Mike Pelfrey’s Spring Training stats: Still meaningless

Posted on by
Reply

In a recent meeting that included the Mets’ executives and coaches, members of the front office suggested releasing Mike Pelfrey before Opening Day, according to two people with direct knowledge of the situation. None of the uniformed staff was in favor of the idea, and it was downplayed….

One team official characterized the recent discussion about cutting Pelfrey as “just what you do in meetings, throwing (stuff) against the wall, and we throw a lot of (stuff) against the wall,” and went on to predict that Pelfrey would have a strong year for the Mets.

– Andy Martino, N.Y. Daily News.

A couple of weeks ago, I posted Mike Pelfrey’s annual Spring Training and regular-season stats. Here they are now, after Pelfrey’s strong 6 1/3-inning outing against that thing calling itself the Astros:

Year Spring ERA Spring K:BB ERA K:BB
2008 8.14 0.8 3.72 1.72
2009 7.77 1.67 5.03 1.62
2010 6.15 8 3.66 1.66
2011 5.63 2.25 4.74 1.62
2012* 8.59 1.5

Pelfrey is everyone’s favorite LOLMets whipping boy for a variety for reasons. He was a high draft pick, he licks his hand, he admits to seeking counseling, and he’s not very good. Releasing him on account of any of those things, when he’s consistently above replacement level and the Mets have little in the way of Major League-ready starting pitching depth, would be silly.

Yes, there’s a chance Pelfrey repeats his poor 2011 season and will not be worth the $5.6875 million* he’ll make in 2012. But given his age, his propensity for health, and the randomness inherent in baseball, it seems just as likely he’ll pitch as well as he did in 2008 or 2010 and prove a valuable trade commodity if and when the Mets do have a Major League-ready replacement available.

And I know all about Chris Schwinden, Miguel Batista, Garrett Olson and Jeremy Hefner, and I understand the argument that says you could cobble together 200 innings as good as Pelfrey’s with a collection of guys on the Buffalo shuttle. But it doesn’t seem wise to enter a season like that, since you’re going to need those guys to cobble together Major League innings whenever some starter inevitably gets hurt.

*- Is it weird that Pelfrey’s listed salary goes to the fourth spot after the decimal point? That’s $500. I guess when you’re hammering those deals out to avoid arbitration, the player’s agent is going to fight for every last dollar, but how does that play out? “OK, how about $5,687,000?” “No, way, bro: $5,687,500 or we’re going to the arbiter.” Not a rhetorical question; I really have no idea how those negotiations work. I’m willing to find out if anyone wants to pay me upwards of $5 million to do anything.

Mets roster shaping up, fans freaking out

Posted on by
Reply

The Mets made a bunch of cuts today and it looks like the Mikes Nickeas and Baxter will make the Opening Day roster.

Baxter seems to be catching a ton of undeserved flak, so I figured I’d try to provide a little perspective. Here’s how Mike Baxter stacks up against the division’s other lefty-hitting reserve outfielders, based on MLBDepthCharts.com:

Baxter is 27 and will be all season. He posted a .791 OPS in a tiny Major League sample in 2011. He has a career .820 OPS in Triple-A. His most recent full season in the Minors translates to a .751 OPS in the Majors.

The Braves’ Jose Constanza is 28. He posted a .724 OPS in 109 Major League at-bats in 2011. He has a career .742 OPS in Triple-A. His most recent full season in the Minors translates to a .676 OPS in the Majors.

The Phillies will have Juan Pierre on their bench and Laynce Nix in a platoon role. Pierre, 34, has mostly been a full-time player since 2001, but he has a career .708 OPS. In 639 at-bats last year, it was .657. It was also .657 in 651 at-bats in 2010. In mostly platoon work, the 31-year-old Nix has a career .718 OPS. Over the last three seasons he has a .768 mark.

The Marlins have Chris Coghlan, who won the Rookie of the Year award in 2009 and has plummeted since. Coghlan will turn 27 in June. Last year he posted a .664 OPS in 269 at-bats.

The Nationals have Roger Bernadina, who will turn 28 in June. Bernadina has a career .668 OPS and posted a .664 mark in 309 at-bats last year.

All of those guys have more big-league experience than Baxter, no doubt. But how many of them are clearly better? Nix has some pop but can’t get on base. Pierre and Bernadina can steal bases but can’t really hit. Constanza looks like a good defender but probably can’t outhit Baxter. Coghlan got his career off to a great start, but was woeful on both sides of the ball last year.

But you know, LOLMets.

For the millionth time, just because a guy has never played in the Majors doesn’t mean he can’t.

Mets sign some guy

Posted on by
Reply

The Mets signed infielder Josh Rodriguez to a Minor League deal.

Rodriguez is probably joining the organization to give the team flexibility at Triple-A Buffalo. He has mostly played shortstop in the Minors, but has also spent time at second, third and in all three outfield spots.

Rodriguez endured a rough season at the plate in 2011, mustering only a .672 OPS in 295 at-bats between Double-A and Triple-A with the Pirates and Indians, and mostly at the lower level. But as recently as 2010 he looked like he could hit a bit, posting a sturdy .293/.372/.486 line in 317 at-bats for the Indians’ Triple-A team in Columbus.

That translates to a .254/.322/.409 line at Citi Field. So if he could regain that form, he’d fit as a replacement for Justin Turner as a righty-hitting utility man at the bigs if need be or — yeesh — represent a slight offensive upgrade over the 2011 version of Jason Bay in left.

More likely, Rodriguez gets sporadic at-bats in Double-A or Triple-A as an organizational soldier and we don’t hear his name again unless there’s a rash of injuries. But then we probably shouldn’t rule out a rash of injuries.

Mets over-under

Posted on by
Reply

Context: Lucas Duda hit a triple today. Though he does not look like a guy who’d hit many triples, he managed three in his tenure with the Major League Mets last season and has 12 in his five-year professional career. Presumably the new fences at Citi Field will make triples ever so slightly tougher to come by for the Dude.

[poll id=”100″]

Twitter Q&A thing

Posted on by
Reply

It’s the Buffalo Hot Dog from Box Frites. I’ve been on a huge Buffalo-stuff kick lately so my opinions might be skewed by that, but many of the other people I spoke to at the event felt the same way.

It’s a great combination of classic sports flavors, for one thing: the hot dog from baseball, the Buffalo-wing flavor from football. And it allows you to enjoy that Buffalo flavor in a portable, ballpark-friendly form. It’s well executed, too. Really can’t say enough about the Buffalo hot dog.

I was a little disappointed in the Cholula Chipotle Chicken Sandwich, only because everything on there sounded really good — I forget all of it now, but I think it was chicken cutlet, Cholula chipotle sauce, guacamole, pepper jack cheese and bacon. It wasn’t nearly as spicy as I expected, plus it was hard to get a good taste of the combination of ingredients in its miniature form. But it wasn’t ideal circumstances. Obviously I will give it a proper review once the season starts and I pick back up on the quest to eat all the Citi Field sandwiches.

Joe, I believe that’d be what Marlo Stanfield would call “one of them good problems.” Last year was the first time since 2000 that the Mets had five starters make at least 25 starts, and it’s far from a guarantee the same guys enjoy the same amount of health in 2012. So if Familia and Harvey are pitching their way into mid-season call-ups in Triple-A and the team doesn’t have an obvious candidate to drop, it’s good news twice over.

If that does happen, though, and assuming all the pitchers are performing in keeping with preseason expectations, you have to figure Pelfrey’s the first to go. I’m not sure that Gee has more upside, but since Gee is under team control for so much longer, he’s got more value to the club. Ideally, some contending team gets desperate for a starter who can reliably eat up some innings and Sandy Alderson finds a way to spin Pelfrey into something of future value.

After that, it probably comes down to effectiveness. Guessing right now, I’d say Gee gets pushed out if those guys both pitch their way into promotions and everyone stays healthy, but I’d never really guess that those guys both pitcher their way into promotions and everyone stays healthy.

I feel like this is the question I as born to answer, yet now that I’m here I’m stumped.

The Mets are like a big, delicious, meaty sandwich that you take a couple of bites out of and fall in love with, and then out of nowhere some guy punches you in the stomach and takes your sandwich. And you keep getting the same sandwich every day even though you practically know that guy’s going to punch you and take it, because those first few bites are so awesome and you want to finish one so badly that you’re just going to keep trying and trying no matter how often you get punched.

Whoa

Posted on by
Reply

This Tweet blew my mind:

 

I did some Google research and found this, the back of Lansford’s 1987 Topps card:

 

But — but! — there’s nothing about Sir Francis Drake on Lansford’s Wikipedia page and in fact, an old edit of the Wikipedia page that’s now archived on a Carney Lansford Facebook fan page says:

According to his 1988 Topps baseball card, Lansford is a direct descendant of the British privateer Sir Francis Drake. However, this is extremely unlikely since Drake is not known to have fathered any children.

And indeed, Sir Francis Drake’s Wikipedia page confirms that he had no children, though who really knows with those pirate types?

Anyway, if the lineage is fictional, I wonder who made it up. I’m not sure if it’d be funnier if the lie came from Lansford himself or from the guy writing the blurb on the back of the baseball card. I feel like if I had that job that’s exactly the type of thing I’d make up and try to slip in there to see if anyone noticed. But then it’s also really funny if one day in 1986 Carney Lansford was all, “yeah, I’m just going to tell this sucker from Topps that I’m a direct descendant of Sir Francis Drake, see if he buys it. I mean, I kind of look like him.”

The least funny scenario is that Carney Lansford’s father or grandfather made it up, and Carney Lansford grew up really proud to be a direct descendant of Sir Francis Drake and is only finding out right now from this blog post that he’s been living a lie. If that’s the case, sorry, dude. Nice mustache.