For offenses to be most effective, they need to be unpredictable. In the 2nd and 10 situation, this means defenses would have to prepare for the nearly equal chance of a run or pass. Many analysts refer to ‘balance’ as the key to unpredictability. But balance itself doesn’t matter if the offense is predictable in achieving its balance. Running and passing on every other down would provide perfect balance but would be completely predictable. That’s why randomness is at least as important as balance to keeping the defense on its heels. Anything other than random play selection provides a pattern, however subtle, that an opponent can detect and exploit….
Coaches and coordinators are apparently not immune to the small sample fallacy. In addition to the inability to simulate true randomness, I think this helps explain the tendency to alternate. I also think this why the tendency is so easy to spot on the 2nd and 10 situation. It’s the situation that nearly always follows a failure. The impulse to try the alternative, even knowing that a single recent bad outcome is not necessarily representative of overall performance, is very strong.
– Brian Burke, Advanced NFL Stats.
It turns out most teams are predictable on 2nd and 10, if not quite as predictable as the Jets have been in the first few games of this season. If you’re interested in play-calling tendencies at all, click-through and read the piece (and look at the graphs); it’s good.
Also, a fun fact: Brian Burke is the first cousin of my former roommate Ted Burke.
Hat tip to reader Brian (not Burke) for passing this along.
Seriously though, thanks. It seemed like most people who responded were pretty happy with the mix of content here. Some people wanted more random stuff, some wanted more sports. Some wanted less Jets, some wanted more Giants, some wanted no football stuff whatsoever. Some suggested more long-form pieces, others preferred more frequent short posts.
It sure does seem like the playcalling is predictable while watching the games, but I also think the playcalling is usually the easiest thing to criticize when a team’s going poorly.
But this one tidbit here — “the monkey, which had herpes, was eaten by one of the tigers” — I’m sorry, that’s the silver lining in this whole mess. Not for the monkey or the tiger, which is also dead now, but for those who appreciate the inherent (if, in this case, dark) humor in reports of a tiger eating a herpes-addled monkey.
I based the recipe on a bunch of different ones I found online. Excuse all the parenthetical asides. It was an email. I’d edit them out if I had more time:
Tedquarters 