Seriously, though: Last night, in the top of the ninth inning, Jerry Manuel decided to pinch-hit Gary Matthews Jr. and his .457 OPS for Chris Carter, the team’s No. 3 hitter in the game. Manuel did this because he hoped Matthews could bunt Luis Castillo into scoring position.
Castillo got into scoring position all by himself thanks to Billy Wagner’s wild pitch. But even with Castillo on second and even after Matthews, against all odds, worked the count to 3-1, Manuel still wanted him bunting. Why? Well, duh: Because Matthews hasn’t been swinging the bat well.
Which is exactly why he shouldn’t be pinch-hitting for the No. 3 hitter in the top of the ninth in a tie game.
Nevermind that Carter probably shouldn’t have been the No. 3 hitter. This space is not for ripping Chris Carter, one of the few Mets ripping the ball recently. And nevermind that Wagner is a southpaw and Carter hits lefthanded; Wagner has demonstrated almost no platoon advantage in his career and Carter’s, in the minors, was small. Small enough that he’s still almost certainly a better hitter against lefties than Gary Matthews Jr. Heck, if Manuel was so dead set on having a righty up against Wagner, he probably would have been better off sending Carter up to bat on the wrong side of the plate than Matthews and his .457 OPS.
Nevermind that. Mind why a manager would want to sacrifice bunt a decent runner to third base when there are no outs in the inning. (And the top of an inning, no less, with a bullpen far from guaranteed to shut the Braves out in the bottom half.)
To set up the sac fly, I guess. But why give up one of your most valuable commodities — outs — to put a runner on third for David Wright, with all his well-documented recent struggles to make contact?
Of course, Manuel didn’t trust Matthews to swing away, and he initially had Matthews in the game for his ability to bunt Castillo into scoring position. That’s a much more defensible strategy, if still a frustrating one. And probably the manager didn’t want to “show up” his player by pinch-hitting for him in the middle of an at-bat. Instead he just showed him up by not letting him swing on a 3-1 count with a runner on second.
Whatever. Whatever, whatever.
Manuel is managing with his back to the wall or his head on the chopping block or whatever other convenient metaphor you want to use to say, “in serious jeopardy of losing his damn job.” And apparently, when desperate to win games, Manuel will tell his players to bunt in every remotely feasible situation.
Manuel seems like a genuinely good guy. The players appear to enjoy playing for him. The media likes him too — after all, after Willie Randolph, it’s refreshing to cover a manager who will explain his thinking in clearer terms than just, “going with my guys” and “grindin’.”
But if the Mets are going to can Manuel eventually, they should just, you know, do it. Not for any nebulous issues of leadership, not because David Wright now seems to strike out constantly, not because Manuel’s big “throw strikes” philosophy from Spring Training has the team leading the Majors in walks. No manager in the world should be expected to convince Oliver Perez to reliably throw the ball over the plate.
Manuel is too often failing his team in the real, measurable, tactical aspects of managing. Ironically, in his urgency to win games, he is helping the team lose them: Overtaxing his relievers, relying way too heavily on platoon splits, and of course, bunting incessantly.
Tedquarters 
I think its telling when Wilpon said that the reason he didnt fire Manuel the other day was because “if he was going to can the manager this early, it means he should have done it to begin with”. These guys just have a serious aversion to owing up to their mistakes. If docs can get sued for their errors, I think a fanbase should be able to sue the owners for gross negligence and malpractice!
Two things:
1) Why do you have all that bunting?
2) This organization does seem to be a complete shambles right now. As much as I want to see Jerry gone, his coaches gone, and Omar gone, I’m just not sure that it’ll help at all under this ownership. Fred and Jeff’s unwillingness to own up to mistakes (as Shamik notes above) will be a problem for as long as they own the team. Someone needs to convince them to hire some smart people for the FO and then stay out of the way.
I don’t have that much bunting. I wish I did. I took that photo in the press box in Savannah, then realized today I had the perfect excuse to publish it.
To Heb’s comment below, I don’t remember, but I believe that was indeed a short stack of shelves and not a desk. It might be a table with a shelf below it, though.
That looks suspiciously more like a desk than a shelf, but I guess “Time to desk the bunting” doesn’t really work as a headline. At least the article was related to the headline, which is more than I can say for some NY newspapers.
As far as canning the manager (no tuna canning plant photo?), while it seems like such a sound idea on so many levels, it should be noted the Mets in their (glorious?) history have made 10 mid-season managerial changes. None have led to a post-season berth in the season of the change, and only 1 of the new managers has ever led the team to the post-season. That was Bobby Valentine, 3 full seasons after he was hired.
So while there may be a rather large and thoughtful group asking for a new manager, expectations of results from that change should be tempered based on historical precedent.
Yeah, FWIW I don’t think Bob Melvin or anyone else is going to lead the Mets into the playoffs in 2010 with their current roster. I just don’t want to watch them bunt anymore.
Great post Ted. Must take exception to the line: “Manuel seems like a genuinely good guy.”
I’m sorry, but bantering with reporters and admiring MLK/Gandhi does not a good guy make.
His treatment of Church, the capricious way he puts players in his doghouse, the subtle shots/digs he takes at players (Carter’s defense, “you want me to hit barajas 4th?”), the way he’ll blame anyone and everyone else for the team’s struggles, etc.
He may be a Machiavellian bad guy who knows how to hide it, but he’s a bad guy nonetheless.
I really wish someone would show Manuel the chart that shows how your odds of scoring decrease just about every time you bunt. Counting last night’s game, plus Reyes’ two failed bunt attempts, there’s now 3 instances in the last week where the erroneous strategy of bunting has severely hampered their ability to succeed when the game was there for the taking.
Yeah, what kind of NL manager has his hitters (often in the 3-hole) bunting in a close game with runner on 1st and/or 2nd and 0 out?
Oh, almost all of them…
FIRE BOB MELVIN!
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/PIT/PIT200705190.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/ARI/ARI200706090.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/ARI/ARI200709210.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SDN/SDN200804260.shtml
FIRE JOE TORRE!
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/ANA/ANA200906190.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/ANA/ANA200906190.shtml
FIRE BOBBY VALENTINE!!!
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CIN/CIN199804180.shtml
That’s excellent research, but none of those situations were the same. Bunting with runners on first and second is a lot different than bunting with just a runner on second. It kills the forceout and so lessens the chance of a double play.
And regardless, just because a lot of people have done it doesn’t make it the right call. As far as I understand, people have been making misguided sacrifices since Biblical times.
The second Joe Torre link should’ve gone here, which is the same situation. (Runner on 2nd, 0 out, tie game, 3-hitter bunting)
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/LAN/LAN200905220.shtml
It’s not always the right call, but it’s not always the wrong call either.
It’s situational. Is the pitcher prone to being wild which would allow a fast runner on 3rd to score on a wild pitch or passed ball? Didn’t we just see a game end like that in Florida?
Who is coming up afterwards? Are they capable of hitting a sac fly to score the go-ahead run? (Hypothetically, David Wright would be if this wasn’t 2010.)
Is the hitter adept enough at sac bunting to begin with? Orlando Hudson, Erick Aybar, Eric Byrnes, Luis Castillo, yes. Jose Reyes, apparently less so.
Has the offense been able to string together many hits in the game at all or are they scrapping just to get on base?
In your interview with Bob Ojeda, I am not surprised that he prefers the 1 out with man on 3rd situation. But he’s also not taking into account all that could go wrong with a go-ahead run on 3rd base, instead of on 2nd base. Plus, how many times have we seen teams bring the infield in hoping for a ground ball in order to throw the runner out at home, only to have the infielder make a bad or wild throw to the catcher and the runner scores anyways?
There are many legitimate reasons to bust on Jerry Manuel.
This isn’t one of them.
While I have no reservations about busting on Jerry for that decision, the stats say it didn’t make a huge difference either way. According to the bb-Ref boxscore, the Mets had precisely the same chance of winning — 33% — before and after the bunt.
But since that stat doesn’t factor in the pitch count and the bunt was still on in a 3-1 count, an overwhelmingly favorable situation even for GMJ, I’d still contend it was the wrong move. Especially considering how infrequently Wright has been putting the ball in play of late.