Dispatches from the TedQuarters San Francisco desk

I never caught up with TedQuarters San Francisco correspondent and frequently frustrated Giants fan Dailey McDailey upon the Giants’ playoff berth, and it’s a Friday and, to use his words, nothing clever is coming to mind. So here’s that.

TedQuarters: I never formally followed up with you, the TedQuarters San Francisco correspondent, about the Giants’ playoff appearance.

Dailey McDailey: Well, I’m still here, and I’m wearing my awesome Hawaiian shirt.

TQ: Recall that last we left off, you were cursing Brian Sabean for the Fred Lewis thing. And now the Giants are in the playoffs.

DM: And the Giants are still one outfielder short, since Aaron Rowand and Nate Schierholtz are on the roster. But Pat Burrell’s resurgence is the sort of thing that usually doesn’t happen for the old guys the Giants sign.

TQ: So Sabean and crew have gotten a bit lucky?

DM: In the roster construction department? Well, yes. Andres Torres, Aubrey Huff, and Juan Uribe have all been surprisingly good. And usually good teams don’t get surprised by how good they are.

On the flip side, Pablo Sandoval can’t hit on the road anymore, and hits into double plays at a Pierzynskian rate. But that’s four positive surprises to one negative. Thus, division championship.

TQ: Plus there’s the whole Buster Posey thing, which probably goes down as positive surprise, all told.

DM: I’m not very surprised by it to tell you the truth. I didn’t think he’d have this much home run power as a rookie, but other than that, he’s the player everyone told us he was when the Giants drafted him.

TQ: Yeah but I think you put way too much stock in all the animal sacrifices you’ve performed at the feet of your Buster Posey statue.

DM: On the advice of my attorney, I’m not going to respond to that

TQ: All their pitchers had pretty good years, too. Lincecum was sub-Lincecum-like, but Jonathan Sanchez put it together and they got good work out of Bumgarner,

DM: Yeah, most teams would love to be able to build their own staff from within like the Giants have, but for all his faults Sabean has always had an eye for pitching talent, and Dave Righetti seems to know how to turn that talent into a consistently good rotation.

TQ: So are you less inclined to [deleted for decency] Brian Sabean’s face right now?

DM: No. As good as this team is, it could have been much better with sound roster management starting, I don’t know, seven years ago.

This was always my problem during the Bonds years. You get no credit for winning 90 games when you start with the best player in baseball history. You have to use the other 24 spots to win 105 games. Also, winning 90 games starting with the four best 20-something pitchers in the league is not an accomplishment as much as an inevitability

TQ: Well that’s an overstatement but we’ll let it slide because you’re obviously amped up about your Gigantes. What of Bruce Bochy?

DM: Ever since Bengie Molina got traded away, he’s made all the right moves as far as I’m concerned. Especially in September, when the outfield was a jumbled mess, he deftly used Burrell and Guillen early to score runs, and then subbed in Ross and Schierholtz for defense late.

TQ: Did he look as awesome in person last night as he did on TV before I fell asleep?

DM: Awesomer? He had it all working.

TQ: Anything else you’d like to add for the TedQuarters faithful?

DM: Nothing clever is coming to mind.

TQ: Well, you had a late night.

Flood: Posey or Heyward?

Lots of SNY.tv love today. Patrick presents a pretty eye-opening chart, and I’ll add this: Only 15 guys have ever posted an OPS of .800 or better while qualifying for the batting title at age 20 or younger. 10 of them are in the Hall of Fame. The others are Ken Griffey Jr., Alex Rodriguez, Jason Heyward, Tony Conigliario — a tragic case, beaned in the eye at 22 and never the same afterwards — and Vada Pinson, a very good player who peaked a bit early and likely missed the Hall of Fame by a couple hundred hits. 

Umpiring stuff

Calling balls and strikes is not easy. Some umpires are better than others, of course. Major League hitters appear to have a better eye of for the strike zone than umpires do, and that’s a problem. As much as Bronx Cheer likes to defend umpires, sometimes it can’t. Wendelstedt had a terrible game on Thursday. Baseball has made great strides in cracking down on the strike zone, but it needs to do more. The Twins, not the umpires, probably lost the game Thursday night, but the uncertainty in that statement reflects a problem.

By isolating the discussion on the 1-2 pitch to Berkman, the media do themselves and the larger point a disservice. The controversy is not about that one missed pitch. Any umpire can miss one pitch. The problem lies in Wendelstedt’s terrible strike zone all night. He called a pitch right down the middle a ball. Jeff Passan has a good, if Twins-slanted, takedown. A strike zone that bad cannot happen in a playoff game.

Tom Boorstein, SNY.tv.

Boorstein is, as he explained here, as big a fan, follower and defender of sports officials as anyone I’ve ever met. It’s pretty weird. But it appears the umpiring and instant replay discussion is going to keep coming up until some sort of clear resolution is reached, and clear resolutions have never been the forte of Bud Selig’s office. So Tom’s a pretty good guy to go to for this stuff since he’s been following umpiring since way before it was cool.

It strikes me — pardon the pun — that ball-and-strikes duties are the aspect of umpiring that could most easily be replaced by computers or a robot, and it wouldn’t even require cutting back the number of umpires since you’d still need a guy standing there to make calls at home plate and rule on hit batsmen and checked swings, etc.

Probably not something that will happen soon or be implemented without hiccups. And I’m not even sure it’s something that should happen; I really haven’t thought it all the way through.

But Major League Baseball has to find a way to diminish umpire error if it’s affecting the strike zone so much that it impacts the outcome of games. Yes, the human element is part of the game and all that. But no one’s arguing that the players be replaced by machines (although Transformers baseball would be pretty awesome to watch). It’s just about making baseball more fair for the humans competing in it.

Also — and Tom doesn’t get at this, but I’ve discussed it before — I’m shocked by how many people seem certain that umpiring has gotten worse and how few consider that umpiring may have been equally bad forever and we’ve only recently come into new technologies that allow us to more thoroughly and frequently judge the way the game is called.

Now we watch games in high definition with a dozen super-slow-mo replay angles. We see for certain when umpires are wrong on calls we might have shrugged off as questionable or close just a few years ago.

Mr. Funky Samba

This came up on my iPhone this morning and I realized it might make a pretty hilarious choice for closer music. The funky fanfare up top would make it instantly recognizable as your own, then the groove itself would allow you to posture on the mound during your warmups like you were the alpha-male protagonist of a cheesy old cop drama. Plus you get to show solidarity with the Brazilian Black Pau movement of the late 70s.

They call him ‘Large Game Jimmy’

I’m curious how this is going to work out. Shields has always had good peripherals, but his ERA has been higher than his FIP and xFIP for his entire career. Things like fly ball to home run rate and BABIP are subjected to a lot of randomness, but that randomness is sometimes overstated. They’re not TOTALLY random. It’s not a complete fluke that his ERA has been higher than his other numbers would suggest.

At the very least, I find it interesting that a major league team is not only willing to look past the surface numbers, but openly admits to doing so. So if you’re into that whole revenge of the nerds thing, i suppose you might want to root for the Rays and Big Game James tonight.

Patrick Flood, Exile on 126th St.

Like Patrick said, it’s pretty great that Maddon is willing to explain that he’s pitching Shields this afternoon because of defense-independent pitching statistics when he could easily say, “oh, well of course we’re going with Shields here, he’s ‘Big Game James,'” and meet with a lot less resistance from the majority of fans and the media.

All that said, I struggle a little bit with xFIP, as I’ve mentioned here on a few occasions. I have no doubt it’s a useful tool and that most pitchers’ HR/FB rate eventually, with a large enough sample, should normalize somewhere near the league average.

But if I could wonder if perhaps Johan Santana was reliably yielding weak fly-ball contact this season when his xFIP was way above his ERA, I must allow that there’s a chance Shields consistently yields stronger-than-average fly-ball contact.

I’m probably fighting a strawman here because I don’t think anyone who really thought it through would pretend xFIP is the be-all end-all of pitching statistics, but do I see it sometimes bandied about like gospel, and I suspect there’s still a lot more work to be done in divorcing the pitcher on the mound from the defense behind him and the randomness inherent in the sport.

All that said, I’m still rooting for the Rays. Obviously.

Bah

If you’re a Mets fan trying to squeeze some small, pathetic measure of solace out of Roy Halladay’s no-hitter, I offer you this: The Phillies’ win significantly increases the chances Halladay will pitch again this October, which increases the already-high likelihood he will surpass his career-high single-season innings total of 266, set back in his Cy Young season in 2003. And Halladay struggled with shoulder problems for a large portion of the 2004 season, and he was only 27 then.

But to so much as consider that right now would be tantamount to wishing misfortune, ineffectiveness or injury down the road on a great pitcher in the immediate wake of a historic accomplishment.

If you read this site with any frequency you know I love spectacle, and I like Halladay as a pitcher — laundry aside — because I appreciate excellence in all of its forms.

But I hate the Phillies so much that every part of my soul wanted Brandon Phillips to beat out that dribbler last night. I just couldn’t stand the thought of the Phillies fans I know getting even more to brag about, and spending a night out vomiting on children in celebration.

Still, we got to watch something special, and though it’s great for Halladay, it amounts to only one win for the Phillies. So here’s hoping Bronson Arroyo makes sweet music tomorrow night and Sunday the Reds’ hitters roll up on Cole Hamels like a bunch of werewolves on a sparkly vampire, or something.

Pardon me if that reference is heavy-handed; I don’t read the Twilight books, as Hamels does.

Following up

Phil Birnbaum at Sabermetric Research picks apart the Wharton School research I doubted yesterday and comes to a way smarter and better explanation: “The factoid, ‘players hitting .299 or .300 batting a whopping .463 in their final at-bat’ is true — but it’s the result of cherry-picking the AB in the sample. If the player got a hit to pass .300, it was likely to *become* his last at-bat, as he tended to sit out the rest of the season. But if he made an out, the AB wouldn’t be his last.”

True grit

Let’s start with toughness, the one intangible the Mets have lacked most in recent years. You only have to go back a couple of weeks for a glaring example, when the Mets let Chase Utley wipe out Ruben Tejada at second base with an over-the-line slide and did nothing to retaliate.

Oh, sure, Carlos Beltran managed to get in the way of a double play the next day, but he didn’t even make contact, and when all was said and done, the Mets sent the message that they wouldn’t stand up to the Phillies — the team that has bullied them in one way or another for four years.

I don’t blame Jerry Manuel for the Mets’ failures in recent years, but he clearly failed to instill enough grit in his ballclub. Somebody has to do it because there’s no hard-edged leadership in their clubhouse….

Not that retaliating or even fighting is a cure-all for the Mets. Talent aside, however, winning in the big leagues starts with attitude, with the type of mental and physical toughness that has defined the Phillies and separated them from the Mets.

(Well, that and a farm system that allowed them to trade for Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay and Roy Oswalt over a 12-month period, but that’s another story – and a reminder of one of Minaya’s biggest failings.)

John Harper, N.Y. Daily News.

OK, first of all, Harper totally ignores the fact that Beltran not only called out Utley for the slide, but then admitted he was trying to hurt someone the next day and regretted that he was unable to do so.

But Harper loves to cite anonymous and mysterious baseball people who think Beltran is selfish and lacks grit, and this documented evidence of Beltran demonstrating precisely the type of grit Harper argues the Mets are missing would contradict not only the point of this column but the crux of many of Harper’s past columns, so, you know, let’s just pretend it didn’t happen.

Also — and way more importantly — talent not aside. Talent absolutely not aside. I don’t understand why it’s so hard for everyone to understand that the big difference between the Phillies and the Mets is not toughness or edginess or some sort of nebulous magic dust but real damn baseball skill, the most important factor in winning real damn baseball games.

The Phillies’ pitching staff posted a 110 ERA+ this year because it got 250 2/3 (!!) stellar innings from Roy Halladay and 208 2/3 excellent ones from Cole Hamels, and a bunch of strong performances from bullpen arms.

Yes, they weathered a slew of injuries to their starting lineup, but they did that because they fielded a deep and strong team, not through Charlie Manuel’s special old-man alchemy. They had the young players to trade for Roy Oswalt. A strong and well-managed farm system merits more than a parenthetical aside.

Now, look: No one’s saying the Phillies don’t hustle or that hustling doesn’t help win baseball games. Certainly the Phillies appear to exhibit a certain mettle, and since we’ve come to associate them with toughness and grit and, above all, winning, we mentally highlight their hustle plays and gloss over their junior moments.

Talent not aside. I’m sorry. I know that doesn’t make for a good story. Remember that during the World Series last year, Harper himself expressed surprise that the “gritty, gutty” Phillies suddenly didn’t “appear to be so tough-minded after all” once they ran into a better Yankee team.