The beauty of all hops

Over at Gelf Magazine, I conducted an interview with Alan Hirsch, co-author of the new book The Beauty of Short Hops. Check it out.

Though Hirsch demonstrates a reasonably firm grasp of sabermetrics throughout the book, he argues that the numbers obscure the beauty of the sport. I don’t see it that way. It has never been clear to me why appreciating the beauty of the game and the tools used to attempt to quantify it need to be mutually exclusive.

I love baseball. I know that, and I spend enough of my waking hours watching, playing and thinking about baseball that I feel no need to defend my appreciation of the sport. And I love the whole thing. I love all the messy things that play out on a baseball field over a 162-game season and the way that 162-game season seems to wrap up so tidily on a baseball-reference page when it’s over. It’s damn-near perfect.

What I don’t love — and forgive me for a heavy-handed segue — is business.

Actually, I’m not sure “don’t love” is the right term. I don’t get it. It doesn’t happen for me. I’m not business-savvy.

I’m generally curious about stuff, so sometimes I’ll ask my friends with business jobs some specifics about what they do, and it’s like the part of my brain dedicated to processing it short-circuits. I’m decent at math and I can usually grasp economic principles, but someone at a party starts talking to me about the futures market and I start giggling like a lunatic or just sort of wander off toward the drinks.

Being a Mets fan the past few days — or at least trying to read anything about the Mets on the Internet — has required plunging through buckets of unsubstantiated and entirely speculative business nonsense to try to winnow out any real, meaningful baseball information. Even putting aside the irritating details that the Wilpons and David Einhorn haven’t even reached a deal yet, that the actual terms of the not-yet reached deal have not been disclosed, and that no one’s ever going to hold anyone accountable for some horribly irresponsible journalism, it’s not really about baseball anymore.

It’s about a complicated multi-million-dollar business deal between billionaires, and that — to me at least — just isn’t really all that compelling.

Bottom line is the Mets are going to be playing National League baseball in New York for the foreseeable future, and most of the time they’re going to spend a hell of a lot of money on payroll no matter who’s at the helm. Many Mets fans are rightfully upset over what Fred Wilpon said to the New Yorker about three of the Mets’ best players, but that’s a different issue, and very different from arguing over six steps of speculation past a haphazardly reported deal that hasn’t been made yet.

I work here at SNY, so you’re going to question my motivations. That’s fine. You can’t see me shrugging, but I’m shrugging.

David Einhorn and the Wilpons are negotiating the partial sale of a perfectly interesting baseball team that seems to be winning a few games in spite of a rash of injuries and some bizarre managerial decisions, and I find that way more interesting. More on that in a bit.

Jose Reyes contract poll

Just because I’m curious.

I don’t want to say too much to skew the voting one way or the other, but keep in mind that elite free agents don’t often hit the open market in their 20s.

And the question is not what you’d like the Mets to offer Reyes or what you think is fair for his services. I’m asking the value and length of the biggest contract you would be willing to give Reyes if you were, for whatever reason, the Mets’ general manager.

[poll id=”24″]

Well this is good

People ask me “Is poker luck?” and “Is investing luck?”

The answer is, not at all. But sample sizes matter. On any given day a good investor or a good poker player can lose money. Any stock investment can turn out to be a loser no matter how large the edge appears. Same for a poker hand. One poker tournament isn’t very different from a coin-flipping contest and neither is six months of investment results.

On that basis luck plays a role. But over time — over thousands of hands against a variety of players and over hundreds of investments in a variety of market environments — skill wins out.

David Einhorn, Speech at the Value Investing Congress.

<3.

I for one welcome our new hedge-fund overlords.

Via Patrick Flood.

Everything coming up Milhouse

Francisco Rodriguez’s $17.5 million vesting option, activated for 2012 if the closer finishes 55 games this year, is commonly seen as an albatross, a major drag on his trade value. But for a variety of reasons, the clause is not as problematic as it seems, and Rodriguez might be far easier to move than conventional wisdom suggests.

The closer’s open-mindedness will help: Although Rodriguez has a clause blocking trades to 10 undisclosed teams, a source close to him said that he will consider any potential deal that is presented to him. Rodriguez is also open to waiving the vesting option in the event an acquiring team wants to negotiate a multi-year extension, the source said.

Andy Martino, N.Y. Daily News.

This ray of sunshine got lost in the Einhorn news this morning. And the language here means this might not really be news — he’ll consider waiving his no-trade clause, and he’s “open to waiving the vesting option in the event an acquiring team wants to negotiate a multi-year extension.”

So Rodriguez is open to being overpaid for the next several years instead of just being overpaid next year. That seems to make sense. I am also open to that.

Regardless, it’s good news that Rodriguez would waive his no-trade clause at all. And if — as the executive quoted in Martino’s story suggests — the Mets could get something of value in return for Rodriguez, they should look to deal their closer regardless of where they are in the standings come the trade deadline.

I bring this up a bunch, but as a reminder: The whole “buyer vs. seller” thing is silly. Those are labels. At the trade deadline and all other times, an MLB front office should work to improve its club by considering all possible deals.

If the Mets can find a way to get out from Rodriguez’s 2012 option and get something of real value in return, it shouldn’t matter if they’re within a few games of the Wild Card. Teams desperate for relief help tend to overpay for it at the deadline, and the Mets can find someone to close out games — perhaps not as effectively as Rodriguez, but you’re talking about 25-30 innings tops over the rest of the season.

Well-run teams can find ways to put together good bullpens on the cheap, allowing them to allocate payroll elsewhere. If the Mets can find a way to spin Rodriguez into a useful young player, they can replace him with a less expensive pitcher and reinvest his salary in a position more difficult to fill. Like, I don’t know, say, shortstop.

 

 

I just hope there’s a job for Tone Loc in all this

The Internet is ablaze this morning with talk that some guy is set to become the new minority owner of the Mets. And despite the rampant speculation of several months ago, it is neither Donald Trump nor Michael Bloomberg nor Ralph Lauren nor Lady Gaga nor any other famously rich person. It is David Einhorn, a hedge-fund manager from Westchester.

Oddly, back on Feb. 11, when I wrote how unlikely it was that any rich person we’d all heard of would purchase the Mets, I suggested as a likely candidate “some hedge-fund manager from Chappaqua.” Einhorn’s Wikipedia page does not say where in Westchester he lives, but I’m going to pat myself on the back right now for nailing it on the whole not-Donald-Trump thing.

The press release just came through so looks like the deal is done. My friends who have real-guy jobs sound pretty bullish about Einhorn, and on top of that, the good news is it provides the team some financial stability. Here’s the release:

The New York Mets today announced that David Einhorn has been selected as the team’s preferred partner and that the Mets and Mr. Einhorn have entered into exclusive negotiations with respect to a minority, non-operating investment in the team.  The $200 million personal investment by Mr. Einhorn is subject to the negotiation of a mutually acceptable definitive agreement for the transaction, as well as required approvals by Major League Baseball. The parties expect to enter into definitive agreements by late June.

“We are very excited about David joining our ownership group for several reasons,” said Fred Wilpon, Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, New York Mets.  “Davids investment immediately improves the franchise’s financial position.  Equally important, David’s intelligence, integrity and success in both business and civic affairs provides us with another perspective in evaluating what is best for this organization and our fans, and we welcome his input.  In partnership with David, we look forward to achieving our ultimate goal of again becoming World Series champions.”

Mr. Einhorn stated, “Having an opportunity to become part of the Mets franchise is exciting beyond my wildest childhood dreams.  I spent my first seven years living in New Jersey and rooting for the Mets.  In 1975, I even dressed in a homemade jersey as a Met for Halloween.  I have been a baseball fan for my entire life and have enjoyed teaching the game as the coach of my daughter’s little league team.  I look forward to partnering with the Wilpon and Katz families through the good seasons, the tough seasons and especially the championship seasons.”

Mr. Einhorn is President of Greenlight Capital, Inc., a private investment firm which he co-founded in January 1996, and is Chairman of the Board of Greenlight Capital Re, Ltd.  Along with his wife, Mr. Einhorn formed the Einhorn Family Charitable Trust, whose mission is to help people get along better.  He also serves on the Board of Directors of The Michael J. Fox Foundation for Parkinson’s Research and the Robin Hood Foundation.

And the more important thing right now is we get to make a ton of Ace Ventura related jokes. They’re going to get old really fast but let’s go to town today.

Ridiculous jelly bean press release obviously some sort of practical joke aimed at getting Kanye West to spend $500 on jelly beans

Influenced by food deconstruction masters such as Jose Andreas and Ferran Adria of El Bulli, David’s ‘Beyond Gourmet’™ jelly beans will enable one to create haute cuisine and exotic dishes using the taste elements of each jelly bean. It’s beyond candy! It’s literally an exotic trip around the world though the sense of taste via never-before-tasted jelly bean flavors. Imagine creating a Thai Lemongrass Curry or an Indian Mango Chutney dish by constructing complex dishes in your mouth, and giving it an explosion of taste that hits all your senses.

As part of the David’s Signature “Beyond Gourmet” Jelly Beans™ line-up, a very exclusive product featuring a “special blend” of the rarest and most exotic ingredients in the world will be enveloped in a 24-karat gold bean. They will be packaged in an exquisite Crystal jar and priced at $500. The 24-karat beans will be under armed guard at the show and are the most expensive jelly beans ever created in jelly bean history.

PRWeb.com.

Yeah you heard right: Jelly beans that literally take you on an exotic trip around the world. That $500 price tag sounds a hell of a lot more reasonable when you realize jelly-bean mastermind David Klein has unlocked the secret of jelly-bean fueled human teleport. Just eat a jelly bean and you’re literally in Thailand.

Seriously though, this can’t be for real, right? PRWeb.com appears reasonably legit so it’s a pretty elaborate hoax if they’re kidding, but there’s just no way someone’s sincerely, unironically planning to sell 24-karat gold-leafed $500 jelly beans. Right? IN THIS ECONOMY!?

Also, I really like that they feel the need to mention that these are the most expensive jelly beans ever created “in jelly bean history.” I guess that implies that the person writing the press release is doing it with his tongue at least a tiny bit in cheek, but I like to imagine he needed to specify because there have been more expensive jelly beans in other, alternate, non-jelly bean histories. I’m blowing your mind right now, I know.