The streak is over.
If Jeff Francoeur had walked tonight, it would have represented a reasonably rare baseball event. By my count, Francoeur, in his 4 1/2-year career, has unintentionally walked in three consecutive games only five times — twice in 2007 and thrice in 2008.
So it has happened a little more than once per season across his career. In the game of baseball, Jeff Francoeur walking on three straight nights happens — very roughly — about as often as no-hitters. It’s not perfect-game rare or unassisted triple play rare, but it’s rare nonetheless.
And Frenchy thought he had it tonight, too. He looked at a pitch he was sure was ball four in the fourth inning, got a big grin on his face and started trotting down to first, only to be called back to bat by the home-plate umpire.
He ultimately doubled, driving in the Mets’ only run, so it was certainly better he didn’t take his base in this case — the novelty notwithstanding.
I’ve gotten a couple of Twitter messages and an email about Francoeur’s two-game season-opening walk streak. Nearly all of the notes are in jest, but I figured I’d address them because it makes for a neat example of how small sample sizes, taken in isolation, can be deceiving.
In his career, Frenchy has unintentionally walked, on average, 27 times per every 162 games. That’s exactly 1 in 6, which is amazingly convenient, and the reason I bothered with this.
It’s not a perfect analogy because Francoeur can — and has, in some instances — walk more than once per game. Plus he has walked more in some seasons than others.
But saying, for the sake of it, Francoeur walks once every six games, then the chance of him walking in a game is the same as a certain digit coming up on a dice roll — we’ll go with 4, in honor of the occasion — on consecutive rolls. Maybe you’d snicker if you rolled two fours on the first two of 162 rolls, but you certainly wouldn’t bat an eye if consecutive fours came up somewhere in the middle.
I certainly hope Francoeur’s walks are not random, and are an indication that he has finally made good on a career’s worth of promises to improve his plate discipline –weighting the dice, so to speak. Put me down for skeptical, though, especially since one of the walks came amidst Florida’s epic bullpen meltdown on Wednesday night.
He’s hitting, though, and that’s obviously what matters most. I’m sure being more selective helps.
I just hope that they hit enough to be a winning team. But right now I wonder if that can happen.
You can tell if you watch him he’s actually recognizing pitches instead of wildly swinging at anything near the zone. i think the work with HoJo and DW is paying off.
I think in the grand scheme of things its easier to learn not to hit than to hit. He’s young still, there’s hope.
Besides why rain on one of the few positives in this early season?