In an e-mail, reader Jim makes a good point:
One semi-obvious thing to keep in mind in the fifth-starter competition: Every year the Mets (and most other teams) have a de facto six-man rotation.
In 2009, Mets had 10 pitchers who made starts. All 10 made at least 5 starts.
That was not really an exception.
In 2008, Mets had 11 pitchers making starts. Six made five starts or more.
2007: 12 starters. Eight of them made five starts or more.
2006: 13 starters. 10 made five starts or more.
2005: 12 starters. Eight made at least five starts.
Every year there are 15 to 25 starts that will not be made by the pitchers in the five-man rotation.
It’s true, and so it’s a bit silly to fret too much about who will win the fifth starter’s job, since the rotation will ultimately change multiple times during the year.
That said, another semi-obvious point is that any team should want to get as many starts as possible from the best starters it has, and so it should spend Spring Training assessing exactly who those guys are.
And I guess the bottom line is that throughout the season, the team should be using its five best healthy arms in its rotation, which seems simple enough.
As a fan, I’m rooting for Jon Niese to crack the squad because I favor young, homegrown talent and I think Niese is an underrated prospect with a lot of upside.
But if Niese fails to distinguish himself as decidedly better than alternatives like Nelson Figueroa and Fernando Nieve, he probably shouldn’t be given the benefit of the doubt, if only because he can be sent back to the Minors without having to clear waivers and neither Figueroa or Nieve can.
Since the Mets will inevitably need another starter at some point, Niese could hone his game in Buffalo until that happens.
Of course, if Niese does show his manager and coaches that he’s markedly better than the competition, there’s no question he should open the year on the staff. He’s 23 and he’s had plenty of experience in the high Minors, so no reason to hold him back, since he inarguably has the most upside of any of the rotation candidates.
As for Hisanori Takahashi: I know he’s looked awesome in his Spring Training outings, and I know the Mets don’t think he profiles as a lefty specialist, but if he’s going to be on the big-league club, I think it should probably be in a bullpen role.
But while I’m no scout, I have a sneaking suspicion he’s been so effective in Grapefruit League play because of the hesitation in the middle of delivery. I’m guessing that’s the type of thing that would be difficult for a batter to time when he first sees it, but that he might be able to adjust to the second or third time facing Takahashi in a game. Again, not an informed opinion — just a hunch.
But if Takahashi can keep deceiving hitters and throwing strikes, he’d make a nice fit for a relief role, perhaps throwing multiple innings at a time.
I think Figueroa could handle that too, of course, and Takahashi — like Niese — could go to Buffalo without being passed through waivers.
So filling out the last few spots on the staff will take some careful handling from Omar Minaya and his crew. They must identify the pitchers who will best help the club in April, but take care not to risk losing the ones who might help them in June just to carry a couple who might not be appreciably better.
Tedquarters 
“And I guess the bottom line is that throughout the season, the team should be using its five best healthy arms in its rotation, which seems simple enough.”
But how much faith do you have in the ability of the Mets to assess that? To me it seems like Perez will be in the rotation regardless of how miserable he is.
Agreed. Maine’s having a horrible spring thus far, but nobody’s questioning his slot in the rotation.
It’s a good point. This could change as time goes on, but I think a four-headed monster of Niese, Figueroa, Takahashi and Nieve (if he sticks around) could be a lot more effective than the garbage they’ve had to throw out there in recent years — Lima, Gonzalez, Lawrence, etc.
Is Nelson Figueroa not the perfect long man? As a starter I do see him as the AAAA type who gets exposed, but as a RP, he can pitch multiple innings, whenever you need, gets hitter out, can spot start without really any notice, how is this guy not a lock for that role?
Take a look at Figgy’s game logs from last year. The “he’s good the first time through but not afterwards” theory doesn’t add up. In some of his starts, he gave up runs late; in some, he gave up runs early.
I agree about Takahashi’s deceptiveness, but I’ve been thinking that they might be better served making him the 5th man because he might have some success the first couple of times around the league. Nieve could be the long man, and Niese would be the sixth starter in waiting at AAA.
My guess is that Niese will win the 5th spot, and that the bullpen will shape up as:
K-Rod, Calero, Igarashi, Takahashi, Green, Parnell, and Feliciano.
That means that Nieve and Figueroa will have to go through waivers, and that Meija will be sent to AA.
I don’t want to lose Nieve or Figueroa on waivers, though. Nieve could get claimed – he is still young and has good stuff. Figueroa probably clears waivers but very well may choose to go play in someone else’s minor league system rather than going to Buffalo, considering the way he has been jerked around here.
WIth all the question marks in our rotation, we can’t let our depth walk away for nothing. If that means starting Niese at AAA, so be it. Its not like he’s tearing it up this spring. And its not like we’re not going to need him later on.
I agree with you that Takahashi belongs in the pen. I hate the mindset that because he is left handed he has to be a lefty specialist. Are really going to hold it against him that he gets lefties and righties out equally well?
We need relievers who can throw strikes, and it looks like he can do that.
There should be room for both Figueroa and Takahashi in the pen, especially if Calero isn’t ready to start the season. I would rather have them over Green and Parnell who have proven that they cannot throw strikes consistently.
Thank you!! Someone finally has said what I have been saying for 3 years!
Just because a guy is left handed doesn’t mean we need to pitch him only against leftys. For too long we have been going with only matchups like that. It hurts our bullpen when Feliciano has to come in 3 games in a row. Have faith in guys to get both rightys and leftys out, it will build their confidence. Don’t get me wrong if Utley, Howard and Ibanez are coming up in the 8th inning, I expect to see a lefty come in.
The same goes for hitting!! I cannot tell you how much I hate it that Manuel won’t let Murphy hit against left-handed pitching. This is going to apply to Ike Davis too. If you don’t let him see left-handed pitching how is ever going to develop????
Oh, and the Mets claimed in the 2008 offseason they did not want a left handed bat in their lineup which is why they did not pursue Ibanez. Guess what, he hits left-handed pitching better than right-handed.
… kinda like Wagner held righties to a lower BAA than lefties.
Manuel has repeatedly said he wants to find a “crossover guy” who gets both righties and lefties out. Takahashi looks like that could very well be him.
Sadly, this organization seems intent on earning a reputation for saying one thing and doing something completely different – like saying they will build around pitching, speed and defense, then making their only significant signing an indifferent defender with no real speed for left field.
Yeah, we have had two managers in a row who have been strictly “by the book.” Frustrating.
It’s frustrating to see a guy like Murphy go 3-4 with 2 doubles and be benched the next night because a lefty is pitching.
It’s not just Murphy either.
And not Cliff Lee, but a guy like Jamie Moyer
Healthy starters with the potential to be effective are a precious commodity in baseball, especially when they are cheap and young.
In my opinion, you do what you can to stockpile them, and the Mets seem to have several of these guys. They also have a few veteran starters that fit the same bill (minus the youth). Figueroa and Takahashi are affordable and healthy.
From the Billy Beane school of thought, what I would do is slot Niese in as your #4 and look to trade away a more expensive and less reliable talent like John Maine. Other teams may have interest in Maine, who has a track record of sorts, and if you feel you can replace him with a cheap, young and healthy Niese and get similar production, then make the move. At that point you can then use a Nieve, Figueroa or Takahashi as your #5. In turn, Maine may help you bring in a prospect at a position where you can use help (2B, C, bullpen).
I personally do what I can to keep ALL of them, and trade away what I do not need for something I do need. Last thing I want to do is lose a potential commodity just to make room for a prospect.
OB, that was the most coherent thought regarding Mets pitching I’ve read in 3 years. Thank you.
Haha, thanks B
I don’t think you’d get much more than a bag of magic beans in exchange for Maine at this point, a five-inning starter coming off shoulder surgery and a 15-start season mixed with multiple trips to the DL.
Don’t get me wrong, I hope that he can get back his ’07 form, but trading him now would be selling low.
I agree about Takahashi, but his repertoire and Control can make him a strong consideration because he may be able to go deeper in games, that is what makes he, Niese, more valuable than Nieve. W/out making a trade involving them I don’t see Misch, or Nieve, or Figgy being let go. I think they all make the roster with Niese going to AAA to hone his skills (he got off to a slow start last year, he has four pitches and may need to work on them a little longer, plus they can limit his innings down there to keep him fresh down the stretch, with my guess Takahashi or Mish as the 5th starter and Figgy as the long man, Nieve, another righty out of the pen until he develops a legit 3rd pitch.
This situation is the exact type that Omar and the Mets always seem to screw up: roster management. Look what they did last year when they lost O’Day just because Pelphrey needed to miss a start. I can already predict what they are going to end up doing. They are going to keep a bunch of guys who still have options like Niese, Mejia, Parnell and Takahashi while exposing and losing all the guys who have to clear waivers like Nieve, Misch and Figeroa. Then when those guys or others like Green or Maine flame out or get hurt they will have nothing left behind them in the minors to back them up.
To me the sensible thing is to keep all the guys who are out of options, as long as they keep pitching well in spring, on the opening day roster. Then if they continue riding the wave great and you just continue developing the young guys in case of injury which is guaranteed to occur. If they flame out once the real games begin then you have the young guys in the minors ready to replace them at a moments notice and there will be less chance of anyone claiming them after just getting smacked around in the bigs as opposed to after pitching well in spring.
Not to mention that other teams’ rosters will be full after spring and will not have room for Figgy, Nieve, etc. if they have to clear waivers after the season starts…
Can John Maine net us a reliable shortstop who can then take over second when Jose returns?
I think you seriously under-evaluate Takahashi. He keeps the ball low, has amazing control and isn’t afraid to throw strikes. He has pitcher’s brains and that’s rare. I’ve been watching baseball a long time and he reminds me of Glavine before he had to pitch solely on guile.
And if it is his motion Nomo has success a few years until hitters caught on, so lets ride that to some wins then.
You might be on to something Dave. But Takahashi has been pitching out of the bullpen in the middle innings against very suspect lineups, and often after the few starters have called it a day. I’d like to see them give him a start against a good lineup to help evaluate how effective his guile and command will be against major league hitters.
I’m intrigued by his command, arsenal and delivery. He could be very effective the first couple of times through the league.