“We have enough as it is right now, but there’s nothing wrong with improving what we have,” Santana said at his charity bowling tournament Monday night in Manhattan…
“We’ve been playing great, but to go out and add a guy like (Oswalt or Lee), it might put us over the top,” Pelfrey said. “You would definitely love to have those guys on your team. I think those are some of the elite pitchers in the game. It definitely can help if you go out and get them.”
Pelfrey made sure to stress that such a decision is “above my pay-grade,” while adding, “I feel pretty comfortable with the guys we have … so I don’t know if it’s a necessity. If they’re able to bring them on board, it’s great. If they don’t, I think we’ll be fine.”
– Peter Botte, N.Y. Daily News.
Breaking: Mike Pelfrey respects the chain of command. Also, Pelfrey and Johan Santana both think Roy Oswalt and Cliff Lee are good pitchers who would help the Mets, but that the Mets are doing pretty well without them. Nothing shocking here.
Speculating about the trade market is one of the most fun things about being a fan and often one of the most frustrating things about talking to other fans.
Anyone can argue that the Mets should push to acquire one of Oswalt, Lee or Dan Haren, and hey, any of those guys would significantly increase the Mets’ chances of sustaining a pennant run in 2010.
But it’s never that simple, obviously. First, it’s important to consider the costs and risks involved. As well as the Mets have been playing, there’s always some chance that they’ll fall out of contention even with an additional front-line starter.
Though the added depth in the rotation will undoubtedly make the team better, Santana and Pelfrey are both outpitching their peripherals this season and it’s eminently possible that more than one of Hisanori Takahashi, Jon Niese and R.A. Dickey will struggle as the league becomes more familiar with their repertoires. And the threat of injuries always looms. Trading a gaggle of prospects means jeopardizing the team’s long-term success, and it would be a shame to do so in the name of anything less than a playoff berth.
Then again, success in baseball can be fleeting, and there’s an understandable urge to go all-in when things appear to be falling the right way for a team — as they are for the 2010 Mets. I generally rail against the idea of trading prospects for quick fixes and rentals, but since prospects are never guaranteed to pan out and championships should trump everything, there are times when it’s right to trade for established stars.
Regardless, lumping Lee, Haren and Oswalt together as though they are interchangeable is silly. They are different pitchers and they have wildly distinct contract situations that will impact both their cost on the trade market and their value to their team.
Lee is awesome and enjoying a spectacular season. In 2010, he has more wins than walks allowed. His 2.55 ERA is actually a half a run higher than his FIP.
But Lee is only signed for the rest of this season. It’s a safe bet he’ll continue being awesome — though probably not this awesome — for the rest of 2010, but he reportedly hopes to test the free-agent market in the offseason. The upside to that, for an acquiring team, means he essentially comes with two high draft picks. The downside is that he’s a rental in the purest sense of the term, and whatever established prospects it will likely take to land him will be a more known quantity — and likely closer to the Majors — than the 2011 picks.
Oswalt is very good and having an excellent season after two in which he showed signs of decline. But Oswalt is set to make $16 million in 2011 with a $16 million option for 2012 that will require a $2 million buyout.
That’s a little above the market rate for a pitcher of Oswalt’s caliber, and he is 32 and not getting any younger. Trading for him means taking on his contract, which, while far from a disaster, will make any team a whole lot less flexible to spend money in the offseason. Of course, the size of his contract should also lower his price in prospects on the trade market.
Haren is excellent, but having a season below his usual standards. He has been one of the best and most durable starters in the National League for the past several years, but in 2010 he has been victimized by career highs in BABIP and home run/flyball rate — indicators of bad luck.
Haren’s contract will pay him $12.75 million in 2011 and 2012, and includes a $15.5 million club option for 2013 with a $3.5 million buyout. He’s only 29, so it’s reasonable to expect him to maintain something close to his standard exceptional level of performance for the length of the deal. Haren represents a massive bargain to any acquiring club.
Of course, there are few signs that the Diamondbacks are ready to enter sell mode, and since Haren is a valuable commodity on a reasonable contract, it’s hard to see what — short of a complete fire sale — would motivate the club to trade him. Even if they don’t aim to contend in 2010, Haren should be a big part of their plans for the future.
Lee, Oswalt and Haren are not the same. Haren should cost the most in terms of prospects, but also appears to be by far the most worthwhile acquisition for any team’s future. Lee should cost less, but will provide less. Oswalt should come cheapest of the three due to his expensive contract.
“Oswalt should come cheapest of the three due to his expensive contract.”
There’s a wry rhetorical charm to that statement. Somewhere, Oliver Perez’s immaculate beard hair stands on end.
And what of Mr. Sheets?
He stinks?
Other than the obvious risk of getting hurt again (although he has been durable so far this year), his numbers are dismal. Career worst across the board, and a snappy ERA+ of 84.
Now, if he comes for scraps (so Oakland can get rid of salary), and you think he will be much better in the 2nd half (knocking off the rust?) then he is an interesting flyer. But you can’t trade anything of value for him. Just absorb the crazy money he is due.
“Santana and Pelfrey are both outpitching their peripherals this season”
Wait. Does this mean they’re benefiting from luck or being victimized (a bit) by luck? I thought the latter but wasn’t sure.
it means they’re benefiting from some combination of luck, defense and park factors. If it’s park factors then they won’t necessarily regress.
Pelfrey:
ERA: 2.69
FIP: 3.61
xFIP: 4.12
Santana:
ERA: 3.31
FIP: 3.90
xFIP: 4.71
Their ERAs are both significantly lower than their FIP figures and therefore both are benefiting from good luck.
Haren is a TERRIBLE pitcher in the 2nd half every year. I hope they avoid him!!