Flew away howling on the yellow moon

Mike Pelfrey, Mets closer?

This almost certainly will not happen, but it was a possibility within the past week, when some team officials suggested converting Pelfrey to that role next season. The discussions went far enough that Pelfrey was included in them.

“Would you be willing to be the closer next year?” Terry Collins asked the pitcher, according to someone who was briefed on, but did not witness or participate in, the conversation.

Andy Martino, N.Y. Daily News.

Interesting. Of course, since we’re getting the news at least third-hand, there’s some chance this has been telephoned to death and Collins actually asked Pelfrey, “Is it thrilling to see the toaster in here?”

But assuming the conversation actually went down the way the article says it did, it’s a thought worth considering. Many Mets fans won’t believe this, but Pelfrey could very well make for a solid closer. Not only is that role overrated, but starters’ stats tend to improve dramatically when they move to bullpen roles. A pitcher like Pelfrey with a limited arsenal could likely dial up his fastball a notch and rely less on his shaky secondary pitches if he were used in shorter stints.

Except — and as Martino suggests later in the article — Pelfrey’s biggest value to the Mets lies in his durability, and his ability to throw 200 league-average innings every season probably helps the Mets’ bullpen as much as his presence would.

And of course, the first time closer-Pelf allowed a bloop single and a game-tying home run, armchair psychologists everywhere would rush to diagnose his obvious lack of the much-lauded closer mentality.

I covered this a few weeks ago: Unless Sandy Alderson suddenly and miraculously finds a whole host of healthy dudes ready to start games in the Majors by next season, Mets fans should probably prepare for another season with Mike Pelfrey in the rotation. Yes, he’s boring to watch on his best nights and woefully frustrating on his worst, and no, he hasn’t magically started pitching like an ace since the Mets made him their Opening Day starter in 2011.

He’s a guy, and the Mets’ rotation needs guys. Best-case scenario, midway through next season the Mets have four starters throwing better than Pelfrey and Jeurys Familia or Matt Harvey banging down the door from Triple-A, and they can try Pelfrey in the bullpen then. From here, though, it doesn’t seem likely the Mets will have five healthy guys better than Pelfrey to open 2012 in the big-league rotation.

French lessons

I joked about Jeff Francoeur during last night’s taping of the Mostly Mets podcast. I want to clarify. This is that:

With the unemployment rate so high it seems in bad taste to suggest that Francoeur’s continued presence in Major League outfields means anyone can find a job. I understand that it’s not easy to find gainful employment at any time and especially this particular one, and by no means did I intend to imply that if Jeff Francoeur could continue flailing his way into big-league lineups then everyone else could, too. I hope it didn’t come off that way.

What I meant to say is that Jeff Francoeur’s continued presence in Major League outfields should serve as an inspiration to all people, regardless of working status. It’s something bigger than work anyway.

In times of struggle, we doubt ourselves. At least I do. And when you get down, it takes a lot to convince yourself you do not suck at whatever it is you’re attempting, that you have the capacity for greatness. But let Jeff Francoeur serve as a reminder that you don’t need to be great to succeed, you only need to occasionally not suck long enough to convince someone that you do not totally suck. Persistence and one or two marketable skills should get you there.

When the world kicks you to the curb, why reach for the sky? That’s an unobtainable goal. Look to Jeff Francoeur. Pull yourself upright and try to appear presentable for a few weeks or a month. and put stock in the redeeming graces of randomness and good fortune.

So little of what we do in life is as closely and accurately monitored with objective data as a baseball player’s performance is. As far as I know there’s nothing like wOBA to rate doctors, lawyers, teachers, scientists or web editors, and certainly nothing like it to show how well we use our free time, how we relate, how we love.

Francoeur’s having a good year in 2011, but there’s a ton of evidence to show he won’t keep it up. In spite of that, people keep giving him press conferences, contract extensions and fawning newspaper features. If Francoeur can find sympathetic souls to rationalize away his walk rate and career OPS+, there should be nothing in our own relatively uncharted pasts we cannot overcome.

It’d be nice if we could wake up every morning confident we could endeavor whatever it is we set out to do with the ability of Tim Lincecum and enjoy all the same success. But it’s sometimes hard to be so bold. Those times we need Francoeur. Those times, we need only look ourselves in the mirror and muster up the courage to not suck for a long enough stretch for fate to smile on us again.

Oh, that smile.

Twitter Q&A type thing, part 1

I don’t hate prospects; I really don’t. (Jeff’s kidding when he calls me a jerk, btw. At least I hope he is.) In fact I am en route to Binghamton to talk to prospects as we speak.

It is undoubtedly important for teams to develop deep farm systems and build from within. It’s the best way to build a sustainable winner in baseball.

What annoys me is the impatience with which fans seem to track prospects and the authority with which they purport to scout them. Even for baseball teams armed with legions of professional scouts, predicting which young players will turn out good and which will suck is a game of educated guesswork.

It seems sometimes fans lose sight of how difficult the road to the Majors can be, how unlikely young players are to ever become superstars, and how much more valuable a Major League contributor is to his team than some teenager that shows promise for three years down the road. I do it myself all the time.

I wrote more about this back in May.

Fun fact: On a windy day in July, my wife and I drove out to the Hamptons, where my sister was staying for the weekend. I brought a kite my parents had given me for some occasion a few years ago. I hoped it would be a fun thing to do with my three-year-old nephew.

I put the kite together and took it out to the beach, then proceeded to run around like a goon for the next hour trying to get it airborne. There was plenty of wind, too.

Then to make matters worse, some smug bastard in a linen shirt came out onto the beach with a kite of his own and got it flying without any effort whatsoever, then paraded past me with his kite in the air, pretending he was just nonchalantly flying a kite even though he was clearly showing off.

Long story short, if kite flying becomes a professional sport around here don’t look for me on the leaderboards anytime soon. I maintain that the kite was defective.

Anyway, in terms of popular Thai sports, I much prefer sepak takraw:

Mets sign a bunch of guys

Last night was the MLB deadline to sign draft picks, which is now apparently a big Twitter deal. The Mets signed a bunch of draft picks, several of them to bonuses above the recommended slot figure. Toby Hyde calls this “a good day to be a Mets fan” and I’m inclined to agree. I don’t know a damn thing about the particular young players involved, but it seems like the process was good, and that’s the best we can really hope for.

Here comes that Dude again

Lucas Duda hit another home run last night. It looked sort of like this — not exactly like this, but since I can’t show you last night’s for a couple of days, I’ll just embed this one again:

Look at that. Watch it again. Revel in Lucas Duda’s grandeur.

When the Mets called up Ike Davis last season (was it really just last season?), Jerry Manuel praised his “easy power.” I liked that.

Duda appears to have the easiest power of any young player we’ve seen in Flushing in years, with a big uppercut swing as uncomplicated as his public persona. He is 6’4″ and 255 pounds and capable of smashing 450-foot home runs, but in interviews, he is almost bashful. His teammates joke about his reticence. Fans, broadcasters, bloggers and beat reporters seem eager to give him a nickname: The Dude, the Big Lebowski, the Lumberjack, the Liger.

He has all the makings of a folk hero. But will it last?

Plugging Duda’s remarkable Triple-A totals from 2010 and 2011 into the Minor League equivalency calculator yields a Major League line of .257/.334/.480, not terribly far off his .260/.328/.454 career mark in the bigs. And his small sample of at-bats in Buffalo in 2011 run through the same tool turn out a .248/.348/.467 mark, distinct mostly in batting average from his .287/.358/.472 stint with the Mets this season.

Obviously any estimator like that paints in broad strokes; I mean only to point out that there’s plenty of precedent in Duda’s Minor League resume for the production we’re now seeing.

He’s 25, so he’s likely still got a bit of improvement ahead of him. And if you want to be nice about it, you might cut him some slack for his awful first handful of games in the Majors and bump up his career OPS a tick.

In any case, if the bat’s really this good, it plays just about anywhere. Problem is, in the coming years the Mets likely won’t have much room for Duda at first base — his natural position and the one he has been playing every night of late.

Davis plays first, is a year younger than Duda and has done more than Duda to show he belongs in the Majors. There has long been talk that Davis could move to right field, but that move seems unlikely to happen anytime soon given the ankle injury that ended his 2011 season. Provided he is healthy, Davis should be back at first for the Mets in 2012 and beyond.

Terry Collins admitted last night that he had to consider using Duda in right field moving forward because Duda will likely be competing for time in that spot next spring. Might as well get to it. You can find someone else to play first. Nick Evans is still on the team, right?

It’s reasonable to doubt whether Duda could handle right field defensively, but there’s no time like right now to figure out if he can. The ability to pencil in Duda’s bat to the Mets’ 2012 lineup would give Sandy Alderson more flexibility with his offseason resources, and give Mets fans the promise of more awesome moonshots to come.