of the next four seasons if both stay healthy.

(How much more money is very hard to say, both because it’s so difficult to assume pitchers will stay healthy and because, as you will see below, it’s not necessarily safe to assume both will continue performing the way they have so far. Also because I suck at this. But I’m guessing about $15 million more over the length of the contract? Anyone?)

Gonzalez has far outpaced Niese in terms of results the last two seasons. He posted a cumulative 129 ERA+ to Niese’s 89 and finished in the top 10 in the American League in the stat both years.

But by many rate stats, Niese has been just as good if not better than Gonzalez. Gonzalez strikes out a few more batters, but Niese has a way better strikeout to walk ratio. Niese has yielded a slightly higher ground-ball rate across his career but has fallen victim to (or, depending on whom you ask, been the perpetrator of) a much higher batting average on balls in play. Both pitch their home games in parks known for suppressing home runs, but Gonzalez has allowed fewer home runs per fly ball over the past two seasons.

All that adds up to mean that though Gonzalez has pitched to a much better ERA and ERA+ over the past two seasons, Niese has had a better xFIP both years and boasts a lower career FIP.

I have no doubt where I stand on this one, but I’ve tried to stay neutral in presenting the above facts because I don’t want to sway you. Keep in mind the distinctions in likely salary and recent injury history. Pure hypothetical:

[poll id=”47″]

 

Projecting Lucas Duda

Mike Salfino looks at some comps for our new hero after his first part-season of regular big-league work and likes the return. I’ll throw in that a quick survey of the guys listed shows that few of them flashed the type of power that Duda did in the high Minors. Ryan Howard’s numbers, somewhat predictably, demolish everyone else’s. But if you’ll recall, Howard spent a couple of seasons stuck behind Ol’ Jim Jam in the Phillies’ system.

This happened

When I brought it up on the Podcast, you hear me first suggest Luis Castillo hit a home run into Citi Field’s second deck in left field, then take it back because I couldn’t believe my own memory. But it’s true: This actually happened. It was 2009, so I don’t think I recognized how special it was at the time. How many home runs have been hit into the second deck in left field total?

Huge hat tip to Joe.

New Mostly Mets Podcast

Because you love minutiae and didn’t get enough of it in that Chuck James post earlier. With Toby and Patrick:

On iTunes here.

Rundown:
01:30 – Voicemail.
— Torres has ADHD
— $ on MLB backups
Email
11:00 – Carlos Beltran Checks In
13:30 – Are Relievers the market inefficiency?
20:15 – Power and Ruben Tejada
Twitter Qs
28:00 – Rauch & Danny Ray Cartoon
32:00 – Over/Under for Kirk Nieuwenhuis’ Arrival
39:00 – Getting Back to contention quickly
42:00 – What’s in your gift basket?
50:30 – Breakfast sandwich meats
58:00 – Obligatory Ronny Paulino discussion/Also money

Mets sign Chuck James, and it’s that time of year and that type of year when we cover this stuff like it’s important

No one has ever accused TedQuarters of ignoring roster minutiae. The Mets signed left-handed pitcher Chuck James to a Minor League deal today and invited him to Major League Spring Training.

You may remember James from his time as a wholly unmemorable Braves starter in 2006 and 2007, before he tore his labrum and rotator cuff in 2008, missed the entire 2009 season recovering from surgery and wound up in the Nationals’ system in 2010.

James pitched out of the bullpen for the Twins’ Triple-A club in Rochester in 2011 and did a fine a job of it, posting a 2.30 ERA and striking out more than a batter per inning. He struggled in his 10 1/3-inning stint with the big-league Twins, but James pitched effectively against both lefty and righty hitters in the Minors, like an elusive “crossover” guy. And he pitched 62 2/3 innings in only 38 appearances, meaning — based on division alone — he’s apt to throw more than one inning at a time.

I’d say it’s better than even money James winds up in the Mets’ Major League bullpen next year, if not to start the season then at some point not long thereafter.

But wait, there’s more! If the Mets need to save money as badly as we all think they need to save money, they can call on James for double-duty. As recently as January, 2007 — after his successful first big-league season in 2006 — James worked as a glass installer for his local Lowe’s. Maybe that’ll prove useful, what with the Citi Field wall reconstruction and all.

Also, James was once bitten by a poisonous copperhead but elected not to seek treatment. “I decided I wasn’t going to die, so I didn’t do anything,” he said, apparently not realizing at the time he was lobbing a wide-open alley-oop pass for jokes about the Mets’ medical staff years later.

Various Rey Ordonez-themed YouTube finds

Yeah so maybe I spent some of this afternoon trying to track Rey Ordonez.

Turns out Rey Ordonez’s son Rey Jr. is committed to FIU to play baseball and is expected to be drafted in June. Here he is being interviewed in April by Rene Pedrosa of La Ley:

Here’s a band called The Isotopes playing a song about Rey Ordonez:

Here’s Rey Ordonez on a leather couch being interviewed in Spanish by three beautiful women. Anyone who speaks more Spanish than I do can feel free to chime in with what’s going on here:

Since no one asked

Don’t ask me why I started going through the league splits year-by-year on baseball-reference.com to see which innings produce the highest offensive totals. Truth be told I can’t even remember. But it turns out the innings in which hitters generally produce the best OPSes are the first, fourth, and sixth.

The order changes every year, but those are almost always the top three, which makes a lot of sense: A team’s best hitters usually hit in the first inning. They’ll often come up again (with a better sense of what the pitcher is throwing) in the fourth, and the sixth must be the perfect window in which the best hitters most frequently face tiring starting pitchers.

Every year, hitters in the ninth inning produce the lowest OPS. Often it’s about 30 points lower than the next lowest inning. Presumably this is because Proven Closers come in and Shorten The Game. In 2011, Major Leaguers in total posted a .728 OPS, but only a .665 mark in the ninth inning.

Anyway, that’s all trivia. I bring it up because of this, which is also trivia: Carlos Beltran — he of the .857 career OPS — has a .941 career OPS in the ninth inning.

I don’t really know what that means and I suspect it means very little beyond what we already know about Carlos Beltran being awesome. But neither Derek Jeter nor David Ortiz nor Macier Izturis nor Albert Pujols nor Dustin Pedroia nor Chipper Jones nor Reggie Jackson nor Edgar Renteria nor most other reputedly clutch guys Twitter and I could come up have ninth-inning OPSes that match their career lines. Most don’t even come close.

Obviously there are a bunch of others out there, and obviously there’s a whole long conversation about clutchness that I’m not eager to revisit here — again, this is all trivia — but the only two other guys I found with ninth-inning OPSes better than their career marks are Evan Longoria and Tony Gwynn. And neither’s ninth-inning uptick is as severe as Beltran’s.

Supposedly the Rockies are making a move for our man. That’d be fine by me. I’m still sort of maintaining the vague hope that Sandy Alderson can pull off a Christmas miracle and Vernon-Wells Jason Bay on someone then sign Beltran with the freed up cash, but I probably need to confront the very real possibility that it’s not happening.