People ask me “Is poker luck?” and “Is investing luck?”

The answer is, not at all. But sample sizes matter. On any given day a good investor or a good poker player can lose money. Any stock investment can turn out to be a loser no matter how large the edge appears. Same for a poker hand. One poker tournament isn’t very different from a coin-flipping contest and neither is six months of investment results.

On that basis luck plays a role. But over time — over thousands of hands against a variety of players and over hundreds of investments in a variety of market environments — skill wins out.

– David Einhorn, Speech at the Value Investing Congress.

<3.

I for one welcome our new hedge-fund overlords.

Via Patrick Flood.

Justin Berg, no relation, threw 12 pitches against the Mets last night. All of them were balls. Big League Stew puts the performance in historical context.

And I suppose this was inevitable:

If you’re new around these parts, that’s a reference to this.

Francisco Rodriguez’s $17.5 million vesting option, activated for 2012 if the closer finishes 55 games this year, is commonly seen as an albatross, a major drag on his trade value. But for a variety of reasons, the clause is not as problematic as it seems, and Rodriguez might be far easier to move than conventional wisdom suggests.

The closer’s open-mindedness will help: Although Rodriguez has a clause blocking trades to 10 undisclosed teams, a source close to him said that he will consider any potential deal that is presented to him. Rodriguez is also open to waiving the vesting option in the event an acquiring team wants to negotiate a multi-year extension, the source said.

– Andy Martino, N.Y. Daily News.

This ray of sunshine got lost in the Einhorn news this morning. And the language here means this might not really be news — he’ll consider waiving his no-trade clause, and he’s “open to waiving the vesting option in the event an acquiring team wants to negotiate a multi-year extension.”

So Rodriguez is open to being overpaid for the next several years instead of just being overpaid next year. That seems to make sense. I am also open to that.

Regardless, it’s good news that Rodriguez would waive his no-trade clause at all. And if — as the executive quoted in Martino’s story suggests — the Mets could get something of value in return for Rodriguez, they should look to deal their closer regardless of where they are in the standings come the trade deadline.

I bring this up a bunch, but as a reminder: The whole “buyer vs. seller” thing is silly. Those are labels. At the trade deadline and all other times, an MLB front office should work to improve its club by considering all possible deals.

If the Mets can find a way to get out from Rodriguez’s 2012 option and get something of real value in return, it shouldn’t matter if they’re within a few games of the Wild Card. Teams desperate for relief help tend to overpay for it at the deadline, and the Mets can find someone to close out games — perhaps not as effectively as Rodriguez, but you’re talking about 25-30 innings tops over the rest of the season.

Well-run teams can find ways to put together good bullpens on the cheap, allowing them to allocate payroll elsewhere. If the Mets can find a way to spin Rodriguez into a useful young player, they can replace him with a less expensive pitcher and reinvest his salary in a position more difficult to fill. Like, I don’t know, say, shortstop.

The Internet is ablaze this morning with talk that some guy is set to become the new minority owner of the Mets. And despite the rampant speculation of several months ago, it is neither Donald Trump nor Michael Bloomberg nor Ralph Lauren nor Lady Gaga nor any other famously rich person. It is David Einhorn, a hedge-fund manager from Westchester.

Oddly, back on Feb. 11, when I wrote how unlikely it was that any rich person we’d all heard of would purchase the Mets, I suggested as a likely candidate “some hedge-fund manager from Chappaqua.” Einhorn’s Wikipedia page does not say where in Westchester he lives, but I’m going to pat myself on the back right now for nailing it on the whole not-Donald-Trump thing.

The press release just came through so looks like the deal is done. My friends who have real-guy jobs sound pretty bullish about Einhorn, and on top of that, the good news is it provides the team some financial stability. Here’s the release:

The New York Mets today announced that David Einhorn has been selected as the team’s preferred partner and that the Mets and Mr. Einhorn have entered into exclusive negotiations with respect to a minority, non-operating investment in the team.  The $200 million personal investment by Mr. Einhorn is subject to the negotiation of a mutually acceptable definitive agreement for the transaction, as well as required approvals by Major League Baseball. The parties expect to enter into definitive agreements by late June.

“We are very excited about David joining our ownership group for several reasons,” said Fred Wilpon, Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, New York Mets.  “David’s investment immediately improves the franchise’s financial position.  Equally important, David’s intelligence, integrity and success in both business and civic affairs provides us with another perspective in evaluating what is best for this organization and our fans, and we welcome his input.  In partnership with David, we look forward to achieving our ultimate goal of again becoming World Series champions.”

Mr. Einhorn stated, “Having an opportunity to become part of the Mets franchise is exciting beyond my wildest childhood dreams.  I spent my first seven years living in New Jersey and rooting for the Mets.  In 1975, I even dressed in a homemade jersey as a Met for Halloween.  I have been a baseball fan for my entire life and have enjoyed teaching the game as the coach of my daughter’s little league team.  I look forward to partnering with the Wilpon and Katz families through the good seasons, the tough seasons and especially the championship seasons.”

Mr. Einhorn is President of Greenlight Capital, Inc., a private investment firm which he co-founded in January 1996, and is Chairman of the Board of Greenlight Capital Re, Ltd.  Along with his wife, Mr. Einhorn formed the Einhorn Family Charitable Trust, whose mission is to help people get along better.  He also serves on the Board of Directors of The Michael J. Fox Foundation for Parkinson’s Research and the Robin Hood Foundation.

And the more important thing right now is we get to make a ton of Ace Ventura related jokes. They’re going to get old really fast but let’s go to town today.

Evans has been up since May 18, in which time the Mets have played six games. He has seen two plate appearances.

Let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves.

– Sandy Alderson.

Following the discussion around the Mets since Fred Wilpon’s media blitz has been nearly impossible. Every pundit and columnist and blogger and fan has an opinion on Wilpon’s comments themselves, the team’s response, and what the comments mean for the future of the club. But it seems like everyone’s sort of taking snippets of quotes and running with them, drawing conclusions without context and not necessarily based on fact, then assuming those conclusions and advancing in conversation.

We are, to paraphrase Alderson, getting too far ahead of ourselves.

The Mets lost last night and looked miserable in the process, and it’s tempting to go all post hoc ergo propter hoc and assume Wilpon’s comments distracted them into terrible play. Maybe it did. Probably not.

Memorial Day approaches. If you haven’t been following, that’s the arbitrary cutoff point used here and elsewhere to determine when the early returns on a baseball season can be deemed meaningful.

And so we beat on…