Apparently everyone has left the Winter Meetings and is in transit, meaning all forms of baseball-related media have gone quiet except for Mike Francesa, who has seized the opportunity to declare that the Mets have offered a contract to Jason Bay.
I should note that I am not listening to Francesa’s show; I find it difficult and quite likely bad for my health, so all of this information is coming second and third hand.
Anyway, Francesa apparently says the Mets have offered Bay a contract because they prefer him to Matt Holliday based on charts they have that show his power will play better at Citi Field.
This has caused an immediate uproar on Twitter and in the blogosphere, and rightfully so; Holliday appears to be a better player than Bay overall, and a younger one.
While more reliable sources have since confirmed that the Mets have made an offer to Bay, it’s important to slow down a second: Keep in mind that there’s more than just straight player evaluation at work here, and so far Francesa is, as far as I know, the only journalist who has suggested the Mets prefer Bay to Holliday.
It could be that the Mets see Bay as potentially a better value than Holliday — a far less perplexing determination. Holliday, after all, is a Scott Boras client and the premiere free agent on the market and so will likely be expensive.
Of course, his price hasn’t been set yet — neither has Bay’s — and it’s difficult to trust any of the myriad rumors that have surfaced this offseason about the salaries players will command.
The commotion online strikes me more as the fallout from a fanbase grown entirely distrustful of its front office. We’re so certain that the Mets will screw something up this offseason that we’ll take Mike Francesa’s word as proof that they already have.
Meanwhile, it does appear that right-handed pull hitters succeed at Citi Field, and Bay is a lot more pull-heavy than Holliday.
That’s not to say he’s better, of course, but it seems a pointless exercise to destroy the Mets for a move they haven’t even made yet.
Besides, if we’re going to do that, the one to target is the Bengie Molina one. That guy’s no good.