Reasonable speculation

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After hitting six bombs in 45 games in AA, Duda has eight in 21 in AAA. He’s hitting a combined .300/.406/.582 for the year and .329/.395/.750 in 21 games in AAA. Three of his eight homers have come against lefties against whom he’s hitting .200/.286/.640 compared to .392/.448/.804 versus righties.

– Toby Hyde, MetsMinorLeagueBlog.com.

I don’t want to bandy about unfounded rumors, but I believe it’s entirely reasonable to start speculating that Mets farmhand Lucas Duda has sold his soul to Satan for home-run power or is otherwise benefiting from a recent foray into the dark arts.

Duda’s previous career high was 11 home runs in St. Lucie in 2008. He averaged about one home run for every 46 at-bats in his first three Minor League seasons, but has stepped it up to about one per every 17 at-bats this season, including a downright Ruthian 1/9.5 rate since his promotion to Triple-A.

Will Duda keep that up? No. Not unless he really entered a contract with Lucifer. But the outburst has to at least earn him consideration as something more than organizational roster filler. By most accounts he’s a pretty terrible fielder in the outfield, and he’d be redundant on the big-league club with Chris Carter already in tow. But he’s probably a better option than Mike Jacobs to get a call if the Mets need left-handed pop in a pinch.

Some stuff about Jon Niese

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The start was an important one because it was Niese’s second of the season against the Reds. (He gave up four runs in a no-decision on May 5.) A young pitcher like Niese may be able to befuddle hitters the first time around, but the second time, they lose the advantage that comes with their unfamiliarity.

– Thomas Kaplan, New York Times.

This is a point I hear made pretty frequently, and one I’ve definitely considered here numerous times. But I wonder if it’s true. Is there any evidence to back up the claim that a pitcher does better against his opponents the first time he faces them?

Also, even if there is, I’d have to guess it is at least partly attributable to the same logic that explains the beginner’s luck fallacy. The notion of “beginner’s luck” exists because people who win when they first start gambling are more likely to keep gambling, since they’ve been rewarded. If they lost from the outset, they’re more likely to leave the casino. When they win from the start, they stay long enough for the odds to catch up to them, and so when they see someone else win early they say, “aww, beginner’s luck.”

If a young pitcher gets rocked by an opponent in his first start against them, there’s a pretty good chance he’s getting rocked by lots of opponents and he’s not going to last in the Majors long enough to make a second start against any team. If he succeeds his first go-round, he’ll get more chances, and so more opportunities to fail. I’m pretty sure that’s a big factor in the Verducci Effect and “sophomore jinx,” too — no one’s looking for regression from pitchers who sucked in the first place.

Anyway, that’s just something I’m thinking of and has nothing to do with Jon Niese. At least not yet, I guess.

Niese lost last night and got tagged for a couple homers, but he struck out eight guys while walking only one in 7 2/3 innings. That’s excellent.

In fact, Niese’s 2.61 K:BB ratio is the best among Mets starters this year. He’s inducing 49.5% groundballs. Straight up, the kid is good.

People always seem to talk about him as, at best, a middle-of-the-rotation innings eater. But considering his strong start to his career and very good Minor League peripherals, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect a little more than that. He could certainly struggle with a little more exposure, like the quote above suggests, but there’s no evidence that he’s been unduly lucky in his rookie campaign.

Niese has been one of the least heralded reasons for the Mets’ success this year, I think. If he keeps this up, though, that will change. With Jason Heyward hurt and Stephen Strasburg’s innings set to be limited, Niese may contend for NL Rookie of the Year.

Hold on, it turns out Bronson Arroyo is a human treasure trove of YouTube hilarity

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Here’s Bronson Arroyo covering the Goo Goo Dolls’ “Slide:”

Here’s Bronson Arroyo selling a truck. Language somehow NSFW (?):

Here’s Bronson Arroyo hawking very intriguing sandwich that appears to be a hamburger parmesan hero:

Here’s Bronson Arroyo, ahh– I have no idea what this is. The language is intensely NSFW though:

That’s tonight’s Cincinnati Reds starter right there.

All sorts of stuff I didn’t previously know about squirrels

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Yet researchers who study gray squirrels argue that their subject is far more compelling than most people realize, and that behind the squirrel’s success lies a phenomenal elasticity of body, brain and behavior. Squirrels can leap a span 10 times the length of their body, roughly double what the best human long jumper can manage. They can rotate their ankles 180 degrees, and so keep a grip while climbing no matter which way they’re facing. Squirrels can learn by watching others — cross-phyletically, if need be. In their book “Squirrels: The Animal Answer Guide,” Richard W. Thorington Jr. and Katie Ferrell of the Smithsonian Institution described the safe-pedestrian approach of a gray squirrel eager to traverse a busy avenue near the White House. The squirrel waited on the grass near a crosswalk until people began to cross the street, said the authors, “and then it crossed the street behind them.”

In the acuity of their visual system, the sensitivity and deftness with which they can manipulate objects, their sociability, chattiness and willingness to deceive, squirrels turn out to be surprisingly similar to primates. They nest communally as multigenerational, matrilineal clans, and at the end of a hard day’s forage, they greet each other with a mutual nuzzling of cheek and lip glands that looks decidedly like a kiss. Dr. Koprowski said that when he was growing up in Cleveland, squirrels were the only wild mammals to which he was exposed. “When I got to college, I thought I’d study polar bears or mountain lions,” he said. “Luckily I ended up doing my master’s and Ph.D. on squirrels instead.”

– Natalie Angier, New York Times.

My wife and I were talking about this not too long ago: I have lived among squirrels my entire life, and yet I have no idea where they sleep. Turns out they “nest communally as multigenerational, matrilineal clans,” which is impressive and ominous but doesn’t really clarify where they’re actually sleeping. Holes in trees? If so, how do they hollow them out to fit their whole squirrel clan in there? Does that kill the tree?

The Times article is pretty fascinating. Turns out squirrels also trick each other when hiding their nuts. They bury them and rebury them to avoid nut theft, because squirrels are super paranoid.

It’s a neat trick squirrels have pulled. How many other rodents live among us that we don’t actively try to destroy? I mean, sure, sometimes some squirrels will overstep their bounds and find a way to burrow in your attic crawlspace and then, you know, chain of animal command and all. Humans are unmistakably the king of the suburbs.

But no one ever puts down squirrel poison or squirrel traps like they do for rats or mice. Really, there’s no other non-domesticated mammal as large and ubiquitous that we so willingly share a habitat with. We fear raccoons and possums disgust us, but squirrels bear no similar stigma. And why? Is it just because squirrels are better looking than rats? Less likely to spread the plague? Less invasive?

And though we don’t seek to rid our yards of woodchucks or chipmunks or any other rodent that doesn’t look to invade our homes or ravage our gardens, they’re not nearly as present and prevalent as the squirrel. So I recommend being a little more suspicious of squirrels. Those little bastards are up to something.

MetsBlog.com – Buzz: Mets Can Add Payroll, within Reason

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…this is always true… however, from what i can gather, while the team can add payroll, i wouldn’t expect them to take on, for instance, ALL of the $30 million due to oswalt… of course, no team is interested in doing that… and so, instead, i hear adding a guy like Cliff Lee, or Ted Lilly, who are due roughly $3 million or so between now and the end of the season, is totally within reason… unless he will cost Jon Niese or Ike Davis, in which case the lack of action will have nothing to do with money or motivation, but everything to do with talent…

~ MetsBlog.com – Buzz: Mets Can Add Payroll, within Reason.