Justin Turner: A starter?

Over at Amazin’ Avenue, Eric Simon examines Justin Turner’s rookie season. While the conclusion makes sense — Turner should be relegated to the bench with Daniel Murphy starting at second and Lucas Duda at first — I’d add a couple of points to defend our man Turner:

First, though Turner’s batting average on balls in play may have been extremely high before June, it was also extremely low in June, and now back up in July. Across the largest possible sample — the whole season — it’s a very reasonable .312; these things have a way of evening out.

Turner’s .277/.343/.365 line does not appear to be aided by luck, and is in fact slightly better than the Major League average .256/.319/.379 mark for second basemen in 2011. By wOBA, Turner has been right around the middle of the pack of second basemen with more than 300 plate appearances.

Of course, the idea is to have good hitters at every position, not just average ones. And if Murphy can capably field the keystone, the Mets might very well have that in house. But Turner — based on his first half-season, at least — appears more than adequate in a utility role or filling the short half of a platoon at second.

That’s worth something. Remember how we all went on and on about how teams should be able to find a cost-controlled guy for the Alex Cora job that’s better than Alex Cora so they don’t have to pay Alex Cora? Here you go: Justin Turner.

And yeah, I realize that saying a guy is better than Alex Cora is pretty much the definition of damning with faint praise, plus none of this contradicts any of what Simon said in his original post. I guess I’m saying we should be thankful that the Mets are now in a situation wherein we can legitimately argue that a 26-year-old second baseman with an above-average OPS for his position should be benched, because it shows how quickly the new administration (and the last one in its final days) have worked to foster organizational depth.

I’d still give Turner some starts against lefties to keep him in the mix, though he hasn’t demonstrated any platoon split to speak of. I’ll add that it’s funny how first impressions work: It seems like there are a lot of Mets fans ready to anoint Turner second-baseman-for-life and send Duda packing on the next bus to Buffalo.

Just wondering

This is a pointless hypothetical, but I’m just wondering:

If Jose Reyes were doing this for, I don’t know, the Brewers, and there was talk that the Mets wanted to pursue him as a free agent this offseason, how do you think you’d feel about it?

Because I’ll say this: If that were the case, knowing what I know about myself, how I often approach baseball and how I fixate on stuff, I fear I might be filling up this site with long, boring screeds about why the Mets shouldn’t be pursuing Reyes.

I’d point to the history of injuries, mishandled or not, and say how bad an idea it would be to get involved in a long-term deal with a player that has already demonstrated a shaky-at-best ability to stay on the field. And I’d argue that signing a guy to a huge contract coming off a batting average-fueled career year represented a potential buy-high mistake.

Of course, I’ve watched Reyes play this season, so I’m biased toward the man and can’t actually think that. Plus, even if Reyes comes back to Earth a bit — as he almost has to — he’s still an elite 28-year-old shortstop, not the type of free agent that hits the market very often.

Ultimately, I suppose, it comes down to how much money and how many years it will take to lock him up. Obviously.

Wake me up when Carlos Beltran gets traded

Fun fact: I got kicked out of the National Honor Society in high school. Among other transgressions, I used to show up to the “mandatory,” rarely used free tutoring availability we provided younger students, tape a sign somewhere that said, “wake if you need tutoring,” then put my head down on the desk. It was a wise-assy thing to do; I can hardly sleep in my own bed, no less on some hard desk in a high-school math office. I just wanted to make some stupid point about my having to give up my one free period for a service no one ever took advantage of. Meanwhile I could have just not shown up at all, or not applied to the National Honor Society in the first place. Confusing time, high school.

Anyway, in the last few hours, the news cycle on Carlos Beltran trade rumors has turned over three times. He has been speculatively traded, then not traded, to the Braves, Giants, Phillies, Rangers and Red Sox. The Mets are getting back a top prospect, or not a top prospect, or a collection of mid-level prospects. The Mets could sweeten the deal with another player, or they will refuse to trade anyone but Beltran because this is by no means a fire sale.

The trade deadline is supposed to be good for traffic around these parts, but it sure hasn’t been here, so presumably you’ve caught on by now that I don’t get too worked up over all the rumors and speculation this time of year. Consider this the blogging equivalent of me putting my head down on the desk in the math office. I don’t care to continue keeping up with the Carlos Beltran trade rumors. We’ll see what the Mets get back in a trade for Beltran if and when the Mets trade Beltran.

Of course, again I’m full of it. I can’t sleep on desks and I can’t pull myself away from this nonsense every July. Just allow me to maintain some sense of ironic detachment, is all.

Who hits where? Does anyone care?

Before yesterday’s game, Terry Collins asserted that he did not feel David Wright needed to be eased back into the lineup, but that Carlos Beltran would still be hitting third in tonight’s game.

That seems to put Wright batting cleanup against right-hander Chris Volstad.

I don’t want to go too crazy over this because a lot of work has been done to show that batting orders don’t mean all that much. But I wonder if a case could be made for Wright hitting second, stacking the Mets’ best hitters at the top of their lineup.

Of course, before I go on I should note that a lot of this depends on who’s playing first and second base. Daniel Murphy should play every day. We’ll see how Collins handles it, but with Lucas Duda still around and hitting well of late, it seems like Murphy should play second against right-handers with Duda at first. Justin Turner can play second against lefties with Murphy sliding to first, effectively platooning Turner and Duda*.

Does that sound right? It would mean regularly moving Murph around the right side of the infield — which sounds a bit scary, but he’s already been shuttled around the diamond most of the season and has generally handled it well. I suppose Turner could enter late in games for defense, or pick up some starts with groundball-heavy guys like Jon Niese and R.A. Dickey on the mound.

Anyway, I guess the way I’m thinking is this:

Against righties:                              Against lefties:
Reyes — 6                                        Reyes — 6
Wright — 5                                        Wright — 5
Beltran — 9                                        Beltran — 9
Murphy — 4                                       Murphy — 3
Pagan — 8                                         Pagan — 8
Duda — 3                                          “Jason Bay” — 7
“Bay” — 7                                           Paulino — 2
Thole — 2                                          Turner — 4
Wait, hold on. This is a ridiculous exercise. First of all, Wright and Murphy could easily be swapped and then no one would freak out about a non-traditional No. 2 hitter batting behind Reyes. Since Beltran, Reyes and Pagan all hit switch, it wouldn’t even ruin the very Jerry Manuel lefty-righty thing I’ve got going on in the lineup against righties.

But more importantly, am I operating in the real world or fantasyland here? The Mets aren’t going to bat David Wright second, right? So if I’m taking it that far, why am I still operating with Bay in the lineup against pitchers of both hands? Why’s the pitcher batting ninth?

Seriously, just ignore me. None of this matters. We’ll find out the lineup in like an hour.

*- Unless Jason Bay’s hamstring or general ineffectiveness opens up more time for Duda in left field.

Rotational stability

The Mets’ starting rotation has not been particularly good in 2011. The best pitchers on the staff have thrown like league-average innings eaters, and the worst have thrown like Mike Pelfrey. They have combined for a 3.89 ERA, which, though slightly better than the NL average of 3.92 for starters, is underwhelming when you consider that they pitch half their games in Citi Field.

Still, if the Mets starters have not been stellar, they have been remarkably (knocking wood) stable in 2011. Since Dillon Gee replaced Chris Young in the rotation in early May, none has missed a start. And — though this is likely partly due to the change in managers as well as the change in personnel — Mets starters seem to have cut out the disastrously short appearances we became accustomed to in the last couple of seasons.

In 98 games so far, the Mets have had nine starts shorter than five innings. Of those, only two starts have been less than four innings: D.J. Carrasco’s 3 2/3-inning spot start in April, and R.A. Dickey’s 2 2/3-inning effort in Chicago in May when he tore his plantar fascia.

Last year, Oliver Perez alone had three starts of less than four innings. So did John Maine. By my count, the 2010 Mets totaled 28 starts of less than five innings and 14 starts of less than four.

Of course, it’s only July. There’s plenty of time for pitchers to break down, trades to cost the team some of its more reliable arms, and September callups to muddy up the picture.

And it’s worth noting that last year’s staff was better than this year’s, stability or not. Thanks to the presence of Johan Santana, a great season from Dickey and an up year from Pelfrey, that rotation finished with a 3.80 ERA. And this year’s starters have only average .1 inning more per start than the 2010 set.

Just seemed worth noting is all.

The Mets appear to need better starters for the front end of their rotation. But I wonder if a case could be made that, given the general flakiness of pitchers, a team with a good offensive core might be well served tooling up with more great hitters and building a deep rotation of pitchers good enough to keep the club in games while the offense scores runs. Innings-eaters are the new market inefficiency, or something like that.

Might hit a snag come playoff time, of course, but then there’s always a lot of randomness at play in October.

New Mostly Mets podcast

This one lacks that certain me-ish flair. But the Sand Gnats went 12 innings last night so Toby couldn’t start until late, and I had to wake up at 5:30 a.m. today to drive my wife to school so I could have the car to get to the game. I know you thought the life of a sandwich blogger was all glamor but there’s a lot of driving my wife around involved too. Anyway, listen to the podcast. Especially you, Swedish people. Patrick is really counting on you.

Exit Carlos Beltran?

Carlos Beltran approached the plate in the ninth inning Thursday to the familiar fanfare of David Y Abraham’s “El Esta Aqui” and a hearty ovation from about half of the 20,000 sweaty fans left in Citi Field.

Beltran fouled Mitchell Boggs’ first pitch back, and the crowd booed when a man with a glove in the first row of the second deck mishandled the ball and let it drop to the seats below.

He laid off Boggs’ next offering, a low fastball.

“Imagine he strikes out looking!” said someone in the press box.

Beltran lifted the next pitch to left field. Matt Holliday took a couple of steps back, then charged forward. The outfielder steadied himself under the ball, collected it, and retired Beltran.

As the best center fielder in Mets’ history jogged off the field, a few fans behind the dugout stood and applauded. He stepped down the stairs to the Mets bench and pulled off his batting gloves and helmet.

Ten minutes later, Terry Collins spoke to reporters in the Citi Field media room.

“I deal in reality,” he said. “I know it’s news, I know it’s talked about, I know it may happen…. Right now, he’s hitting third tomorrow in Miami.”

Reporters gathered around Beltran’s locker as one by one his teammates emerged from back rooms of the clubhouse and changed into Hawaiian shirts for the trip to Florida. They separated into small clutches and talked about old colleagues and dream jobs as they waited.

Finally Beltran appeared, in workout attire. The crowd broke to let him pass. He walked to his locker, looked into it briefly, then turned, paused, and began answering the same series of questions he answers every night.

“Honestly, I’m not thinking about that, man,” he said. “I’m focused on playing games.”

“I gave everything I have for this organization. I have no regrets.”

“All that we have here are rumors.”

Indeed. I’ll hold off on the requiems until the man is actually traded.

Sandwiches of Citi Field: Beef empanada

I use a very liberal definition of the term “sandwich,” which makes the quest to eat and review every sandwich available at Citi Field a massively ambitious, multi-season project. Also, because I was on vacation for the Mets’ last long homestand and was sick for the Phillies series, this is my first time at the park in a month. So I have been remiss in my Citi Field sandwich-eating duties.

Anyway, an empanada is a protein wrapped in a starch and it’s portable, so it’s a sandwich in my book. The beef empanada is available at multiple concessions around Citi Field. This particular one was purchased from a stand along the third-base line on the Excelsior level.

The pastry on the outside is good; flaky and warm, and just a touch chewy on the inside. But the beef filling tastes mostly like salt, and there are unidentifiable bits of foodstuff in there that, though not unpleasant tasting, don’t make the product more appetizing.

It’s only $4.75 — reasonable by ballpark standards, if not by empanada standards — so I suppose I should not complain, but there’s not much food here. There’s only a thin layer of beef inside, and I am left considering my next ballpark sandwich. The empanada might make a nice choice for someone not hungry enough for a full meal at the park, but honestly, if I were looking for some not-huge portion of salty-meat-wrapped-in-bread at Citi Field, I’d probably just go for a hot dog next time.

Actually, I might go for a hot dog this time.