French lessons

I joked about Jeff Francoeur during last night’s taping of the Mostly Mets podcast. I want to clarify. This is that:

With the unemployment rate so high it seems in bad taste to suggest that Francoeur’s continued presence in Major League outfields means anyone can find a job. I understand that it’s not easy to find gainful employment at any time and especially this particular one, and by no means did I intend to imply that if Jeff Francoeur could continue flailing his way into big-league lineups then everyone else could, too. I hope it didn’t come off that way.

What I meant to say is that Jeff Francoeur’s continued presence in Major League outfields should serve as an inspiration to all people, regardless of working status. It’s something bigger than work anyway.

In times of struggle, we doubt ourselves. At least I do. And when you get down, it takes a lot to convince yourself you do not suck at whatever it is you’re attempting, that you have the capacity for greatness. But let Jeff Francoeur serve as a reminder that you don’t need to be great to succeed, you only need to occasionally not suck long enough to convince someone that you do not totally suck. Persistence and one or two marketable skills should get you there.

When the world kicks you to the curb, why reach for the sky? That’s an unobtainable goal. Look to Jeff Francoeur. Pull yourself upright and try to appear presentable for a few weeks or a month. and put stock in the redeeming graces of randomness and good fortune.

So little of what we do in life is as closely and accurately monitored with objective data as a baseball player’s performance is. As far as I know there’s nothing like wOBA to rate doctors, lawyers, teachers, scientists or web editors, and certainly nothing like it to show how well we use our free time, how we relate, how we love.

Francoeur’s having a good year in 2011, but there’s a ton of evidence to show he won’t keep it up. In spite of that, people keep giving him press conferences, contract extensions and fawning newspaper features. If Francoeur can find sympathetic souls to rationalize away his walk rate and career OPS+, there should be nothing in our own relatively uncharted pasts we cannot overcome.

It’d be nice if we could wake up every morning confident we could endeavor whatever it is we set out to do with the ability of Tim Lincecum and enjoy all the same success. But it’s sometimes hard to be so bold. Those times we need Francoeur. Those times, we need only look ourselves in the mirror and muster up the courage to not suck for a long enough stretch for fate to smile on us again.

Oh, that smile.

Twitter Q&A type thing, part 1

I don’t hate prospects; I really don’t. (Jeff’s kidding when he calls me a jerk, btw. At least I hope he is.) In fact I am en route to Binghamton to talk to prospects as we speak.

It is undoubtedly important for teams to develop deep farm systems and build from within. It’s the best way to build a sustainable winner in baseball.

What annoys me is the impatience with which fans seem to track prospects and the authority with which they purport to scout them. Even for baseball teams armed with legions of professional scouts, predicting which young players will turn out good and which will suck is a game of educated guesswork.

It seems sometimes fans lose sight of how difficult the road to the Majors can be, how unlikely young players are to ever become superstars, and how much more valuable a Major League contributor is to his team than some teenager that shows promise for three years down the road. I do it myself all the time.

I wrote more about this back in May.

Fun fact: On a windy day in July, my wife and I drove out to the Hamptons, where my sister was staying for the weekend. I brought a kite my parents had given me for some occasion a few years ago. I hoped it would be a fun thing to do with my three-year-old nephew.

I put the kite together and took it out to the beach, then proceeded to run around like a goon for the next hour trying to get it airborne. There was plenty of wind, too.

Then to make matters worse, some smug bastard in a linen shirt came out onto the beach with a kite of his own and got it flying without any effort whatsoever, then paraded past me with his kite in the air, pretending he was just nonchalantly flying a kite even though he was clearly showing off.

Long story short, if kite flying becomes a professional sport around here don’t look for me on the leaderboards anytime soon. I maintain that the kite was defective.

Anyway, in terms of popular Thai sports, I much prefer sepak takraw:

Ahhh…

Marshall, the former Dodgers outfielder now managing the Chico Outlaws of the independent North American Baseball League, was suspended three games for fighting Monday with Tony Phillips.

Yep, that Tony Phillips, the one who played in the major leagues for 18 seasons. And is still playing for the independent Yuma Scorpions — managed by Jose Canseco….

Marshall may regrettably be best remembered as the player who sat out a game for “general soreness” and dated Go-Go’s lead singer Belinda Carlisle.

Steve Dilbeck, L.A. Times.

Ahhh… Wait, no. First of all… No, no, first of all — OK, OK…

Yeah, there’s just nothing I can add.

How much are flights to Yuma these days?

I couldn’t come up with a better headline about sign-stealing that implied how much I hated the movie Signs

At Grantland, Jonah Keri takes a thorough look at the allegations that the Blue Jays have been stealing signs with the help of a mysterious Man in White in the Rogers Centre center field seats.

I planned to write something with similar themes on the same topic, but Keri does a better job than I would have anyway, so check that out. The crux of it:

1) There’s not much evidence the Blue Jays benefited from sign stealing.
2) Every team tries to steal signs, as they should. It’s not against the rules, and players are going to do everything they can do gain competitive advantages.
3) There’s just no way you can chalk up Jose Bautista’s improvement to sign-stealing because lots of players have presumably enjoyed stolen signs before and very, very few — including all the other Blue Jays — have improved as rapidly as Bautista has.
4) I really hated that movie Signs.

And now they speak in whispers low

So in the amazingly unlikely event Dan Uggla breaks DiMaggio’s record, who writes the song about him? I vote Cee-Lo Green. He’s from Atlanta, he’s both popular and accessible, and like Uggla he’s a role model for stocky people everywhere. Of course, I’d probably vote for Cee-Lo Green no matter who broke the mark.

I had a doctor’s appointment this afternoon and had to leave the office early. Enjoy the weather if you’re in New York.

How odd is Uggla’s streak?

Hitting streaks come mostly due to randomness and good fortune. Think about it: Plenty of hitters wind up with more than 162 hits in a season, averaging more than a hit a game. It stands to reason that every so often a player will put together a run of 30 or so straight games with a hit by chance alone.

We know how well-struck balls sometimes find fielders’ gloves and dribblers sometimes squeak through holes in the infield. Sure, occasionally a guy enjoys a hitting streak when he happens to be going well, but plenty of hitters take an ofer in the midst of a hot stretch due to a bad luck or good discipline, and many times we’ve seen guys lauded for very empty hitting streaks reaching into the double digits.

That’s all a long-winded qualifier to say I don’t put too much stock in Dan Uggla’s current hitting streak except as the entertaining baseball novelty that it is. And Uggla’s run in particular is interesting because Uggla does not profile at all as the type of hitter to produce such a streak. He walks a lot, he strikes out a ton, and he never posts a high batting average.

Using baseball-reference.com and the Daily News‘ complete list of players with 30-game hitting streaks, I compared Uggla’s season and career batting averages to the other men who have hit in at least 30 straight games.

Turns out Uggla is the lowest in both categories — by a wide margin in the former. Of the 32 guys on the list, 26 hit at least .300 for the season.

Player Year Hitting streak Season average Career average
Joe DiMaggio 1941 56 .357 .325
Pete Rose 1978 44 .302 .303
George Sisler 1922 41 .420 .340
Ty Cobb 1911 40 .420 .366
Paul Molitor 1987 39 .353 .306
Jimmy Rollins 2006 38 .277 .272
Tommy Holmes 1945 37 .352 .302
Chase Utley 2006 35 .309 .292
Luis Castillo 2002 35 .305 .290
Ty Cobb 1917 35 .383 .366
Benito Santiago 1987 34 .300 .263
Dom DiMaggio 1949 34 .307 .298
George McQuinn 1938 34 .324 .276
Hal Chase 1907 33 .287 .291
Heinie Manush 1933 33 .336 .330
Rogers Hornsby 1922 33 .401 .358
Vladimir Guerrero 1999 31 .316 .318
Ken Landreaux 1980 31 .281 .268
Rico Carty 1970 31 .366 .299
Willie Davis 1969 31 .311 .279
Sam Rice 1924 31 .334 .322
Nap Lajoie 1906 31 .355 .338
Moises Alou 2007 30 .341 .303
Dan Uggla 2011 30 .220 .258
Andre Ethier 2011 30 .307 .293
Ryan Zimmerman 2009 30 .292 .289
Willy Taveras 2006 30 .278 .274
Albert Pujols 2003 30 .359 .328
Luis Gonzales 1999 30 .336 .283
Sandy Alomar Jr 1997 30 .324 .273
Eric Davis 1997 30 .304 .269
Jerome Walton 1989 30 .293 .269
George Brett 1980 30 .390 .305
Ron LeFlore 1976 30 .316 .288
Stan Musial 1950 30 .346 .331
Goose Goslin 1934 30 .305 .315
Bing Miller 1929 30 .331 .311
Tris Speaker 1912 30 .383 .345

The Dan Plan

I am off to Citi Field. Reader Dan passed along this idea for reconfiguring the MLB playoff system, and I like it better than most I’ve seen proposed. He’s cool with me re-posting it here, so what follows is Dan’s plan. What say you, The Internet?

I offer the following as a suggestion for “fixing” the baseball playoffs, which, in my mind, have three key problems:

1. The cheapening of the division title — Winning the division used to be a championship of sorts, in and of itself. Now it is a mere footnote on a season, because of the wild card (and, of course, because one division actually has only four teams).

2. The inequity of scheduling for wild card competitors — Teams in tough divisions, like the Blue Jays, have an inherent disadvantage when compared to teams in easier divisions, like the Angels. Competition for playoff spots should be on equal terms, if at all possible.

3. The “early coasting period” for elite teams – Both the Yankees and the Red Sox are currently coasting to the playoffs, because of the division/wild-card model. In a better system, the two would still be battling for position.

I offer the following proposal:

1. Switch the Arizona Diamondbacks to the American League, and the Tampa Bay Rays to the National League.

2. Realign the league as follows:

NL East – Mets, Phillies, Braves, Marlins, Nationals, Pirates, Reds, Rays
NL West – Giants, Dodgers, Padres, Rockies, Astros, Brewers, Cubs, Cardinals

AL East – Yankees, Red Sox, Orioles, Blue Jays, White Sox, Indians, Tigers
AL West – A’s, Mariners, Rangers, Angels, Royals, Twins, Diamondbacks

3. Division winners get into the playoffs. The second and third place teams in each division play each other in a one-game playoff in the home stadium of the second place team. Winner goes to the playoffs; loser goes home. This gives you four elimination games per season. I agree with Joe Maddon’s objections to the concept of a one-game play-in — it certainly is not a fair approximation of the marathon that is a baseball season. It is the best method, though, because it reestablishes the importance and significance of the division title.

This system addresses the major problems of the current system. You can now have a fair unbalanced schedule, because teams only compete for playoff berths against their own divisions.

As far as objections, the Rays would probably not be happy to lose the nine sellouts to the Yankees, but they would gain a potential revenue stream by increasing their playoff odds as they move to the easier league. The Diamondbacks would be moving to the tougher league, but the AL West is no better than the NL West, and does not have the financial imbalance issues of the AL East.

This system also ensures that the Orioles and Blue Jays, the two teams most disadvantaged by the current system, always have a legitimate chance to get into the playoffs (as the #3 team in the AL East).