This piece on strikeouts and the Anna Karenina principle, from David Roher at something called the Harvard Sports Analysis Collective, is an interesting read.

I’m not certain exactly what Roher is concluding, and I wonder if he’s not either misstating or overstating something that is merely common sense. He notes that hitters who strike out more at the Major League level statistically produce more offensively, and writes:

For a hitter to be good enough to get at least 3.1 plate appearances per game in Major League Baseball, he has to possess some skill that prevents him from being unduly penalized by strikeouts. … hitters who are too vulnerable to the strikeout will get weeded out and thus won’t move up any further than that level.

I definitely see how selection bias, as he suggests, would produce the situation he demonstrates statistically: That strikeouts are inversely correlated to offense in the low Minors, and directly correlated to offense in Triple-A and the Majors.

His conclusion is shrouded in some loose (and perhaps forced) connection to the Anna Karenina principle, but all he seems to be saying is that strikeout-prone players are more likely to put up big offensive numbers in the Majors than they are in the low Minors.

And that strikes me as plain common sense. To get to the Majors and stick around while striking out a ton, a player almost has to be adept at hitting home runs and earning bases on balls. No one’s going to abide a slap-hitter who strikes out a lot, because slap hitters need to put the ball in play frequently to succeed.

So in most cases, the guys with the highest strikeout totals are mashers like Mark Reynolds and Ryan Howard. Then, naturally, high strikeout totals correlate to offensive production.

Also, Roher cites wOBA but doesn’t even mention how walks factor in. Players who strike out a lot at the big-league level are most likely taking more pitches than their less whiff-prone colleagues, and so they’re not only more likely to swing at a pitch they can drive when they do swing, they’re also more likely to end up ahead in counts and earning free passes.

So in other words, it’s not that strikeouts are a good thing. They’re not. It’s just that, to make it to the Majors while striking out a lot, you have to be very good at other important aspects of hitting. And that seems like it could be the cover story on Duh! Magazine.

H/T to Baseball Think Factory.