Category Archives: Words

Season in preview: First base

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I need to make these shorter or they’re never going to get done. Less talk more rock.

The first basemen in April: Ike Davis, Justin Turner.

Overview: Last year, Davis performed like one of the best players in baseball for a little over a month before he fell victim to David Wright’s hardest hit of the 2011 season. Upon his arrival to Spring Training this year, he pronounced his ankle healthy then was diagnosed with Valley Fever, a lung infection common in the area of Arizona where Davis resides that never presents any symptoms in 60 percent of cases but that sidetracked Conor Jackson’s career and had half the Internet writing tearful requiems for the Mets’ first baseman.

Davis seems to be OK. He has played regularly throughout Spring Training and reported no trouble with his health. But the diagnosis combined with his small-sample supremacy last season mean people will inevitably blame Valley Fever if and when he fails to produce a 155 OPS+ over 550 at-bats in 2012. But then people are people, and I really shouldn’t get too hung up on all the stupid things they blame for stuff.

What matters is this: Davis, provided he is in fact healthy and feeling no effects of either the Valley Fever or last season’s ankle injury, should be at least a very good hitter and an excellent defensive first baseman. Over the first 652 at-bats of his career, he has got a 123 OPS+, a mark that’s undeniably trending upward even if you allow that he’s not quite as good as he looked in the first month of 2011.

Davis just turned 25 and the Mets just brought the fences in. If you’re looking for elements of the 2012 Mets you can dream on, here’s one of them: Maybe Davis blossoms into an excellent player, even a superstar. It’s no guarantee, but not a lot of guys hit as well as he did as young as he did.

Justin Turner will back up Davis, mostly, it seems, because Terry Collins doesn’t want to burden Daniel Murphy or Lucas Duda with the job while they’re learning new positions and maybe a little bit because he wants to have Justin Turner on the team and needs to find some good reason to keep him around.

Turner’s fine as a second righty pinch-hitting option (if you think you need two) and fallback plan in case Murphy doesn’t work out at second, but if he’s starting more than once every two weeks or so at first, that’s not so great. But Collins seems to know that too, since he said the team would move Duda or Murphy to first if Davis were to be out for more than a couple of weeks.

The first basemen in September: Davis, Mike Baxter. Playing a hunch that says Turner gets traded, since it seems like he’d have value to a team that needs a second baseman in a pinch. But then, if you’re playing at home, I’m three positions deep and already assuming two traids, and this isn’t a fantasy team.

Overview: I’m going to say Davis will be the best first baseman in the division in 2012. Freddie Freeman hit well for a 21-year-old in his rookie season in 2011 so there’s a chance he’ll outproduce Davis offensively, but Freeman’s something of a butcher in the field. Ryan Howard’s going to miss the first part of the season returning from Achilles surgery and subsequent infection and has been in reasonably steep decline for a while. Gaby Sanchez is pretty good but not great and unlikely to be getting any better.

And the Nationals have… whoa, WTF, the Nationals still have Adam LaRoche at first? WAIT, the Nationals have only had Adam LaRoche for one year and he only played 43 games for them, and Adam LaRoche has only been playing since 2004? I’m sorry; I don’t buy it. Can’t be true. Adam LaRoche has been on the Nationals since they moved from Montreal in 2005, and he was an old man then. I don’t care what these newfangled websites say. And in any case he’s not likely to be better than Ike Davis.

Season in preview: Catchers

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No time for fuss. I’m outsourcing most of this one to 2011 me.

The catchers in April: Josh Thole, Mike Nickease.

Overview: Here’s what I wrote in this space last year:

I think David Wright and Jose Reyes spoiled us. We forget that it took Reyes two and a half seasons to reach his All-Star form, and we expect every player that comes through the system to quickly achieve the type of success that Reyes and Wright enjoyed early in their careers. It’s almost unbelievable that the Mets were able to develop two legitimate All-Stars in such a short time, yet now we hope every prospect can immediately reach that level.

But no team entirely consists of All-Stars, and good teams need guys, too. A frequent point of contention with Minaya’s administration was that the Mets too often complemented their great players with terrible ones, casting misplaced blame on the Wrights and Carlos Beltrans of the world when meanwhile Jeff Conine was still getting important at-bats. Great teams need dudes: Low-cost, generally homegrown contributors that can benefit a roster without vacuuming up the payroll that should be dedicated toward the All-Stars.

And I think Josh Thole might be a dude. In his first 286 Major League plate appearances, Thole has a solid .286/.357/.373 line. It’s a small sample and his power numbers won’t make anyone forget Mike Piazza, but Thole has nonetheless hit like a better than average catcher whenever he has been in the big leagues. Moreover, the numbers aren’t terribly out of line with his Minor League stats; Thole has always been a patient hitter with doubles power….

Thole is still young and reasonably new to Major League play, so he could endure an adjustment period at the plate in 2011. But we should be patient. He has hit in the Minors and worked to become a solid defender behind the plate. Cost-controlled catchers with an above-average ability to get on base don’t come around every day, and even if Thole needs some time to develop at the big-league level, he is likely good enough and young enough to contribute to the Mets’ next contender.

I still think all of that about Josh Thole. He endured some growing pains offensively and defensively in 2011, though the latter have been somewhat overblown: He led the league in passed balls, but many of them came with R.A. Dickey on the mound.

Thole’s still just 25. It doesn’t look like he’ll hit for much more power anytime soon, but he’s at the age when most hitters are still improving. It seems reasonable to expect that after more exposure to big-league pitching, Thole takes better swings at better pitches in 2012 and starts hitting like a better-than-average catcher again.

Thole’s backup, Mike Nickeas, doesn’t seem likely to hit much at all. Outside of strong years at Double-A in 2006 and 2010, Nickeas hasn’t hit well at any level above A-ball and enters the season the Mets’ backup catcher despite only 63 big-league at-bats on his resume. But Nickeas has a reputation as a great defender and a smart player, and he’s in the conversation with R.A. Dickey and Manny Acosta for best hair on the team if Danny Herrera doesn’t break camp with the Mets.

The catchers in September: Thole, Nickeas. If Nickeas doesn’t hit at all, he could be replaced by Lucas May or Rob Johnson. I like the guy, so I’m betting he manages to at least get on base some in limited at-bats against lefties.

How they stack up: Brian McCann is excellent, and his backup, David Ross, can hit a bit too. In Washington, Wilson Ramos got his career off to a great start last year. Ramos’ Major League OPS last year was better than his career Minor League line so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him slow down a bit, but it’d be foolishly optimistic to predict Thole will outperform him in 2012. John Buck had a really weird first year with the Marlins, walking more and playing more than he ever did in the American League but also hitting for way less power. Carlos Ruiz fell back toward Earth after a career 2010 and posted a .283/.371/.383 line, which sort of seems like the ceiling Josh Thole season.

Since Buck is 31 and Ruiz is 33, I’ll guess Thole manages to outplay one of them in 2012. More likely Buck, since Ruiz benefits from the Phillies’ magic even though he’s a 33-year-old catcher who caught 128 games in 2011.

Season in preview: Starting pitchers

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Opening Day is Thursday, and since 20 posts about how great baseball is between now and then would probably grow tiresome, I’ll take up my annual season preview tradition today and try to crank nine more out in the next few days. First come the starters, then around the diamond, then the bullpen.

The starting pitchers in April: Johan Santana, R.A. Dickey, Jon Niese, Mike Pelfrey and Dillon Gee.

Overview: Hey everyone! It’s Johan Santana and he’s pitching baseballs!

That part is awesome. Santana’s actual returns this year seem likely to be less awesome, since he was declining before he got hurt, he’s coming back from a surgery very few pitchers have ever returned from and his velocity is not where it once was. If all goes well for Santana he can still be effective, but it would be a near-miracle for him to again emerge as a true Major League ace.

That role — or something close to it — is more apt to be filled by R.A. Dickey or Jon Niese. The knuckleballer Dickey has fluttered unpredictably to the ranks of the better pitchers in the National League over the past two seasons, posting a 124 ERA+ since joining the Mets by commanding his signature pitch and yielding a lot of weak groundball contact. Since Dickey is 37 and relies on the defense behind him, it’s unlikely he’ll get much better in 2012. But another season like the ones he gave the Mets in 2010 and 2011 would be… well, awesome and bearded and knucklebally.

Niese represents the team’s best hope for improvement. The 25-year-old lefty strikes out a good number of batters, doesn’t walk many, and yields a lot of groundballs, but he has yet to post a performance that matches his peripherals. Maybe 2012 is the year he does, or maybe it’s the year we throw our hands up and decide he’s doomed to underperform his peripherals.

Behind Niese, the Mets have Mike Pelfrey. Many Mets fans hate Mike Pelfrey for his inconsistency, but Pelfrey is quietly becoming my favorite player a) because of his consistency and b) because I’m a massive troll. He can be maddening to watch (unless you love fastballs), but Pelfrey posts remarkably consistent walk and strikeout rates every year. His performances vary based on how many hits and how many home runs he yields. From here it seems just as likely Pelfrey repeats his 2010 success as he does his 2011 struggles. Most likely, he pitches somewhere between the two.

It’s harder to know what to expect from Dillon Gee, besides his ridiculous chin beard. Gee did yeoman’s work in the back of the Mets’ rotation last year and won 13 games despite few strikeouts and a high walk rate and ERA, but the glimmer of hope should come from how he whiffed more than a batter an inning in Triple-A in 2010. Gee doesn’t have overpowering stuff, but since he’s still reasonably young, it’s not outlandish to hope he can improve in 2012.

Top prospects Matt Harvey and Jeurys Familia both appear ticketed to start the season in Triple-A Buffalo. The Mets want their pitching prospects throwing about 130 innings in the high Minors before they reach the big leagues. Though I’m not sure that’s a hard-and-fast number, Familia needs just over 40 to get there and Harvey needs 70. It’s never smart to bank on pitching prospects, but there’s some chance one or both could be in the rotation by August. There are arbitration clocks to factor in, though, and the Mets will want to be careful with their young pitchers’ innings totals.

The starting pitchers in September: Dickey, Niese, Gee, Harvey and Chris Schwinden. Hunches all. I’m going to proceed with skepticism on Santana and hope like hell he proves me wrong. But this figures Pelfrey gets dealt near the deadline.

How they stack up: Again — and obviously — the Mets’ starting pitchers do not actually face off with the other starting pitchers around the division; they face the hitters. This is just a means of comparison.

The Mets’ starting rotation doesn’t look awful, but it doesn’t look great either, and it likely won’t get much help from the defense behind it. And the rest of the teams in the division have some pretty good rotations.

The Phillies’ rotation is the standard-bearer, followed by the Braves’ and Nationals’. The Marlins have the only starting staff the Mets can hope theirs will best, and then only if Josh Johnson struggles in his return from injury, Ricky Nolasco continues to underperform his peripherals and Mark Buerhle suddenly ages.

Sandwich of the Week

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Big thanks to sandwich enthusiast @BobbyBigWheel for tipping me off to this thing and joining me for the festivities.

The sandwich: Ju Pa Bao (a.k.a. Macanese pork chop bun) from Pok Pok Wing, Rivington and Suffolk in Manhattan.

The construction: A fried pork chop on a Portuguese roll. That is all.

Important background information: Pok Pok Wing primarily sells wings made from a Vietnamese family recipe from a former co-worker of a chef named Alan Ricker who is lauded for his Thai restaurants in Portland, Oregon. The Ju Pa Bao is, per the Wikipedia, one of the most famous and popular snacks in Macau. I ate it in a Lower East Side bar next to a 50-something British photographer and his mid-20s girlfriend, both of whom complimented my looks and told me they had an open relationship. New York City is a strange and interesting place.

What it looks like:

How it tastes: You don’t even know. You don’t.

F@#$.

Look at that unassuming thing. Just look at it for a second. It looks like something that shouldn’t even merit a shrug no less several hundred words here, and you’re probably thinking, “oh Ted’s run dry now, just reviewing a plain ol’ pork chop on a bun.” But that’s because you don’t know.

Holy hell. There’s only two things and they’re both amazing. First, the bread: Piping hot, crusty on the outside, soft on the inside and sopping up just a little bit of the grease from the pork, bready and delicious.

Then, the pork: Not terribly thick but not too thin either, the perfect balance to the bread, and so tender and juicy, and just singing with pork flavor. It’s seasoned on the outside with what I’d guess is salt and black pepper and some garlic, pleasant and familiar flavors that remind me of my mom’s fried chicken only then, lo, it’s amazing pork.

There’s just one issue, one minor setback that’s going to keep this sandwich out of the Hall of Fame. There’s a bone in there. It’s a pork chop, remember, and it’s cooked with the bone in and they leave the bone in when they serve it up on the bone.

It’s not a terrible thing to negotiate, plus I recognize that there are some culinary advantages to leaving it that way. And it’s apparently the traditional way, for whatever that’s worth.

But everything else about this sandwich demands that I absolutely punish it with giant disgusting wolf-bites, and here I needed to be tentative because I knew that bone was threatening. It alters the sandwich-eating experience, and not in a good way.

Which is not to say the sandwich-eating experience wasn’t a pleasant one. It was amazing. This sandwich is outstanding. It’s just falling short of the Hall of Fame because I had to nibble at times instead of gobble and this is America bro.

What it’s worth: $8, and it’s a solid but not huge meal.

How it rates: 89 out of 100.

 

This week in taco theft

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Florida guard Erving Walker has been charged with stealing a taco and running from police.

Walker, a senior who ranks first in school history in assists, was arrested and given a notice to appear in court early Friday. He was charged with petty theft and resisting an officer without violence, both misdemeanors. He was not taken to jail.

Gainesville Police say Walker ordered a $3 taco from a street vendor, got the food and ran away without paying. When a police officer caught up with him and told him stop, Walker kept going, according to the police report.

When officers finally caught Walker with help from “several marked patrol cars,” he told them he was “just playing around,” the report said.

– Associated Press.

TedQuarters does not endorse this type of behavior. No matter how many assists you have in your college career, you still need to dish out $3 for a taco. Worst-case scenario, kindly explain to the vendor that you’re really hungry, you forgot your wallet and you will absolutely get him back the next time you pass by. Maybe he’s an understanding dude and he’ll trust you. Do not steal the taco, no matter how delicious it looks.

Thanks to the six or seven people who tipped me off to this news.

Mets and Niese near extension

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Good. If the terms are as reported, Niese gets guaranteed money and the Mets buy out his arbitration years and get a few more years of control on top of that. If Niese is the guy he has been the last couple of years, they get him at a fair market value. If he stays healthy, pitches to his peripherals and improves, they can pick up his sixth- and seventh-year options and get him at very favorable rates.

Not a big-market move or a small-market move, and nothing innovative at this point. Just reasonable baseball decision-making, it seems. Presumably the same will follow for Niese’s young teammates if they prove capable of contributing at the Major League level in 2012.

I would like to take this time to revisit my stance on the Braves’ starting rotation

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Wednesday night on the Mostly Mets Podcast , I said I liked the Braves to win the division because of the depth in their starting rotation.

Today, the Braves signed Livan Hernandez, who was just cut by the Astros, to be their fifth starter. Apparently the Braves weren’t thrilled with the way some of their young pitchers looked in Spring Training, plus Tim Hudson’s going to miss the start of the season after back surgery.

I happen to love watching the Livan Hernandez Magic Show, so I’m all for it. But his acquisition probably doesn’t speak well of the depth in the Braves’ rotation I was lauding the other night.