Marty Noble has a new Mets.com mailbag out today, and in it, he discusses Angel Pagan:
He was a productive offensive player last season. But his errors — of omission, commission and in thinking — were so many, assessing his skills can’t be done so readily.
I don’t know. Maybe that’s true. Pagan did make a few really terrible mental mistakes in 2009. But were they really so bad as to take away from the value he added to the team?
Not nearly. Bill James Online, which relies on video scouts from Baseball Info Solutions to judge how many plays a defender makes above or below the average player at his position, had Pagan as a +12 left fielder, a +7 center fielder and a +1 right fielder. Presumably, that includes the penalties levied against Pagan for his blunders.
And on the basepaths? The same site has him as a +12 baserunner, meaning he gained 12 more bases with his feet than the average player would in similar situations. (Note: I initially botched — by a lot — my reading of his stats page. I wrote that he was +35, which is his career total.)
He was thrown out on the bases four times, which isn’t great. But I’d guess that a player so aggressive on the basepaths will always be more prone to the occasional gaffe. So while everyone was so busy chastising Pagan for the times he cost the Mets runs with his baserunning, they forgot to celebrate all the runs he actually earned the team with his legs.
So essentially, there are ways to assess readily assess his skills despite his lapses in concentration. I’m not saying we should take the Bill James Online stats as gospel, but since they do weigh both his positive and negative contributions, they provide a lot of assistance in figuring out how to value his tendency for the baserunning or defensive yip.
And the verdict shows that Pagan, when you combine his plus defense and plus baserunning with his .837 OPS, was pretty damn good in 2009.
Should the Mets count on it going forward? Maybe not. But they certainly shouldn’t hold against Pagan all the nonsensical sanctimony about him playing the game the wrong way.
Incidentally, the first question in Noble’s mailbag regards Carl Crawford’s “personality and leadership” and is posed by a Queens resident named “James K.” Could this be James Kannengieser, Amazin’ Avenue writer, occasional TedQuarters commenter and sabermetric knight-errant of the Mets’ blogosphere? James, are you baiting Marty Noble?
Tedquarters 
We may have a ‘James K.’ impostor on our hands – it is not me. Although I have done my fair share of Noble baiting in the past.
Now if you’ll excuse me, I have to go berate my co-worker for his claim that “A-Rod still isn’t clutch, no matter how many homers he hits in the playoffs.”
James’ life goal is to bait everyone. It’s not the first time he’s trolled Noble, either: http://www.firejoemorgan.com/2008/01/not-sure-how-i-missed-this.html
Wow. That’s awesome on so many levels.
I bait my hook on weekends at Point Lookout, and I bait my hook on weekdays on the Internets.
Send my regards to my former co-workers at Jordan Lobster Farm.
Thanks for the numbers, I’m surprised they’re so good. This is a case of our memories deceiving us. We all remember 2 of the 4 times he got caught. The first time he rounded second on Castillo’s single (or was it a fielder’s choice? I forget the final ruling), then thought the ball was caught so headed back to first and got forced out at second. One of the many times this season the announcers said “I’ve never seen that before.” (they’ve yet to say that in a good way, BTW). Another time Pagan miscounted outs and was doubled off. These aren’t errors of aggressiveness. And in the ugliest inning in Mets history, Pagan isn’t remembered for his would be game-winning double, but (rather unfairly) for someone else’s historic baserunning blunder and then Pagan and Beltran letting a routine fly fall between them. And he was caught stealing 7 times in 21 attempts. I think 2 of them were in bizarre 1st and 3rd double steal attempts. So again, thanks for the numbers. Because the impression many of us had watching him was of somebody who gave 110% but simply looked lost and confused too often. (Note: this is what they said about Eli Manning until he won the Super Bowl).
That seems like a pretty significant number of runs that Pagan gained with his baserunning. I can’t access the subscriber stats on Bill James Online – Ted, can you maybe give some other players’ baserunning runs for comparison?
“Because the impression many of us had watching him was of somebody who gave 110% but simply looked lost and confused too often. (Note: this is what they said about Eli Manning until he won the Super Bowl).”
And now Eli is still a quarterback who looks lost and confused sometimes, except he has a Super Bowl ring. I appreciate him for what he’s done, but I still wish he’d stop being lost and confused from time to time.
That’s actually bases gained, not runs gained. But I totally botched my successful reading of the page. He was +12, all based on baserunning as his SB total was negated by his CS total. I’m updating the post now. Michael Bourn was +55, the league leader by a bunch. David Wright led all Mets with +23, Luis Castillo was +7, Jose Reyes was actually -1 (he was +63 in 2007), and Carlos Beltran, after being between +32 and +36 from 2005-2008, fell to -3.