Yesterday I promised to provide more thoughts about Daniel Murphy and his role with the Mets moving forward, but I got busy with actual work.
My apologies.
Murphy may have been trumped by Jeff Francoeur as the most divisive Met, but the young first baseman still inspires tons of debate among the Shea Faithful.
Here’s what we know: Murphy did not hit well enough in 2009 to be an everyday first baseman for a competitive Major League team. His .741 OPS was more than 100 points below the National League average, and even as his numbers surged in the second half, his walk rate declined.
Despite a few embarrassing blunders, he acquitted himself nicely at first base after switching positions. At times he appeared a bit lost in the new spot, but he demonstrated good range by both objective and subjective measures.
It seemed, to my eye at least, like Murphy mastered the rhythm of the infield, even if he wasn’t always playing the right notes.
But that’s 2009. That’s gone. What matters is what Murphy can do in 2010 and beyond.
Because that’s the thing about Murph. Whether he’s a blue-collar stud or an overhyped dud, he’s under the Mets’ control and inexpensive for the next several years.
If you’re in the camp that says the Mets are only a piece or two away from a World Series berth in 2010, then you don’t — and probably shouldn’t — care what Murphy is earning. If the Mets are only a piece or two away from contending, they shouldn’t bank on Murphy’s improvement in 2010 and he should be traded away or relegated to a bench role, where he’ll be just some guy earning the Major League minimum.
But if you’re in the camp that says the Mets have many, many question marks beyond the ones surrounding their young first baseman, then you’re in the same camp as me. (We can be camp friends!)
And if that’s the case, then you must recognize that the Mets should stick with Murphy, at least for now.
Sure, there’s plenty to suggest he won’t ever be the player the Mets need him to be. If Murphy doesn’t markedly improve from his 2009 campaign, he will not be an adequate first baseman for a team that aspires to postseason play.
On the other hand, Murphy is 24, and before this season had precisely 135 at-bats above Double-A. It can take a long time for a young player to fully adjust to Major League pitching, and plenty of good hitters have had Age-24 seasons far worse than the one Murph just endured.
If Murphy can become a good hitter, even good enough to be an average first baseman — and that’s a pretty darn good hitter, mind you — he’ll be something immensely valuable: A low-cost everyday player who can free up spending cash for the Mets to use elsewhere.
In short, he could be a guy. Not an Hall of Famer or an All-Star, but also not a value-sapping below-replacement-level scrub like the ones the Mets too frequently trot out. Just a guy, a deserving Major Leaguer.
This has been my whole thing for a while: The Mets need guys. Inexpensive guys. And Murphy can be one of them.
He should be given that opportunity this season. There’s not that much to lose and there’s a ton to gain. At worst, he can hold down the fort until Ike Davis is ready. At best, he can force the oft-rumored move of Davis to right field when Francoeur inevitably regresses to his mean.
It’s about patience. The Mets need to take their time assessing Murphy, Murphy needs to take more pitches at the plate, and Mets fans need to stop taking for granted that the team can piece together a winner without making efforts toward sustainability.
Tedquarters 
There are many paths to success. I do think the team is only a couple of pieces away (and a manager would help those pieces have value)
It depends upon how they fill LF/C. If they significantly improve C and LF can have Delgado type numbers, they’re probably pretty set offensively.
Here’s the think about Murphy..I think he’s proved he won’t be a disaster. It’d be silly not to expect him to improve off of what was basically his rookie season, and with better players in the lineup, a consistent spot/role in the lineup, more experience at first base. His worst streak of last year was when he was platooning. He didn’t hit a ton of home runs in his 80% of a season, but he did lead the team. It’s only a baby step from there to a 20 home run season, which is perfectly acceptable.
Did Jeff Francoeur hit on your wife or something? You love to hate that guy.
Now I’m not in the Francoeur is a future HOFer camp, but I do think he can be a solid major league player.
Something to keep in mind is that while you in this post are cutting Murph the standard “135 ABs above AA”, “24 years old”, and ‘takes young players a long time to adjust’ slack, you are forgetting that Francoeur is only a year older than Murphy. He himself in reality is still a young player, it just doesnt seem like it because hes been around so long.
I’m just saying if your going to allow Murphy slack and leave the door open for the thought that he can improve, you have to also think that its just possible, I know its hard to believe, but its possible, that Francouer could improve his plate discipline, which is one of the only things keeping him from becoming a real good player.
What happened to that kid in 2008 that hit 300 in 130 ABs? Iff Murphy didn’t improve from 2008 to 2009 why would you assume he will improve next year? Ever hear of the sophmore jinx? Also with a OPS 100 points below the average 1B we’re talking about a huge improvement. And he isn’t a very good fielder.
1. Daniel Murphy is a good fielder.He was second in UZR for first basemen.
2. Murphy could improve 100 points on his OPS. Jose Reyes did, and Murphy’s second half shows he could.
Daniel Murphy should be given a clear and unequivocal shot at firstbase for a full year. Statistically, he WAS the second best fielding 1st baseman in the NL. One would think, with DM’s work ethic, that his ability at the position will improve given that his first year was learned on the fly. Murphy also demonstrated a an arm and a range in the field worthy of consideration as the Mets 2nd baseman, if the club finds a better candidate for 1st base.
At the plate, Murphy’s statistics last season, his first full year, compare favorably with David Wright’s with the exception of BA and OBP. His homerun, double, triple and RBI totals are quite similar. He did not have as many RBI opportunities as Wright.
Wright: 39 2b, 3 3b, 10 hr, 72 RBI
Murphy: 38 2b, 4 3b, 12 hr, 63 RBI
Murphy’s numbers after the AllStar break are likely more indicative of what we can expect from him next year:
AB 266, BA .282, 2b 27, 3b 3, HR 7, RBI 35
Extrapolating those numbers based on 600 ABs over a full season would yield something in the neighborhood of …
BA .282, 65 2b, 7 3b, 17 HR, 84 RBI
Yes, the doubles are off the charts. He actually averaged one double per every 10 at-bats after the AllStar break. The figures are calculated by doubling the numbers he generated after the AllStar break and multiplying them by a co-effient of 1.2, an enhancement that accounts for 600 at-bats rather than the 532 ABs if you just doubled his post AllStar stats.
Yeah, yeah – I know its just numbers, but I would never, ever bet against Daniel Murphy. If you examine the stats of many of today’s AllStars, their numbers at age 24 are similar to Daniel Murphy’s.
If you take into account his bullet-proof character, and add Jose Reyes and, God willing, Chone Figgins in front of him, I think some of the numbers, such as BA and RBI totals, would likely improve – particularly as he gains more experience.
N.B. Hands off Francouer. The Dude performed at AllStar caliber for our sorry-@ss club with a torn tendon in his thumb. He deseerves respect, not cheap shots.
I’m having deja vu. Did you post this same murphy comment somewhere else? metsblog? no problem if you did, just making sure i’m not mad.
As for Francoeur, he did well in 308 plate appearances for the Mets, OPSing .836. But is it a “cheap shot” for ted to suggest he’ll regress to his mean? The first half of 2009 he OPSed a nightmarish .634 and the full season prior .653! 2007 was a pretty solid year but there’s a lot of reason for concern, dude.
The reason to think Murphy can improve and Jeff Francoeur can’t is that Murphy has one season at the major league level and Jeff Francoeur has nearly 3000 plate appearances over 5 seasons that tell us that he cannot adjust to major league pitchers who have figured him out. Yes, they are only a year apart, but Jeff is much “older” in MLB experience and has shown no ability to adjust his approach at the plate.
I agree that Murphy can improve and think he will to some extent, but I would still prefer to think of Murph as a plan B or C at first base.
And Tommy, not sure where those numbers for Wright are coming from, but in his first FULL year in 2005 he had 42 2b, 27 hr and got on base 39% of the time, which blows Murphy away. As a rookie, in 2004, Wright had 17 2b and 14 hr in half as many plate appearances as Murph’s 09.
I dont think the diffence in years in the majors has anything to do with the situation. The fact that Francoeur already has 4 year under his belt in the majors just shows he a much more talented player. The experience, no matter the level is the same. I dont think Jeff needs to adjust to major league pitching, the level of the pitching has nothing to do with it. He can hit major league pitching, he just need to develope more plate discipline, which is something hes lacked against all levels of pitching.
“Did Jeff Francoeur hit on your wife or something? You love to hate that guy.”
We sabremetricians don’t have wives.
We have cold numbers to warm our sense of superiority.
Women are not logically constructed. They bleed. Their breast sway in varios ways.We can’t predict their actions.
So no, Francouer did not hit on Ted’s wife.
But he gets laid a lot because he knows how to interact with humans.
I would give Murphy every chance this year and see if he can continue to make the adjustments required by a Major League player. Something Francouer has shown himself uncapable of (too date) Sustainability is the key. You cannot win consistently signing a high price free agent or two every year.