The start was an important one because it was Niese’s second of the season against the Reds. (He gave up four runs in a no-decision on May 5.) A young pitcher like Niese may be able to befuddle hitters the first time around, but the second time, they lose the advantage that comes with their unfamiliarity.

– Thomas Kaplan, New York Times.

This is a point I hear made pretty frequently, and one I’ve definitely considered here numerous times. But I wonder if it’s true. Is there any evidence to back up the claim that a pitcher does better against his opponents the first time he faces them?

Also, even if there is, I’d have to guess it is at least partly attributable to the same logic that explains the beginner’s luck fallacy. The notion of “beginner’s luck” exists because people who win when they first start gambling are more likely to keep gambling, since they’ve been rewarded. If they lost from the outset, they’re more likely to leave the casino. When they win from the start, they stay long enough for the odds to catch up to them, and so when they see someone else win early they say, “aww, beginner’s luck.”

If a young pitcher gets rocked by an opponent in his first start against them, there’s a pretty good chance he’s getting rocked by lots of opponents and he’s not going to last in the Majors long enough to make a second start against any team. If he succeeds his first go-round, he’ll get more chances, and so more opportunities to fail. I’m pretty sure that’s a big factor in the Verducci Effect and “sophomore jinx,” too — no one’s looking for regression from pitchers who sucked in the first place.

Anyway, that’s just something I’m thinking of and has nothing to do with Jon Niese. At least not yet, I guess.

Niese lost last night and got tagged for a couple homers, but he struck out eight guys while walking only one in 7 2/3 innings. That’s excellent.

In fact, Niese’s 2.61 K:BB ratio is the best among Mets starters this year. He’s inducing 49.5% groundballs. Straight up, the kid is good.

People always seem to talk about him as, at best, a middle-of-the-rotation innings eater. But considering his strong start to his career and very good Minor League peripherals, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect a little more than that. He could certainly struggle with a little more exposure, like the quote above suggests, but there’s no evidence that he’s been unduly lucky in his rookie campaign.

Niese has been one of the least heralded reasons for the Mets’ success this year, I think. If he keeps this up, though, that will change. With Jason Heyward hurt and Stephen Strasburg’s innings set to be limited, Niese may contend for NL Rookie of the Year.