Change we try to believe in

This morning, I went to Howard Megdal’s press conference announcing his intention to campaign to be the Mets’ general manager.

Howard is a friend and a colleague, and I’m always intrigued by offbeat movements within the Mets’ fanbase. I visited the ill-fated Jenrry Mejia rally back in March, as well.

And when Howard stepped to the podium and read a lengthy, well-penned speech announcing his hopes to run the team with logic and transparency, I couldn’t help but consider how closely so many of his big-picture arguments for how the Mets should be operated resonated with all I’ve written here and elsewhere. After all, on matters pertaining to baseball and the Mets, Howard and I frequently agree.

But here’s the issue: The Mets are winning games. Eight of their last nine, 35 of 63 for the season. On the year, they’ve outscored their opponents by 36 runs. They’ve been playing good defense and running the bases exceptionally well. Their pitching has been a surprise and their offense appears to be starting to click.

It’s awesome. Straight up. And while there are still legitimate gripes to be made whenever Alex Cora takes another step toward locking up $2 million of the Mets’ 2011 payroll, and whenever prized pitching prospect Jenrry Mejia throws a mopup inning with an eight-run lead, it’s difficult to complain about a team succeeding so frequently, and it makes fans less likely to jump aboard any movement to shake things up in the team’s front office.

And what matters most, of course, is that it lasts.

Through 63 games, the Mets’ offense has posted a 94 OPS+, a hair below average for the National League. But two of the Mets’ best hitters — Jason Bay and Jose Reyes — have significantly underperformed their lines from their past few (healthy) seasons, and it’s reasonable to expect both to be more productive offensively moving forward. Only Rod Barajas has been much better than could be expected. Second base has been, to date, a complete black hole of offense.

So the Mets should actually be even better offensively moving forward. Just having Gary Matthews Jr. off the team and not wasting at-bats should help them improve. The bench is much better now that it has got Chris Carter on it. If Carlos Beltran ever returns, that’ll obviously help too.

As for the pitching: Against all odds, Mets pitchers have been great this year, posting a 109 ERA+ that’s well above the league average.

Problem is, it appears to be fueled by unsustainable performances. Johan Santana and Mike Pelfrey have been great and should continue to have success, but neither has the type of peripheral numbers that suggest they’ll be able to keep their ERAs below 3.00. There’s certainly something to be said for pitching to weak contact — especially when half your games are in Citi Field — but as the weather warms up both pitchers will likely allow a few more home runs.

Jon Niese, who actually has a better K:BB ratio than either Santana or Pelfrey, has been great. It won’t all be one-hit shutouts for Niese as the league gets more of a look at him, but his performance isn’t terribly out of line with his Minor League history. Hisanori Takahashi and R.A. Dickey are wild cards, but it’s hard to expect either to continue pitching quite as well as they have.

It never seems like his saves come easily, but Francisco Rodriguez has been excellent out of the bullpen. His K-rate is as high and his walk rate as low as they’ve been in several years.

The rest of the bullpen has been far less impressive. Pedro Feliciano has a low ERA but has allowed an enormous amount of baserunners. Raul Valdes had been great until a couple of terrible outings in San Diego. Mejia and Fernando Nieve have both walked nearly as many batters as they’ve struck out, and Ryota Igarashi has been downright awful since returning from the disabled list.

Still, it’s hard to get a decent read on the bullpen since so many of its members are dealing with very small samples. And now that John Maine and Ollie Perez are out of the starting rotation, Jerry Manuel hasn’t been overusing any one reliever. It will be interesting to see how they perform with more rested arms.

So can the Mets remain in contention? It’s starting to seem that way. They’ve got flaws, of course, and it would be silly to expect the starting pitchers to perform as well as they have for the past few weeks. But an improved offense can mitigate that regression. The Braves appear strong and the Phillies will likely soon start playing better, but the Mets look apt to stay in the playoff hunt.

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