I’m short on time and new ways to say that I’m not sure Jason Bay will ever hit again, so I’m collapsing these three into one. Plus they’re all connected anyway.
The outfielders in April: Jason Bay, Andres Torres, Lucas Duda, Scott Hairston and Mike Baxter.
Overview: How much longer can this go for Jason Bay? How many more questions will be asked, films watched, stances adjusted, words written, sliders on the outside part of the plate missed, jeers dispensed, grounders topped to third, and nice-guy caveats applied before something finally happens?
Bay has been on the Mets for two years, two of the three worst of his career. He has 18 home runs in 792 at-bats and a .386 slugging percentage. He doesn’t get on base like he used to, either. We’re past the randomness/adjusting to a new league/he’ll return to his mean part of it now. Something has clearly gone awry. This you probably know.
What we don’t know — as with David Wright — is how much of Bay’s struggles had to do with Citi Field’s dimensions and the adjustments he made to attempt to hit home runs there, with lingering injuries and the after-effects of the concussion that ultimately ended Bay’s 2010 campaign. What we can figure is that if Bay keeps producing (or not producing) at this rate, on a rebuilding team and with a vesting 2014 option on his contract based in part on 2012 plate appearances*, the Mets probably won’t keep him in the lineup if they’ve got any more enticing internal options.
The team’s top priority, still, should be getting Bay straightened out if that’s at all possible. For one thing, Bay still has way more immediate offensive upside than anyone the Mets have to replace him. If by some odd chance whatever happened to Bay was just the psychological and physical affects of the fences, and now with the offseason’s changes Bay goes back to being the 2009 Jason Bay on a normal decline, he’s one of the best hitters on the team and the Mets offense suddenly looks awesome.
Plus, if Bay starts hitting even a little bit, it should be way easier for the Mets to move his contract. Bay’s got a full no-trade clause, but though I’m not in his head, it’s hard to imagine he’s been so fond of his time in New York that he wouldn’t be willing to waive it for a chance to join a contender that wants a righty bat near the deadline. Even if Bay crushes the ball in the first half the Mets would probably have to eat some of his contract to move him, though.
If both Bay and prospect Kirk Nieuwenhuis open the year hitting like they did in 2011 at their respective levels, expect some sort of shakeup by the All-Star Break.
As for the rest: Andres Torres looks to be sweet on defense. He didn’t hit much last year, but he’ll be batting leadoff for the Mets because center field is one of Major League Baseball’s approved leadoff-hitter positions.
Torres’ batting average and batting average in balls in play in 2011 were well below his usual Major and Minor League rates, which suggests some bad luck. But he also hit for way less power than he did in 2010 and his short Major League stint in 2009, which suggests something worse than bad luck. If Torres can split the difference and post a line like the .249/.331/.419 aggregate of his last two seasons, he still won’t be much of a leadoff hitter but he’ll be about an average offensive center fielder for the NL.
Lucas Duda will hit. Something apparently flicked on for The Dude right around the same time it flicked off for Jason Bay: After hitting 24 home runs total in his first three Minor League seasons, Duda hit 27 of them across three levels in 2010, finishing his season with the Major League Mets. After an April cameo with the big club in 2011, Duda picked it back up in Buffalo. He joined the Major League club for good in early June and hit .306/.381/.505 the rest of the way.
Duda’s defense in right field was way less awesome, though he was playing an unfamiliar position in an oddly configured park. Now he’s more familiar with the position and the park less oddly configured, so maybe that helps. Maybe it doesn’t and the Mets move him to left if and when the Bay/Nieuwenhuis thing all goes down. It doesn’t seem like there’s a way his defense will be bad enough to keep his bat out of the lineup regardless.
Baxter and Hairston both seem fit for their roles.
The outfielders in September: Duda, Torres, Nieuwenhuis, Bay, Baxter. I’m making traids all over the place and figuring someone will want Scott Hairston’s right-handed bat and affordable contract either at the deadline or in the waiver-trade period, and the Mets’ logjam of righties on the bench will force the deal.
Overview: I’d put the Mets’ outfield better than the Nationals’ if Jayson Werth doesn’t get right quick, but worse than the rest of the division. Lots of mitigating factors involved there though.