So John Maine had a crappy outing Grapefruit League outing yesterday, providing everybody everywhere with reason to remember John Maine.
Maine, I think, often gets lost among Ollie Perez and Mike Pelfrey in discussions of the questions in the Mets’ rotation. We talk about the Good Ollie and the Bad Ollie and whether or not Pelfrey is crazy or just the victim of the horrible defense behind him, and Maine’s sort of forgotten, with the assumption that he’ll be pretty good if he’s fully healthy, and that he may never really be fully healthy.
I was a guest on The Happy Recap Radio yesterday and we discussed Maine a bit. The knock on Maine has always seemed to be his stamina, and so I speculated that if it didn’t appear to be working out for him as a starter, he could thrive in a bullpen role. He’s got a good fastball that’s a very effective offering for him in the past, and I figure if he could dial it up a notch in shorter bursts, he could be a pretty great setup man.
It’s funny, then, that it turns out Maine chalked up his rough outing yesterday to entering the game as a reliever. To his credit, it’s not something he’s had a whole lot of practice doing — Maine has made 216 starts in college and professional ball and only seven relief appearances. (And despite that, Maine has gone on record with his choice of closer music, one of the best reasons to like John Maine.)
Anyway, the THR guys and I also discussed Maine’s injury issues the last couple of years. I wondered on the show if Maine flourished under Rick Peterson, reputed as an expert in keeping pitchers healthy through sound mechanics.
I did a little investigating this morning to see if there have been any marked differences in Maine under Dan Warthen. I used June 17, 2008 as an end date, which I realize is a bit arbitrary since obviously it’s not like Maine completely shifted to all of Warthen’s philosophies the day Warthen took over.
Anyway, here are Maine’s lines with the Mets before and after the Tuscan tile replaced the hardwood floor.
Under Peterson: 362.3 IP, 154 ER, 321 K, 142 BB, 46 HR, 3.83 ERA, 4.25 FIP
Under Warthen: 140 IP, 70 ER, 107 K, 71 BB, 16 HR, 4.50 ERA, 4.68 FIP
What does that mean? Hard to tell. The biggest difference is that Maine was a lot better at staying on the mound under Peterson, but I’m unwilling to chalk that all up to the change in pitching coaches.
Pitchers get hurt, after all, and Maine could have been well along the path to injury by the time Warthen replaced Peterson. Since the differences in FIP aren’t massive, it’s likely the Maine’s uptick in ERA is more the product of some bad luck and terrible defense, not to mention the shoulder injury.
Of course, the Warthen/Jerry Manuel team, while paired with the Mets’ front office, hasn’t done a lot to inspire confidence that it can successfully coach players back from injury.
The grand conclusion? I’ve got none, other than that Maine was good enough in 2007 and when healthy in 2008 — and heck, in his final few starts after returning from injury in 2009 — that he’s certainly earned the benefit of the doubt for 2010. One Spring Training outing shouldn’t ever change anything.
Tedquarters 
I remember there were reports that Peterson had Maine on a special schedule because he thought his motion made him susceptible to break downs. So the changes in production resulting from the injuries could be related to the switch.
For what it’s worth, I looked back at the MetsBlog archives, and the first evidence of Maine’s injuries came in late July of that year. Could easily be a coincidence — especially when you consider that Maine stayed mostly healthy in the Orioles’ system — but the timing is at the very least interesting.
For better or worse the mets deciced to go with Maine,Pelfrey, and Perez this year despite their poor performances last year. They passed on Wolf,Marquis,Pineiro, and Garland because they thought they were no better than Perez, ,Pelfrey, and Maine. I guess we’ll find out this season. I think they were wrong and that only one of the three will be a solid #3 this year.
His contract is up at the end of the year. If he can’t re-create 07, just don’t resign him.
First and foremost, it is rare for a pitcher to have a shoulder surgery and return to be as effective as he was before surgery. Guys bounce back from elbow surgery better than new, but examples of guys returning 100% from shoulder surgery are few and far between. Even if Maine’s arm is healthy he hasn’t proven he can start a full season. He has only thrown more than 170 innings once in his professional career, 191 in 2007 his best year. But when you looker deeper, 2007 was really only a good first half. His first half numbers were great (10-4 with a 2.71 ERA), his second half numbers were bad (5-6 with a 5.53 ERA).
I was really hoping for the Mets to sign another starter in the off season (not to late with Washburn still unsigned, but we all know that isn’t happening) to give them the flexibility to move Maine into the set up role. A similar move to the pen may have saved Kerry Wood’s career. Maybe Maine should “Get into” pitching in relief.