On dominating Wheel of Fortune

When Burke first sees a puzzle, she immediately begins breaking it down into smaller pieces — “chunks,” she calls them. Each word becomes its own miniature puzzle. In Burke’s case, she was given a couple of leads during the Prize Puzzle of last Friday’s episode. The third word was a single-letter word, which had to be either A or I. And more important, there was that apostrophe in the opening three-letter word, between the first and second letters.

Of the few hundred thousand words in the English language, only two — I’VE and I’LL — fit that construction. Which meant the single-letter word was almost certainly A. The first phrase that popped into Burke’s head while she hoped for her turn at the wheel — I’LL HAVE WHAT SHE’S HAVING — didn’t come close to fitting the puzzle, but it made I’LL seem an unlikely starting point. Because HAVE is the word that probably follows I’LL, and here, Burke was searching for a three-letter word.

I’VE… A… I’VE GOT A…

Part of the art of designing a game show is making the basic and routine seem chaotic and unpredictable. The trick is, most people watch a show like Wheel of Fortune, and their heads begin swimming with the nearly endless possibilities: twenty-six letters and those hundreds of thousands of words. Burke’s strategy, her puzzles-within-puzzles way of thinking, is designed to narrow the range. That’s why she started with the smallest words first.

Chris Jones, Esquire.com.

This is mean, but growing up, we used to watch Wheel of Fortune kind of just to rag on the contestants. I always joked that if you passed the test, you got on Jeopardy!, and if you failed you got on Wheel of Fortune. Joke was always on us and our fellow nerds, though, since Wheel of Fortune contestants can win a lot more money and prizes (though champions no longer return).

Anyway, kudos to Caitlyn Burke for taking an analytical approach to the game. I saw this clip when it went viral and wondered why, if she knew it, she wouldn’t have at least taken another spin for a G or a T, since there were three of each on the board and only a 1-in-8 chance she’d hit Bankrupt or Lose a Turn.

But, as Jones points out, that wouldn’t have looked nearly as impressive.

Pretty awesome, but clearly no one will ever top Michael Larson for game-show manipulation. Hat tip to Deadspin.

Further fearmongering: Sulky outfielders

Apparently Mike Francesa asserted yesterday that Angel Pagan “sulked” about moving to right field after Carlos Beltran returned in July.

This came as news to me, and, apparently, many others around the Internet. I didn’t listen to the show, but I’d guess Francesa cited vague “sources” (sawces?) and/or conflated Pagan with Jeff Francoeur, who came out and announced that he wouldn’t sulk about moving into a reserve role, then pretty much did. Or perhaps it was Francesa himself sulking when Beltran returned.

My understanding is that Beltran is something of a mentor and hero to Pagan. David Waldstein reported in July that “Pagan practically worships Beltran and says it is an honor to play alongside him every day.” Doesn’t really sound like sulking.

And when Beltran holds a fundraiser for the Carlos Beltran Baseball Academy in Puerto Rico on Saturday, Pagan will be in attendance (along with Jose Reyes and Sandy Alderson).

About that, briefly: According to the press release, Beltran donated $2 million to help fund the academy, which will open Aug. 1 on a 19-acre campus in the town of Florida, Puerto Rico.

The school aims to prepare its 120 high-school aged students for college as well as for the Major Leagues, and will feature “state-of-the-art housing facilities supervised at all times, a computer center, WiFi technology, language laboratories emphasizing English, an interactive library, among others. The multi-use recreational and athletic facilities will house baseball fields, indoor batting cages, pitching mounds, dugouts, gymnasium, swimming pool, running track, locker room, among other; all in an eco-friendly environment.”

Anyway, apparently Francesa endorsed trading Pagan because of the sulking and because his value is currently high. The latter part is true; Pagan has never appeared more valuable than he does now, under team control via arbitration through 2012 and coming off a season and a half of excellent play in the Mets’ outfield.

I love watching Pagan play so I’d prefer he go nowhere. And since I’m not certain Beltran will ever again be able to expertly cover Citi Field’s vast expanses like Pagan can, and the Mets don’t have a Major League ready young center fielder who can, it seems like it would be difficult for the Mets to get a return on Pagan that would offer as much value to the club.

Of course they should listen, because, as mentioned, Pagan’s value is high and the Mets have plenty of needs. If some GM wants to come blow them away with a package of prospects or an excellent young pitcher locked down for four years or something like that, then, you know, great.

But I’m not sure either is likely to happen, so I’m looking forward to seeing Pagan back in a Mets uniform (and hopefully in center field) in 2011.

Other things to fear: Rookie catchers

Cashman met with Posada in Manhattan this week to tell the veteran to, as usual, prepare to catch, but the team’s first option is to have youngsters Jesus Montero, Francisco Cervelli and Austin Romine compete in spring training for the two primary jobs.

It is quite a risk to team an expensive, mostly veteran staff with such inexperienced catchers. But it is indicative of how much the Yankees believe Posada’s defensive game has slipped in all areas.

George King and Joel Sherman, N.Y. Post.

Is that really “quite a risk”? First off, shouldn’t a veteran staff be precisely the type that wouldn’t be hurt by pitching to young catchers, and the perfect way to provide an inexperienced backstop the reps he needs to accumulate all those lauded and nebulous staff-handling skills?

Second, it’s really hard to tell if those skills really require so much experience. Yankees pitchers yielded almost identical OPSes with Cervelli and Posada behind the plate in 2010 — .724 and .719, respectively.

And Cervelli was way more often charged with handling Javier Vazquez and A.J. Burnett — not only the two worst Yankee starters last season, but the two reputed as most volatile. Burnett yielded a .755 OPS when pitching to Cervelli and a 1.034 OPS when pitching to Posada. For Vazquez: .777 to Cervelli, .930 to Posada.

You could certainly make the case that those figures are only the byproducts of small-sample size fluctuation, since, like I said, neither Burnett nor Vazquez threw a whole lot of pitches to Posada.

But what you can’t really argue is that the veteran Posada was better for the shakier elements in the Yankees’ rotation than Cervelli was.

And while we’re at it, let’s look around the league. Mets pitchers yielded a .756 OPS while pitching to Rod Barajas and a .703 mark pitching to Josh Thole. Giants pitchers: .683 to Bengie Molina, .675 to Buster Posey. Reds pitchers: .788 to Ramon Hernandez, .649 to Ryan Hanigan. Tigers pitchers: .735 to Gerald Laird, .731 to Alex Avila.

Now it could certainly be that the latter, less experienced player in each of those instances earned his promotion to the big leagues by demonstrating a precocious ability to handle pitchers in the Minors, and there’s selection bias at play.

I have no doubt that the ability to handle a pitching staff and call games is at least marginally important, even if many games are now called from the bench. Pitchers coming off good games constantly praise their catchers’ plans for opposing hitters, and the catcher is generally expected to be the first line of defense against a mound meltdown.

But I guess what I struggle to understand is why you need some set amount of Major League experience before you’re deemed apt to do those things. Certainly, time served should help with knowledge of opposing hitters, but so does video scouting, pre-series meetings with coaches, and a bevy of other factors. It’s hard to see why a smart and driven young catcher — good enough to get to the Major Leagues and want to stay there — should present any “risk” to any staff, no less a veteran one.

Word is Montero’s defense leaves a lot to be desired. And Cervelli actually ranked below Posada, dead last on those catcher defense rankings I linked earlier. But Sherman and King aren’t really referring to the measurable aspects of their defense.

Turkey terror

The Mets appear to be in the hands of smart, capable men who embrace objective evaluation. The McRib is flying off the shelves at McDonald’s. Joe Morgan will no longer pollute Sunday Night Baseball with nonsense. Cee Lo Green’s album dropped yesterday. We’ll have space tourism by the end of next year.

This is a wonderful time to be alive.

But have no fear: We’ve still got something to fear.

And it’s turkeys.

According to the Daily News, a flock of wild turkeys that escaped from a psychiatric  institution — I s@#$ you not — are terrorizing parts of Staten Island.

“It was straight out of ‘Cujo,'” said dental assistant Gina Guaragno, 23. “I’m sitting in my car Facebooking on my phone when turkeys jumped on my windshield.

“I screamed like I was being murdered. They just kept looking at me like it was their car. I felt trapped. I was so scared.”…

Standing 2 to 4 feet high, the brown-feathered fiends meander between houses and linger for hours outside some homes….

Some seniors are too terrified to leave their homes, City Councilman James Oddo said.

Four-foot high (can that possibly be true?) wild turkeys running amok on Staten Island, just crapping and squawking and strutting around like they own the place. Trapping you in your car while you’re innocently making verbs out of websites. Yeah, I’d file that under terrifying.

One solution the Daily News article suggests is “harvesting,” which is, well, exactly what it sounds like. I don’t imagine wild turkey tastes all that great (as opposed to Wild Turkey, which is delicious), since even regular turkey is overrated and wild turkey probably isn’t all plumped up on whatever they feed the domesticated ones.

But you’ve got to step up, Staten Island. PETA’s not going to like it, but it’s time for some vigilante justice. Clearly these beasts have no natural predators on the island, and if you don’t stop them soon, eventually a couple will make its way onto the ferry or over the Verrazano and unleash fury on the rest of the boroughs.

I just wonder what Mary Ann DeFrancesco thinks about all this.

Stop caring about the Gold Glove award

Yes, Derek Jeter won the Gold Glove again. No, he didn’t deserve it.

Yes, the awards are more based on reputation than evidence. They also, for some reason — perhaps laziness on the part of the voters — seem to unfairly reward incumbents. And there’s no doubt that there’s an offensive component at play, even though they theoretically reward defense.

But really, who cares? Does anyone that knows anything about baseball still really think the Gold Gloves always go to the best fielders at every position? They’ve been a meaningless pageant for years, maybe always. They’re a joke. Use them for jokes if that’s your thing, or just stop paying them any mind.

There are much better ways to determine good fielders, and even better-researched awards.