I promised hdarvick I’d post something about Nelson Figueroa yesterday and failed, but here’s something.
Conventional wisdom says that Nelson Figueroa should not be allowed to pitch more than a certain limited number of innings in any given Major League stint before he’s exposed and big-league hitters figure out his stuff, but I’ve never been much one for conventional wisdom.
Figueroa pitched well for the Mets down the stretch last season, long after the wheels had already come off for the rest of the team, and exceptionally well in Buffalo. It’s difficult to put too much stock in the 70 1/3 innings he totaled for the big-league club in 2009 because of the sample size, but they can’t be entirely discounted either. He finished with a perfectly average 100 ERA+ and a reasonable 2.46 K/BB ratio, highlighting his season with the Mets’ only shutout at Citi Field.
Figueroa has a long history of very good Triple-A stats, but he did pitch better than usual at both that level and the Majors last year, and it’s difficult to decipher why. There was probably some luck involved, since Figueroa significantly lowered his home run per flyball rate and batting average on balls in play — figures that usually normalize in time — in 2009.
Judging from Fangraphs, using a limited sample, it appears Figueroa threw his slider a bit harder, more frequently and more effectively last season than he did in 2008.
I’m not certain if that’s the whim of small sample size or the sign of a real adjustment. Figueroa is a crafty guy, and maybe he made some change to his grip or delivery that allowed him to pitch to more weak contact.
I don’t think the Mets or most of their fans would be thrilled to see Figueroa penciled into the rotation for 2010, probably because he’s unspectacular, or because he’ll be 36 in May, or because of that old conventional wisdom.
But Figueroa’s great value is in his durability. As he told me back in 2008, he has thrown 153-pitch games and 280-inning years. I’m unclear on his contract status, but he’s still listed on the 40-man roster on Mets.com, and good. He should compete for a long relief role in Spring Training and is a great option to have around for spot starts for when someone in the rotation inevitably goes down.
Tedquarters 
Figgy is a great backup to have around in AAA, especially if the Mets would think big and go after one of the high-upside injury risk guys like Sheets or Bedard.
One question: If the Mets do not trade for a #2 pitcher, in Spring Training 2010, why not let Figueroa try for a spot in the starting rotation?
You say that “Conventional wisdom says that Nelson Figueroa should not be allowed to pitch more than a certain limited number of innings in any given Major League stint before he’s exposed and big-league hitters figure out his stuff.”
On September 17, 2009, he had his only bad start after taking Santana’s spot in the starting rotation, giving up 6 runs in 5 innings to the Atlanta Braves, losing 7-3,
On September 22, 2009, he faced the Atlanta Braves again, and gave up 2 runs in 7 innings, but lost 3-1.
The Braves eight starters were identical in both games, except that Omar Infante played in the Sept. 17th game and not on the 22nd when Chipper Jones was in the line-up.
So, as far as “Conventional Wisdom,” Nelson Figueroa should be allowed to pitch as many pitches as he can in all his Major League stints because he is an intelligent pitcher and learns how to retire big-league hitters after he’s faced them. He will learn how to get them out – they will not be able to figure out his next pitch. He remembers the situations when he last faced that batter and pitches accordingly.
Here’s a wild prediction: If Nelson Figueroa makes the 2010 Mets starting rotation, he will go 20-5 and, with Johan Santana and a healthy line-up, will lead the Mets to the 2010 World Championship.
Why don’t you ask your readers who, right now, they’d have more confidence in walking to the mound in the first inning as a starter in 2010 (in alphabetical order): Nelson Figueroa, John Maine, Jonathon Niese, Mike Pelfrey, or Oliver Perez?
Competition often brings out the best in players. Omar will addd a #3 starter this month (Pineiro?,Garland?). Instead of simply giving Perez and Pelfrey stating jobs let them compete with Maine,Nieve, Niese and Figueroa for the other 3 jobs. May the best man win.
I had a kid in one of my classes the other day named Nelson Figueroa. So weird.
good post. thanks.